19/10/2025
Tropical Storm "Ramil"
Issued at 05:00 am, 19 October 2025
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 8:00 AM today)
“RAMIL” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAT, QUEZON
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 9 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to RAMIL.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
Today: Cagayan Valley, Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Caluya Islands, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran
Tomorrow (20 October): Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and Masbate. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Camarines Norte, and Polillo Islands; the western seaboards of Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Batangas; the northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 3.5 m: The northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboards of mainland Quezon; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon
Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of La Union; and the remaining seaboards of Pangasinan and Quezon.
Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Marinduque; the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
On the forecast track, RAMIL will continue moving west northwestward or northwestward as it makes landfall over the vicinity of Quezon Province this morning. After making landfall, it will traverse the Southern-Central Luzon landmass before emerging over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or Zambales this afternoon or evening. It will then continue moving generally northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (20 October) morning or noon.
During its passage over the landmass, RAMIL is expected to maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to frictional effects of mountainous terrain. Once over the West Philippine Sea, further re-intensification is highly likely, with RAMIL expected to reach severe tropical storm category while outside the PAR Region.
