Centrist Democracy Political Institute

15/04/2026

Islamabad and the return of the nuclear shadow
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
April 15, 2026

MOST people are fixated by the wrong indicators. They track inflation, fuel prices, grocery bills, the slow suffocation of household budgets. They measure distress in pesos, dollars, liters, kilowatts. But history is rarely decided in supermarkets or at gasoline pumps. It is shaped in quieter rooms — through misjudgment, overreach, and the silent collapse of diplomacy.

What unfolded in Islamabad last Sunday was one of those moments. After 21 hours of negotiations, US Vice President JD Vance boarded his plane and left without a deal. The talks did not merely stall. They exposed a deeper truth: the parties were never negotiating the same reality to begin with.

And when diplomacy fails at that level, the consequences are rarely contained.

From oil to Israel

For decades, the Middle East mattered to America because of oil. The logic was straightforward — secure the flow of energy, stabilize the global economy, and prevent any single power from dominating the region. That is no longer the whole story.

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https://cdpi.asia/index.php/2016-02-05-03-09-27/op-ed-articles/lml-polettiques/item/1224-https-www-manilatimes-net-2026-04-15-opinion-columns-islamabad-and-the-return-of-the-nuclear-shadow-2320174

08/04/2026

The silent victor of the war in Iran
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
April 07, 2026

Last of a series

THE previous three installments of this series dissected how Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu precipitated the Iran war. On the surface, Netanyahu’s influence over Trump offered a masterful study of the puppeteer’s craft. Yet, at a deeper level, the conflict served as a seminar on how both the marionette and the puppeteer were, in bizarre ways, being managed by a far more adept actor: Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). It was, quite simply, a masterclass in “calculated silence.”

As we conclude this series on the Iran war, it is becoming increasingly clear that we are not just witnessing a military confrontation; we are watching the final resolution of a 45-year struggle for regional supremacy. And the victor isn’t the one who dropped the most bombs — it’s the one who had the most patience.

To fully appreciate the current situation, the antecedent of the Iran war needs to be reviewed in the light of Saudi’s role in it. The relationship between Saudi and Iran is best described as a longstanding rivalry with occasional attempts at détente.

For decades, the two have competed for power and influence in the Middle East, driven by religious differences (Sunni vs Shia); and Saudi asserting its authority as Islam’s center of gravity, being the host of Islam’s two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina. The two countries’ political dynamics and oil politics are often in the opposing regional proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria, with Iran funding Saudi’s adversaries, the Houthis and Hezbollah.

Iran has, therefore, been the ultimate barrier to Saudi’s regional hegemony in the Middle East. Saudi is the richest country in the region, has the best military money can buy. But more importantly, it has America for a friend with a leader that is corrupt and can be bought. And MBS has the genius, the talent and foresight to mold Trump’s role in his ambitions, as we shall soon see.

The art of the ‘outsourced war’

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https://cdpi.asia/index.php/2016-02-05-03-09-27/op-ed-articles/lml-polettiques/item/1223-https-www-manilatimes-net-2026-04-08-opinion-columns-the-silent-victor-of-the-war-in-iran-2315696

02/04/2026

UNDESERVED SCOURGING

02/04/2026

At the edge of madness
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
April 1, 2026

Last of a series

BILLED as a clean decapitation strike, Operation “Epic Fury” fractured the post‑Cold War economic order triggering a cascading breakdown in global supply chains as longstanding guardrails erode. Donald Trump, pretending control over a conflict with no strategic clarity, doubled down.

On March 21, he issued Iran a 48‑hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the “obliteration” of its power grid, an attack on civilian infrastructure supporting 90 million people — a war crime.

Just as the deadline lapsed, Trump backed off, extending it to five days, then another 10-day extension to April 6 — true to his TACO reputation — claiming “productive conversations” upon “Iranian government requests” — barefaced lies that Iran has denied.

Surreptitiously, Washington floated a 15‑point proposal through Pakistani go‑betweens. Tehran dismissed it outright, punctuating its contempt with new drone strikes in Kuwait. What began as an ultimatum decayed into a performative bargaining script pretending to be a threat.

The economic chokehold

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Last of a seriesBILLED as a clean decapitation strike, Operation “Epic Fury” fractured the post‑Cold War economic order triggering a cascading breakdo...

