Philippine Council for Foreign Relations Inc.

14/12/2023

David and Goliath

The biblical saga between a puny boy and a mighty giant goes on. Today, it's exemplified by Chinese abusive behavior towards the Philippines ranging from mocking our inferiority to escalating its provocations in our Exclusive Economic Zone, and even here on land with its minions and local collaborators.

China keeps saying that they're big and we're small; in effect, telling us what are we capable of doing about that? And this is being trumpeted by its local cho chambers in the country who jeer and sneer our government, military and outraged citizens.

Obnoxious to say the least. If this is what they are now, how much more when we're conquered?

But, hey, we're not the only ones they're doing that to. China's been grabbed Vietnam's EEZ too, and claims most of Malaysia and Indonesias's. It's illegal grab of territorial and sovereign rights in the maritime domain extend to Japan.

On land, China's had border clashes with Russia, Vietnam and India; it's building illegal housing in helpless Bhutan. It's also inflitrating many countries essential to their strategic goal of being the next superpower.

It's been preposiitioning its warfare elements, from businesses to the underground, in many countries including ours, in executing asymmetric warfare, for decades such as: infiltration of strategic institutions and infrastructure; political and media influence operations; and subverting the criminal justice system.

That said, we're facing the consequences of poor governance after the FVR era. Our national security and defense was never given importance despite the AFP Modernization Act of 1995 after China's theft of Mischief Reef, and even after the 2nd AFP Modernization Act of 2012 after China's theft of Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc).

We squandered all those years in between to this day. Despite the purchase of brand new defense assets from various suppliers, defense spending remains pitifully around 1% of GDP when it should be at around 2-3% or even more given our catch up mode and emergency situation.

Congress' lackadaisical and disabling attitude in the march of time over 4 administrations after FVR's produced consequences that haunt us today - our unpreparedness to deal with external threats to our safety, security and survival. Which, of course, paves the way for the mocking, sneering and jeering we're getting from China's local parrots.

Our sordid situation presents diplomatic and internal security challenges. Enemies of the state and the people are taking full advantage of malgovernance that stretches from criminal negligence to failure of implementation. And there's plenty of blame to spread around.

So, when a foreign bullying Goliath mocks a sling carrying David, it's but natural to trumpet one's invincibiity and superiority. But when locals collaborate and enable Goliath, that's another matter. Their treachery will be remembered.

When David takes slings a shot, they better take notice because that could go haywire and hit anyone on the other side where they stand.

12/12/2023

QUICK SECURITY SCAN

China's bullying is intensifying. It's been clandestinely prepositioning its advance elements (trojan horses to be more precise, some above ground, others underground). The CPP-NDF-NPA are still around also operating above and below ground. Wouldn't be surprised if they're in bed together. The M**F's decommisioning (including its satellite forces) and fi****ms recovery are way behind schedule.

Why is that? Something tells me that all that will somehow converge and burst out in the open at the "right time."

Externally, the freedom forces and their opposiites are fighting it out in Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. There are hot proxy wars and asymmetric wars being waged in all arenas. And they're escalating. Both sides have their fingerprints all over the globe. And it's giving me this creepy feeling that the early stages of World War 3 are unfolding before our eyes.

The way I read the situation, after decades of observation and tracking the behavior of the great powers, central to all this is China as the leader of the pack that includes Russia, North Korea, Iran and their terror groups who desire to topple the US-led freedom forces that have grown old and weary to establish a new world order, a kingdom under Heaven.

That's what our national security community is seeing and dealing with. Our nation is facing complex challenges that have grown beyond our capacity to deal with because of our own behavioral or cultural anomalies stemming from a serious deficit of good governance, patriotism, moral values and the bayanihan spirit. Unlike, say, Singapore, Japan or South Korea.

Apart from beefing up our national and civil defenses, which are way behind schedule, we need to fix our "ugali" as a people. Our government needs a serious overhaul as much as our society does. After all, we all belong to the same pool. Yet, the vast majority can't be harnessed because the serious damage to our social fabric hasn't been repaired or replaced by a better one.

This is an appeal to reason. Before the worst case happens, which will surely come like a thief in the night we should, once and for all, get our act together as a risk mitigation measure. Isn't it better to face our challenges in some state of preparedness, compared to our utter lack of it today, by taking the bull by the horns now? We need extraordinary leadership and fellowship today more than ever.

MIlitary and civil defense preparedness will only work if our national and local leaders agree to subordinate their parochial interests to our national interests We're in a dangerous period that requires our undivided focus, total commitment and smart concerted action to deal with our very serious internal and external security concerns. As the eternal saying goes, "United we stand, divided we fall."

11/12/2023

Learning our lessons is the hardest thing

Two weeks ago, on November 23, the PH government and the National Democratic Front (NDF) affirmed and signed a Joint Statement in Oslo, Norway that recognized the need for national unity to address serious socio-economic issues, the country’s external security threats and a peaceful resolution of the armed conflict.

Both parties agreed to formulate a framework that will set the parameters for the final peace agreement, shall be agreed upon by both parties. The joint statement followed months of informal discussions by emissaries of both parties that began in 2022 initiated by the Philippine side which was personally welcomed by then NDFP Chief Political Consultant Prof. Jose Ma. Sison.

The PH government’s signatories Secretary Antonio Ernesto F. Lagdameo Jr.; Secretary Carlito G. Galvez Jr.; and Gen Emmanuel T. Bautista (Ret.). The CPP-NDF-NPA were represented by Fr. Luis G. Jalandoni; Julieta de Lima; and Sr. Coni K. Ledesma.

To be clear, what they signed is not a peace agreement but a statement of intent by both parties to work towards one. I have no quarrel with that. One just has to look around and examine our state of the nation compared to the rest of the progressive world. We still harbor serious unresolved problems that continue to impact on our political, social and economic behavior which favor the “haves” over the “have-nots”.

