IDI - Israel Democracy Institute

10/14/2026

As Israelis prepare to vote in their next government, IDI’s latest Israeli Voice Index finds that Jewish Israelis’ top two agenda items are a law requiring equal military service for young ultra-Orthodox men in the IDF and a State Commission of Inquiry investing the events of October 7.

Among Arab Israelis, 53% support taking determined action against Jewish settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank, and 58% want the next government to explore the possibility of negotiations with the Palestinians.

Some additional highlights:

➡️ Israelis are divided over recent reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu was warned weeks before October 7 of a planned Hamas attack: 46% do not find them credible, while 43% believe them.

➡️ 63% of Israelis think the reports’ release was timed to influence the upcoming elections.

➡️ Looking back at past governments’ policy of allowing or encouraging Jewish settlements in the West Bank, 63% of Jewish Israelis say it was correct, while 50% of Arab Israelis say it was not. Jewish Israelis are politically divided: 81% on the Right consider the policy correct, compared with 40% in the Center and 19% on the Left.

Explore the major issues shaping Israel today as the country prepares for national elections: https://bit.ly/3WpjL9Y

10/13/2026

As Israel’s election campaign enters its final stretch, we’re likely to hear confident predictions. However, a closer look at public opinion may tell a different story.

Prof. Tamar Hermann, Director of IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, shares three surprising insights - even for Israelis!

➡️ First – Voters say the cost of living drives their vote, yet political parties across the spectrum are more or less aligned on economic policy, and it is not a key issue defining the debate like ultra-Orthodox military enlistment.

➡️ Second – A new governing coalition does not necessarily mean more room to maneuver: 55–60% of Jewish Israelis identify as Right-wing, so strategic changes must be weighed carefully to avoid losing public backing.

➡️ Third – Some expect first-time and overseas voters to boost the ‘change bloc’ opposing Netanyahu, but more religious communities’ higher birth rates give the Right-wing camp a bigger boost from young voters, and too few overseas voters can realistically fly in to change the election result.
Keep these points in mind as you follow the race to October 27.

Follow along for more IDI expert analysis, and find the latest public opinion polling, explainers, and our new “Elections 101” series on IDI’s elections hub: https://bit.ly/4hYNcaj

10/13/2026

For decades, public opinion polls have helped track election races and show which way the political winds are blowing. But what happens when election forecasts look like polls without surveying real voters?

In a new analysis, IDI experts examine two emerging tools: prediction markets like Polymarket, which reflect traders’ expectations about election outcomes, and AI-based simulations, which simulate how voters would respond. Both can have the numerical, scientific look of polls: a 63% chance of victory or 31 seats in Israel’s Knesset. This raises concerns because forecasts can contain methodological errors while carrying the same authority as a professional poll. Prediction markets can also feed a feedback loop: traders respond to political news, prices change, and those changes become headlines, presented as independent evidence of who is ahead. Turning to Israel, IDI’s experts propose that the Central Elections Committee apply the same polling rules to these forecasts’ publication, including transparency requirements, clear warnings, and publication restrictions, when voters could reasonably perceive them as election measurements or predictions.

Understand how prediction markets are shaping the election information landscape in the full analysis by IDI’s Dr. Tehilla Shwartz Altshuler, Dr. Guy Lurie, and Dr. Rachel Aridor-Hershkovitz: https://bit.ly/4zzcX8h

10/08/2026

“We are all post-traumatic after October 7th, and this, in a way, brings us together. However…even on this memorial day, the third anniversary for October 7th is perceived differently by different people.”
IDI’s Prof. Tamar Hermann speaks to BBC Newshour Radio about the public mood three years after October 7 and why the public is not necessarily “united.”

Prof. Hermann traces these divisions back to before the outbreak of the war, when widespread protests spanned eight months leading up to Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel. The two camps were divided between those who believed the government sought to “overhaul” Israel’s judicial system and those who believed it needed “reform.”

Today, she explains, recent reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu allegedly received advance warnings that could have helped prevent the October 7 attack are viewed differently by these camps. Government opponents accept the reports as reliable, while supporters believe he was let down by the security agencies, which did not warn him. She says, “This is exactly where the two sides diverge.”

Listen to the full interview: https://bit.ly/4dros94

10/07/2026

"October 7 is kind of a framework for the entire political discussion that is going on,” says IDI’s Prof. Tamar Hermann to AP News. “All of us are post-traumatic in a way.”

Prof. Hermann, Director of IDI’s Viterbi Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, discussed how the tragedy of October 7th plays a central role for over 60% of the Israeli public when deciding which party to vote for. Yet what this means for the election outcome is less clear, as she says the past three years have hardened attitudes on both sides of the political divide. “Just because everyone says Oct. 7 is important, doesn’t mean that they will come out with the same conclusion.”

