The Hague Research Institute

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...for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus & Central Asia is an independent non-profit think-tank.

13/10/2026

„The post-2022 Western pivot to Central Asian critical minerals has been the catalyst for a strategic scramble, with the EU and US moving from near total-absence in the region’s mineral diplomacy to signing binding agreements, launching multilateral platforms, and committing capital to processing investment. However, the gap between diplomatic activity and operational delivery still remains.“ 💎

Can the West catch up with China in the race for Central Asia’s critical minerals, despite arriving 15 years late? Are Western partnerships genuinely supporting Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s industrial ambitions, or are they primarily securing mineral supplies for Western economies? And what if the key to winning this competition lies not in outspending China, but in meeting Central Asia’s demands for domestic processing and long-term economic development?

Find the full article by Sera Carey on our website: https://hagueresearch.org/can-the-west-deliver-critical-minerals-and-strategic-competition-in-central-asia/

12/10/2026

„Kyrgyzstan’s experience over the past 35 years is not simply a story of the success or failure of democracy. The country repeatedly tried institutions and ideas that had worked elsewhere, only to find that they did not always work in the same way in Kyrgyzstan. Baisalov’s own journey reflects this change. The activist who once fought for political change and embraced Western models now believes that Kyrgyzstan has to find its own way towards effective government. But there is one thing that has remained constant. Whenever political power became too disconnected from the people, they took to the streets and forced change. That happened in 2005, 2010 and again in 2020. Kyrgyzstan may not have built a stable liberal democracy, but its people have repeatedly shown that they will not simply accept a government that loses their support. And if history is any guide, they will do so again.“ 🇰🇬

Why did economic reforms and early attempts at democracy fall short of expectations in Kyrgyzstan, and what has H.E. Edil Baisalov, Ambassador of the Kyrgyz Republic to the United States, learnt from these setbacks? After 35 years of political upheaval, what lies ahead for Kyrgyzstan as it seeks to strengthen its institutions, build a more effective system of government and secure a more prosperous future?

Read the full article by Tamás Márk Balogh here: https://hagueresearch.org/what-happened-to-kyrgyzstans-democratic-experiment-over-35-years/

Note: This article is based on an interview with H.E. Mr. Edil Baisalov, Ambassador of the Kyrgyz Republic to the United States of America. The analysis, interpretations, and views expressed in the article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Hague Research Institute.

09/10/2026

„European policy discourse tends to treat Kazakhstan’s balancing among Russia, China, and the West as a problem to be corrected, on the assumption that sufficient pressure, correctly applied, would induce Astana to choose. This misreads the country’s position. Kazakhstan will continue to balance because balancing is the rational strategy for a landlocked state that shares a border of more than 7,000 kilometres with Russia and relies on Chinese capital and infrastructure, and the EU diminishes its own standing each time it implies that partnership is conditional on a geopolitical alignment that Kazakhstan cannot deliver.“ 🇪🇺🇰🇿🇨🇳

Can Kazakhstan turn its critical mineral wealth into a stronger domestic processing industry while helping the EU reduce its dependence on China? Why has the EU’s growing partnership with Kazakhstan failed to translate into significant investment, and how are its own sanctions policies undermining the partnership? And what would it take for Europe and Kazakhstan to build a mutually beneficial alternative to China, without asking Kazakhstan to choose sides?

Check out the full article by Akerke Akhmetova and Temirlan Joldybayev here: https://hagueresearch.org/can-the-eu-reduce-its-critical-mineral-dependence-on-china-through-kazakhstan/

08/10/2026

„Once Tashkent and Ashgabat treat the canal as a security issue rather than a technical water-sharing question, the range of acceptable outcomes narrows: officials cannot be seen making concessions on what has been publicly defined as a threat to the nation, which makes technical, incremental bargaining harder even where it remains the more realistic path forward. For Afghanistan, meanwhile, the canal is framed as a national survival project and a strategic imperative for economic sovereignty, an equally existential framing that leaves both sides negotiating from fixed positions rather than shared interests.“ 🚰

What happens when a major upstream water diversion project moves forward without a regional framework governing its impact on downstream states? And how could the Qosh Tepa Canal turn mounting environmental and economic pressures into a wider regional security challenge?

Find the full article by Aytac Mahammadova here: https://hagueresearch.org/aytac-mahammadova/

07/10/2026

„Armenia’s bid to become the AI hub of the South Caucasus region is no longer a matter of declared intent. It is progressively materializing through several concrete projects, anchored primarily to American capital and technology, with the EU trying to position itself as parallel, even if lighter, partner. Understanding where and how these new facilities develop, on what timeline, and under which financing, could reveal simultaneously the high stakes ambitions and the potential structural fragility of Armenia’s AI strategy.“ 🇦🇲

How is Armenia’s rapidly expanding AI infrastructure reshaping its strategic partnerships with the United States, Russia and the European Union? Can the country’s water and energy systems sustain the scale of AI infrastructure it is planning? And will AI help Armenia achieve greater strategic diversification, or could it create new dependencies on foreign capital, technology and resources?

Read the full analysis by Elena Zarantoniello on our website: https://hagueresearch.org/armenias-ai-ambitions-between-technological-diversification-and-resource-constraints/

06/10/2026

On 1-2 October, our Oliver Reschreiter attended the 2026 edition of the CAMCA Regional Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan, which focused on topics such as regional connectivity, economic integration and the Middle Corridor under the theme "The World and CAMCA: A Region at the Crossroads". Thank you very much to our international partner, the CAMCA Network, and particularly Tamar Kekenadze for the invitation!

Find some impressions from the event below 📸

05/10/2026

After a little bit of a break, we present to you a brand new episode of our very own THRI podcast Eastwards, just in time for the first Monday of October! 🎙️

This month, Dr. Isaac Scarborough, one of the authors of the 2025-2026 Central Asian Market Survey, conducted by the Russia & Eastern Europe Knowledge Alliance and the Clingendael Institute, followed our invitation to discuss the report’s findings and geoeconomic implications discovered, including for Europe. An Assistant Professor of Social and Economic History at Leiden University, he is an expert on the rise and fall of empires throughout the 20th century and the impact of these empires on peripheral regions.

Enjoy listening and don’t forget to follow „Eastwards“ on Spotify! New episodes (almost) every first Monday of the month.

You can find the full episode here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1wTWQYYyOC2xfBY84qNxJi?si=b9a83d5a235a44f8

22/09/2026

Yesterday, on 21 September, our THRI Executive Board member Fien Kroon attended a reception in The Hague on the occasion of the 35th Armenian Independence Day 🇦🇲🇳🇱

21/09/2026

And finally, there is one more new face in our team… Please join us in welcoming Andrea Marsch Rico! 🎉

Meet Andrea Marsch Rico:
Final-year International Relations student at the University of Navarra, pursuing a minor in Global Business & Economic Affairs. Originally from Mexico, she is fluent in Spanish, English, and German. Alongside her studies, she has authored and contributed to published academic research at the Global Affairs and Strategic Studies, the university's research centre, covering topics including environmental injustice, international law and Arctic security dynamics.

21/09/2026

Continuing our round of introductions, we are happy to say that Vivien Virág Klimas has joined THRI as an intern! 🎊

Meet Vivien Virág Klimas:
Vivien is an International and European Law student at The Hague University of Applied Sciences with a strong interest in the intersection of law, policy, and international security. Her academic background includes public international law, human rights law, and international security, with a particular focus on statelessness and ethnic conflict.

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