Through five decades, the divide between a patrimonial oligarchic state and a Stalinist-Maoist force that seeks to establish a one-party dictatorship grew wider, preventing us frombuilding a better, faster and stronger nation.

Yet, while I believe that peace must be pursued, I do have misgivings. Here’s why.

My recollection of the CPP-NDF-NPA goes back to the pre-1986 EDSA revolt when various anti-dictatorship groups tried to forge a united front. That never materialized as they wanted to be in full control as sole leader, unwilling to work on an equal basis.

After the 1986 EDSA revolt they were given democratic space by the Cory Aquino administration “to return to the folds of the law”. Instead, they took advantage of it by infiltrating government and social institutions - the Executive and Legislative branches of government, media, organized groups in civil society to build a formidable united front where they continue to thrive to this day.

Fast forward to my years as SILG and Chair of the National Peace and Order Council. The best chance for peace was during President Fidel V. Ramos’ term. I backchanneled with the leaders of all the rebel groups – RAM-SKP-YOU; MNLF, M**F, CPLA, CPP-NDF-NPA.

His administration succeeded in negotiating peace with the military rebels and the MNLF. The M**F held out until four administrations later. The CPP-NDF-NPA remained the holdouts despite the steep plunge of NPA fighters from a high of over 25,000 to just around 6,000 by 1998.

Ramos aimed to reach a final, comprehensive peace agreement before the end of his term, but the CPP-NDF-NPA had other ideas. They still strove for “total victory”. They were not interested in a final political settlement.

They wanted to protract the peace talks indefinitely to squeeze as much politico-diplomatic gain in creeping fashion to favor their “protracted people’s war.” It took a piecemeal approach to the peace process, one agenda item at a time. Unfortunately, peace with the CPP-NDF-NPA eluded FVR. Succeeding administrations met the same fate.

Consequently, ceasefires that flowed from succeeding peace initiatives were merely used to regroup, retrain, rearm, resupply and redeploy before returning to the battlefield. Battlefield casualties mounted due to ambushes and assassinations.

Recruitment of minors intensified, united front building persisted, democratic space continued to be abused. Terror tactics and pure criminality cowed politicians, businessmen and professionals to pay revolutionary taxes and other forms of “ayuda”. Tactical alliances with secessionist groups were attempted. The infiltration of our institutions exploited dysfunctions in government and society.

How do I see the current state of the CPP-NDF-NPA? If reports are accurate, the military’s relentless efforts have effectively crushed the NPA. The CPP is a shadow of itself today. The party’s adrift after Jose Ma. Sison’s demise and successive arrests of its top leaders; further wracked by internal dissension and power struggles. The NDF ideologues have grown old and weary which is probably the reason why they’re open to peace talks.

Moreover, through diplomatic efforts and law enforcement, its funding sources are drying up. But what’s to stop them from going mercenary for China's CPC-PLA? After all, they think and behave the same way.

That’s why I remain suspicious. Crisis creates opportunity. There’s this gnawing feeling that it could be another ploy, a temporary pause. Partly because its party lists in the Batasan and local government units remain entrenched. Its united fronts in government, business and civil society are still in place.

They may be weakened by leadership and funding challenges, but it’s hard to believe it’s true this time around when trust was broken so many times in the past. From their end, they see that our political culture, economic disparities and social divisions continue to fuel subversion and rebellion, and provide opportunities for exploitation and resurgence.

That’s a sore point for many Filipinos, not just the CPP-NDF-NPA, who long for stability, good governance, moral clarity and ardent patriotism. History continues to repeat itself in our case.

What kind of a final comprehensive peace pact could possibly result between a patrimonial oligarchic state and a Stalinist-Maoist force that seeks to establish a one-party dictatorship?

Both sides bitterly reject each other; the socio-economic-political divides are wider than ever; and there’s a huge trust deficit despite assurances from government quarters that the CPP-NDF-NPA are serious this time to ink a deal.

A real peace deal for our nation’s safety, security and survival could materialize if:

a.) the CPP-NDF-NPA drop their quest for belligerency status and a zero-sum victory for its Maoist agenda; and,

b.) if the oligarchy-controlled government opens its doors to transparency, accountability, good governance and professionalism.

Will they? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, we, the people, must keep our guard up and remain vigilant against another double-cross.

23/12/2021

Although this year was an extension of last year, still and all, we have much to thank God for His many blessings. You are one of them.

03/11/2021

29/10/2021

The Philippine Council for Foreign Relations (PCFR) in partnership with the Ople Center is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Philippine Council for Foreign Relations-Joint Webinar on "The Highs and Lows of Philippines Overseas Employment During COVID 19"

Time: Oct 29, 2021 02:00 PM Beijing, Shanghai

Join Zoom Meeting
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/81137775158?pwd=RGNCTjNiVHJ5SUs4aVNYMEpTM2tyZz09

Meeting ID: 811 3777 5158
Passcode: 220822

23/08/2021

The Philippine Council for Foreign Relations is inviting you to a Forum with the theme:

"Perspectives on ASEAN - EU Relations"

Our Guest Speaker would be Hon. Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro, Undersecretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs for Bilateral Relations and ASEAN. Date is on the 30th of August 2021 at 10:00 AM until 12:00 NN Manila.

For those interested to participate you may register at this link: https://forms.gle/HbWXwpi2RXBcRfaP8

11/07/2021

CNN's Fareed Zakaria gives his take on why China's increasingly assertive foreign policy is putting it at odds not just with foreign nations, but also with its own interests.

CNN's Fareed Zakaria gives his take on why China's increasingly assertive foreign policy is putting it at odds not just with foreign nations, but also with i...