Read the full article -

As Israel gears up for national elections this month, the country remains focused on Oct. 7. The Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks are at the forefront of a bitter campaign that will determine the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

10/06/2026

Three years ago, on October 7, 2023, Israel’s reality was upended in a single day when Hamas launched a surprise attack, brutally taking the lives of more than a thousand Israelis and seizing 251 hostages. Since this moment, Israel has been engaged in a long, multi-front war. As Israel commemorates and marks this seismic event, the country is also preparing for national elections in less than three weeks. In a recent IDI survey, 68% of Jewish Israelis said the events of October 7 are a factor in deciding which party to vote for, compared with 32% of Arab Israelis.

Reflecting on the anniversary and the approaching elections, IDI President Yohanan Plesner notes that, “October 7 is casting a long shadow over these elections. Questions of security, accountability and whether the lessons of the attack have truly been learned will weigh heavily on many voters as they make their choice. More than three years later, Israel still lacks an independent, authoritative account of what went wrong, and what needs to be fixed to rectify the terrible failures. This makes the formation of a state commission of inquiry by the next government as essential as ever.”

Learn more in IDI’s latest Israeli Voice Index conducted last month: https://bit.ly/4z8zBnu

10/04/2026

In every Israeli election, parties spend tens of millions of shekels each on their campaigns. Did you know that these campaigns are almost entirely publicly funded?

In a new explainer, Dr. Assaf Shapira, Head of IDI’s Political Reform Program, lays out the campaign financing process in Israel. He explains that while political parties can, in principle, finance their campaigns through private contributions or party membership dues, in practice 99.7% of parties' campaign financing came from state funding in the 2022 election. The amount of public funding is calculated using a formula based on the number of parliamentary seats a party won in previous elections, or for new parties, the number of seats won in the current election. Funding is paid in three stages: an advance payment prior to the election, after the results are published, and after the State Comptroller completes an audit of all the campaign accounts. Shapira explains that parties can also run a deficit when they spend more on their campaigns than they receive in funding, potentially leaving them with outstanding debt.

Learn everything you need to know about how Israel’s parties are financing their campaigns this election season: https://bit.ly/3W6LrAg

09/24/2026

One issue Israelis are paying attention to ahead of the election is Israel's relationship with the United States, and today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the US, addressing not only the United Nations General Assembly but also Israelis who will be tuning in from Israel.

As Israelis think about which party to vote for next month, how important do they consider Israel–US relations?

IDI’s most recent Israeli Voice Index survey found mixed results in the Israeli public. Half consider the issue important to their voting decision, while 45% do not. Among Jewish Israelis, 55% consider it important, compared with 26.5% of Arab Israelis.

However, the picture changes depending on which party Israelis plan to vote for. Among those planning to vote for both opposition and coalition parties, a majority say Israel–US relations are important to their voting decision.

By contrast, only a minority of those planning to vote for the coalition’s Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, or the Arab parties, believe it is an important factor.

Read the full index and check out IDI’s 2026 elections hub for more public opinion polling and the key issues on the agenda this election season: https://bit.ly/4dOmQ9q

09/23/2026

Israelis will be marking two significant moments this October: elections for their next government and three years since October 7, with a war that continues on multiple fronts.

As these moments draw nearer, Dr. Eran Shamir-Borer, Director of IDI’s Center for Security and Democracy, highlights what he’s paying attention to this election season:

➡️ First – The crisis of trust in the police: Israel faces unprecedented violent crime, and public trust in the police is at an all-time low. Rebuilding trust requires a lawful, effective and politically independent police force.

➡️ Second – The IDF reserve-service model: Israel needs a new model that better addresses the human and economic toll of reserve service, ensuring the burden of service is shared by a larger part of Israeli society.

➡️ Third – Israel’s international legal standing: Amid international legal battles that weaken Israel's legitimacy, it must show allies it abides by international law and has independent, professional legal institutions.

The next government’s choices on these three key issues will shape Israel’s ability to prosper as a secure and democratic state.

Follow along for more IDI expert analysis, and find the latest public opinion polling, explainers, and our new “Elections 101” series on IDI’s elections hub: https://bit.ly/4dOmQ9q

09/18/2026

Yom Kippur is observed by a large majority of Israelis – including many who do not identify as religious.

A new IDI analysis finds that approximately three-quarters (74%) of Jewish Israelis fast on Yom Kippur, and a majority (57%) typically attend Yom Kippur services.

Fasting is essentially universal across Israel's ultra-Orthodox, national religious, and traditional religious sectors. 90% of those who identify as traditional non-religious observe the full fast (77%) or a partial fast (13%), and 47% of secular Israelis fast either in full (28%) or partially (19%).

Learn more about the unique day in Jewish and Israeli culture in a special analysis by IDI's Dr. Ariel Finkelstein, Ya'ari Padan, and Shlomit Ravitsky Tur-Paz, released as Israelis prepare for Yom Kippur: https://bit.ly/4j9Y4nH