17/07/2026
At our recent fireside chat, "Beyond Percentages: What Election Surveys Really Tell Us," MORES gathered the country’s top minds in opinion research, academia, media, and Comelec to discuss voter behavior, polling standards, and the fight against disinformation.
Here are the key takeaways from the discussion:
•Voters make decisions much later than we think. Filipino voters are "dispositional", with many only finalizing their choices a week before, or even the day of, the election. This makes the final weeks of a campaign highly volatile. Mr. Cleve Arguelles, Founder & CEO of Momentum Research, pointed out some studies that reveal how overestimated under-voting is. With a massive plurality deciding on Election Day itself, most Filipino voters’ choices are highly fluid right up to the finish line.
•Comelec’s registry is about transparency, not censorship. Director John Rex Laudiangco, Comelec Spokesperson, clarified that Comelec’s new registry for survey practitioners is designed to promote open data, helping the public and scientific peers identify and challenge unscientific polls. The goal of Comelec is not to play judge and jury over who is credible, but to push data transparency so the public and scientific peers can easily unmask and challenge bogus pollsters.
•"Malinformation" is a growing threat. While misinformation is accidental, Director Joyce Pañares, Manila Standard Managing Editor and Training Director at the Philippine Press Institute, warned that malinformation, using genuine data out of context to mislead the public, is a highly effective and dangerous tactic used during campaigns. Media practitioners must look beyond the surface numbers to report surveys responsibly. It’s not just about fake data; it's about politicians weaponizing real numbers out of context to drive dangerous narratives.
•Face-to-face polling remains the gold standard. Despite the rise of digital and AI-driven polling methods, rigorous, face-to-face probabilistic and representative sampling remains the most reliable way to accurately represent the public. Dir. Laudiangco stated that Comelec is using its new transparency resolutions and registry to mandate the publication of raw data, methodology, sample sizes, sponsor and funding source, geographic spread, and margins of error. Rather than censoring content, this open-data approach acts as a "pre-bunking" mechanism. It empowers the public and legitimate polling institutions to explicitly check the data, call out fake numbers, and collectively mask or neutralize the spread of misinformation.
As we navigate future elections, researchers, media, and regulators are integral to the process of giving a voice to ordinary Filipinos and to keep the public accurately informed.
Thank you to our panel, Dr. Ronald Holmes, Cleve Arguelles, Dir. John Rex Laudiangco, and Dir. Joyce Pañares for sharing their invaluable insights.