25/03/2026

GAS-FREE RIDE
TMT | Opinion | Editorial Cartoon

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25/03/2026

Architects of anarchy: Trump, Netanyahu, and the manufactured apocalypse
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
March 25, 2026

Second of a series

THE geopolitical shock of February 2026 was no accident. It was a manufactured crisis, an engineered rupture authored by the Katzenjammer Kids of global politics: Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, acting with little regard for the consent of their own publics. Cornered by domestic failures and legal peril, they fused their agendas into a single act of escalation, gambling global stability on the illusion that total war could achieve what decades of restraint had carefully preserved.

Anatomy of the Trumpian delusion

When Trump launched Operation Epic Fury, he did more than ignite a regional conflict; he shattered the fragile equilibrium of trade, law, and deterrence, replacing it with a performative spectacle of a militarized “show.” The world was pushed to the edge not by necessity, but by what Jeffrey Sachs aptly calls the “high cost of delusion.”

At its core lies a dangerous disconnect between populist bravado and the unforgiving realities of modern war. For Trump, foreign policy is not a stabilizing instrument, but a theater of dominance — a branding exercise masquerading as strategy. The pursuit of “total victory” ignores the asymmetric, interdependent nature of the 21st century. What passes for strategy is spectacle: a projection of strength untethered from consequence, driven by disdain for norms and an impulse to erase complexity with force.

Partnership of convenience and conviction

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Second of a seriesTHE geopolitical shock of February 2026 was no accident. It was a manufactured crisis, an engineered rupture authored by the Katzenj...

18/03/2026

The week the world stopped: The Hormuz crisis
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
March 18, 2026

FIRST OF A SERIES

SINCE Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s rise to power in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, removing him and his regime have always existed on the margins of American strategic thinking. However, it became a geopolitical obsession of one man: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The strategy of grudging equilibrium was the core doctrine of every American president since Jimmy Carter’s debacle in the aftermath the Iranian hostage crisis. Subsequent American presidents, from Bill Clinton onward, understood the risks of turning that doctrine into policy. The memory of the Iraq war, the fragility of the Persian Gulf, and the catastrophic consequences of regime-change adventurism imposed a kind of institutional restraint. Not until Donald Trump’s presidency when American and Israeli interests — with Netanyahu in the driver’s seat — were fused strategically.

Netanyahu found a marionette in Trump, whose focus on “total victory” overshadowed geopolitical stability. On Feb. 28, 2026, that restraint evaporated.

Trump advanced a dramatic war plan — Operation Epic Fury — launching 900 missiles, destroying command centers, eliminating the Iranian leadership, and erasing military infrastructure. The spectacle — designed for impact on television — projected strength, warming the cockles of a reality television star.

For three decades, US military leaders have advised against war with Iran, citing its challenging size and geography. Pentagon simulations consistently showed air campaigns alone would not lead to regime change or submission.

Defying military logic, ultimately, America was maneuvered into a war of choice, one whose political timing aligned far more neatly with Israeli electoral pressures than with American strategic necessity. The fireworks were spectacular; the consequences were deadly.

‘Total victory’ – an illusion

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FIRST OF A SERIES SINCE Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s rise to power in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, removing him and his regime have always existed on...

12/03/2026

The dynastic civil war: Why the 1987 Constitution is the battleground
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
March 11, 2026

OVER the last three columns, we have peeled back the layers of the Philippine political onion to find a core that is not a vacuum of leadership, but a dense grid of familial controls. We have traced the trajectory from pre-colonial datu roots to the modern captured state, where the line between private profit and public policy has been erased by the oligopolidyn. This hybrid elite has effectively swallowed our democratic mechanisms, transforming even the party-list system — intended to be a beacon for the marginalized — into a mere family holding company subsidiary.

Enter the modern arena. While the 1987 Constitution is hailed as a shield against tyranny, it has become the ultimate playground for the elite. The 2026 “Charter change” push isn’t about economic ideals or efficiency; it’s a strategic maneuver in a dynastic civil war. In this concluding part, we examine why the Constitution is the last barrier to total hegemony. We’ll explore how the anti-dynasty clause, left toothless by the very people it regulates, is now a bargaining chip in a high-stakes siege. The families that captured the economy are rewriting the rules to ensure they never have to leave the field.

Two models of state capture

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OVER the last three columns, we have peeled back the layers of the Philippine political onion to find a core that is not a vacuum of leadership, but a...

