07/05/2026
Why Sara Lost Tapaz in the 2022 Election
Disclaimer: This post presents a political geography analysis based on available data (Election 2022). It is not affiliated with any campaign and is not intended to favor or disfavor any candidate.
A barangay-level analysis of the 2022 vice-presidential returns reveals that Sara Duterte lost Tapaz due to the concentrated voting power of the adjacent Tapaz–Bingawan corridor. While Duterte won several isolated barangays within Tapaz, the contiguous cluster of barangays in the Bingawan area, optimized by the national Bingawan–Tapaz Road, delivered a compact and efficient landslide for Kiko Pangilinan, consistent with the geographic principle of the neighborhood effect. This multi-barangay unit generated a vote surplus that Duterte's scattered pockets across the remaining 58 barangays of Tapaz could not overcome.
ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY ANALYSIS:
Kiko Pangilinan got very big vote leads of over 80 percent in a chain of barangays called the Tapaz to Bingawan corridor (Gebio-an, Bag-ong Barrio, Switch, Katipunan, Taft, Cristina, San Miguel Ilaya, San Miguel Ilawod). These barangays are connected by roads, local leaders, and shared economic ties. Because they are close together, neighbors easily influence each other so news and campaign efforts spread fast. If you spend time and money campaigning in one village, the effect naturally spills over to the next ones. It is harder for opponents to flip the whole area piece by piece because the villages work together like a cluster, and you can keep expanding along the same road or economic line. However, if the connections between villages weaken, for example roads break down, leaders leave, or trade slows, the cluster can fall apart.
Meanwhile, instead of one connected chain of barangays, Sara Duterte’s strong support with over 50 percent margins is in separate isolated spots (Poblacion, Camburanan, Carida, San Nicolas, Bato-bato, Agcococ). These pockets are not linked together. Each pocket is like a small fortress, so to beat her there, an opponent has to win each one individually, which is hard to do all at once. Voters stay loyal because of personal ties or local benefits, not because villages are connected, so these pockets do not need constant maintenance. Even if nearby areas turn against her, each pocket can still survive on its own. However, there is no spillover effect, meaning winning one pocket does not help you win the next one. You have to put separate effort into every single village, making it expensive to defend because you need to spread resources across many unconnected dots. There is also no natural way to grow, so support stays the same or even shrinks over time since you cannot expand along a road or corridor. If roads or communication to a pocket get worse, that pocket becomes irrelevant for building a larger majority.