04/11/2024
Tropical Storm "Marce"
Issued at 05:00 pm, 04 November 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today)
“MARCE” FURTHER INTENSIFIES OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF BICOL REGION.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
As MARCE moves northwestward within the PAR region, it may enhance the northeasterly wind flow which may occur within the week. This, and the trough of the tropical cyclone, will bring rains over Extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Luzon beginning today or on Tuesday. A Weather Advisory may be issued over the next days as MARCE moves closer towards Northern Luzon.
Severe Winds
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over portions of Cagayan tonight or tomorrow morning. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of MARCE is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today (4 November): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, and the northern portion of Quezon.
Tomorrow (5 November): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Aurora, Quezon, and Camarines Norte.
Wednesday (6 November): Ilocos Region, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Batanes.
Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, northern Aurora; the eastern seaboard on mainland Cagayan.
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands.
Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region; the seaboards of northern Quezon and Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
A Gale Warning will likely be hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon tomorrow.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
MARCE is forecast to move generally west northwestward today until tomorrow (5 November) before turning westward at a slow pace over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon. On the forecast track, MARCE will make landfall in the vicinity of Babuyan Islands or mainland northern Cagayan on Thursday evening (7 November) or Friday (8 November) early morning. Due to uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure area north of MARCE, the forecast track may still change and bring the landfall point to mainland Cagayan-Isabela area.
This tropical cyclone is expected to gradually intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category tonight or tomorrow (5 November) morning. Furthermore, it may also reach typhoon category by tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning. Rapid intensification is likely.
Location of Eye/center
The center of Tropical Storm MARCE was estimated based on all available data at 740 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.1 °N, 131.0 °E )
Movement
Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h
Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h
Forecast Position
Nov 05, 2024 02:00 AM - 790 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Nov 05, 2024 02:00 PM - 510 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Nov 06, 2024 02:00 AM - 420 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Nov 06, 2024 02:00 PM - 345 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Nov 07, 2024 02:00 AM - 250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Nov 07, 2024 02:00 PM - 135 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Nov 08, 2024 02:00 PM - 90 km Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Nov 09, 2024 02:00 PM - 385 km West of Calayan, Cagayan (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
