11/11/2025
COP30: Time is Running Out
As the 30th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opens in the Brazilian city of Belem, it is critical for negotiators and indeed, the entire world to reflect on what 29 years of global conversation has achieved in the fight against climate change. The first Conference of Parties held in Berlin in 1995 following the Earth Summit 3 years earlier. It established the COP space as the key negotiation and decision-making entity of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, mobilizing signatory countries to take deliberate actions to check climate change. Since then, 29 Conferences have held with no significant progress towards addressing the climate crisis. While the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 are a few moments of notable commitment to the goal of tackling climate change, real action has been slow, and the results have been near zero.
In 29 sessions of negotiations, the COP process has come under the influence of the fossil fuel industry, represented in each session by a large contingent of lobbyist working to protect and promote the agenda of fossil companies. A recent research found that about 5,350 lobbyists representing the interests of oil, gas and coal companies- the same companies mostly responsible for the breakdown- were given access to the climate talks in the last 4 sessions. With this, the very companies responsible for the climate crisis are able to define the trajectory and outcome of the talks, often at the expense of vulnerable nations facing existential climate threats.
The COP has become prominent for producing ‘false solutions’ to the climate crisis, characterized by their reliance on market-based mechanisms and technological fixes which give the impression of action but actually fail in reducing emissions or addressing the crisis. Not only do these frameworks provide no workable solutions to climate change, they deflect attention from real work and commitments towards actual solutions. In many cases, these false solutions have resulted in the eroding of the rights of indigenous people, forest grabs and widespread abuses.
The known facts about the climate crisis are disturbing. A new study by 160 international researchers shows that the earth has reached its first climate tipping point. Tipping points are defined thresholds recognized by climatologists, which, when exceeded, are anticipated to cause irreversible and perilous effects on the planet's climate, with disastrous consequences for humanity.
The last 10 years have been the warmest years in human history, with 2024 noted as the hottest year in history. That year, global average temperatures reached a scary 1.60C above pre-industrial levels, ‘well’ above the threshold established by the Paris Climate Agreement. These record-breaking warming levels correspond to equally disturbing data on greenhouse gas emissions globally. Atmospheric concentrations of the three key greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, reached their highest levels in 2023. Evidently, emissions have continued to rise even when the climate negotiations pay lip service to cutting emissions.
One of the key focuses of COP30 will be on the latest rounds of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), voluntary emissions reductions commitments by nations, considered critical to achieving global climate goals. The previous two rounds of commitments were grossly inadequate. Several campaigners have already noted that the 3rd NDCs are not radical or ambitious enough to effect any meaningful change.
COP30 is already deeply scared by skepticisms following the shortcomings, weak actions and failed promises of previous Conferences. All this under the backdrop of intensifying climate disasters, climate induced conflicts, inequalities, forced migrations and poverty. For the world to stand the slightest chance of reversing the crisis, it is critical that COP 30 changes the trajectory of the conversation, and makes real progress towards emissions reduction and supporting countries to cope with the effects of climate change.
Among others, COP30 must aim towards ensuring that the resources needed for vulnerable countries to adapt to the impacts of climate change are available to those who need it. The Loss and Damage fund for instance, must be transformed into a functional structure for meeting the needs of impacted people, not as charity or handout, but as a critical step towards ecological justice.
COP30 must be bold enough to call-out polluters who continue to reap record profits on a dying planet while promoting climate denial, false solutions and inhibiting real action. COP30 must also seek to move from the era of promises and voluntarism. For 29 years, these strategies have proved ineffective and the crisis has gotten worse.
Like President Lula of Brazil said, “at every Climate Conference, we hear many promises but see too few real commitments. The era of declarations of good intentions has ended: the time for action plans has arrived. That is why today we begin the COP of Truth”.