04/03/2026

Oligopolidyn: When wealth and power become one
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
March 04, 2026

Third of a four-part series

IN the previous parts of this series, we explored how the Philippine state is not inherently “weak,” but is instead “captured” — its institutions repurposed to serve narrow interests rather than the common good. To understand how this capture is maintained across generations, we must look at the structural DNA of the Philippine ruling class. It is a phenomenon I call “oligopolidyn:” the seamless fusion of the oligarchy (economic control by the few) and political dynasties (political control by the few). In the Philippines, wealth and power are not merely neighbors; they are the same creature, living in the same house, sitting at the same table.

Evolution of the hybrid elite

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Third of a four-part series

25/02/2026

The Philippines is not a weak state, it is a captured one
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
Centrist Democracy Political Institute
February 25, 2026

Second of a four-part series

THE first part of this series last week argued that the 39-year failure to implement the constitutional ban on political dynasties (polidyn) is not a matter of legislative delay, but a structural design rooted in a centuries-old “operating system” of patronage (polpat) and clan-based hierarchy. By tracing the evolution from pre-colonial datus to a unitary-presidential system that incentivizes succession by blood, Congress — composed largely of the dynasties themselves — is fundamentally incapable of regulating its own power. This systemic entrenchment suggests that the government does not merely fail to act due to incompetence but is intentionally structured to serve the interests of those who control it.

For too long, we have diagnosed the Philippines as a “weak state,” fragile, chaotic and incapable. We have internalized this “weakness” as the ultimate apology for every collapsed reform and perennial crisis. But this diagnosis is false. The Philippines is far from weak. A weak state fails because it lacks capacity; a captured state is something far more sinister. Its capacity hasn’t been lost — it has been hijacked and rebuilt for private extraction by the very leaders entrusted with the public’s welfare. A weak state cannot act; a captured state acts with lethal precision, just never for the public good.

Once this distinction is understood, our chronic dysfunction stops looking like an accident and starts looking like a strategy. The system isn’t broken; it is operating exactly as intended.

The myth of weakness

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Second of a four-part seriesTHE first part of this series last week argued that the 39-year failure to implement the constitutional ban on political d...

18/02/2026

From datus to dynasties, and why Congress now pretends to fix it
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
February 18, 2026

First of a four-part series

THE sudden burst of legislative enthusiasm in both chambers of Congress to “finally operationalize” Article II, Section 26 of the 1987 Constitution — mandating the State to “guarantee equal access to opportunities for public service and prohibit political dynasties as may be defined by law” — has been greeted with predictable applause.

Who, after all, would object to curbing dynastic excess?

But the present debate, for all its moral polish, remains trapped in the shallow end of the pool. It asks the wrong question. The issue is not whether Congress should define political dynasties. The real question is why, for 39 years, Congress never did — and why the same institution now claims the moral authority to correct a defect it has carefully preserved.

This is not a story about legislative delay. It is a story about design.

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First of a four-part seriesTHE sudden burst of legislative enthusiasm in both chambers of Congress to “finally operationalize” Article II, Section 26...

11/02/2026

Integrity is national defense
By Lito Monico C. Lorenzana
February 11, 2026

I BEGAN this series (TMT, Jan 28, 2026) by tracking the wreckage left by Trump’s initiatives: tariffs hurled at China that boomeranged onto American consumers, just as economists warned; a Venezuela stunt that smelled of domestic distraction from the Epstein files; and the Greenland fantasy, greeted in Europe with disbelief. Add the Nobel Prize theatrics and it all looked like childish tantrums flirting with madness. The real danger, however, was that there was a method to it.

The debate has been miscast as a duel between giants — American volatility versus Chinese patience. That misses the point. What matters is not Greenland or Davos, but what this turbulence does to states like the Philippines. Trapped between an impulsive ally and a methodical neighbor, disaster need not arrive with drama. It can seep in quietly.

No alliance compensates for a republic hollowed out from within. The Philippines is not weakened by lack of friends, but by corruption turned into an operating system. External pressure merely exploits the rot already in place.

Corruption as strategic vulnerability

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I BEGAN this series (TMT, Jan 28, 2026) by tracking the wreckage left by Trump’s initiatives: tariffs hurled at China that boomeranged onto American c...