17/08/2026
The 2026 Osun State Governorship Election and the Vincibility of the All Progressives Congress (APC)
There are moments in the life of a nation when history ceases to be a distant story told in textbooks, exposes the limits of power, dismantles political myths, and reminds humanity that no institution built by men can acquire the permanence of eternity. The 2026 Osun State Governorship Election, conducted against a background of intense political competition, elaborate security, and widespread public interest, provides a compelling reminder that political power (however intimidating its appearance) is ultimately vulnerable to the will of the people.
At the heart of the lesson from Oshogbo is a word that deserves to occupy a much larger space in Nigeria's political vocabulary, vincibility; the capacity to be defeated, overcome, or brought down, and the opposite of invincibility. And perhaps, nothing is more important for the future of Nigerian democracy than the destruction of the dangerous political myth that a ruling party, simply because it controls the machinery of government, must necessarily be unbeatable.
History has never sustained such a myth-from the Bastille to Napoleon, from Hi**er to Idi Amin, from Abacha to countless other political and military strongmen across the world, it has repeatedly demonstrated that structures that appear impregnable can crumble, regimes that appear permanent can disappear, and men who seem larger than life can suddenly become chapters in history books.
The storming of the Bastille in France in 1789 became one of the most enduring symbols of the collapse of an old order and demonstrated that institutions which appear formidable can be challenged when citizens lose their fear. It also became a symbol of the French Revolution and the transformation of French political life.
Then came Napoleon Bonaparte, one of the most extraordinary military figures in European history, who rose from relative obscurity to become Emperor of the French and one of the most powerful men of his age. His armies conquered vast territories and shook the political foundations of Europe. Yet, in 1815, he was defeated in the Battle of Waterloo, and his extraordinary political and military career entered its final chapter. The man who had dominated Europe discovered, as every powerful ruler eventually must, that power has limits.
Germany offered another devastating lesson more than a century later with Adolf Hi**er, who rose to power and built a regime that appeared extraordinarily powerful. His government commanded a formidable military machine, controlled a vast propaganda apparatus, and unleashed a war that engulfed much of the world. But the armies of the Allies eventually closed in, Berlin fell, Hi**er died in his bunker in April 1945, and the Third Reich collapsed.
Africa had its own painful experience with Idi Amin, who ruled Uganda with extraordinary brutality and seemingly overwhelming authority. His security apparatus inspired fear, his government exercised tremendous coercive power, and many Ugandans were forced to live under an atmosphere in which resistance appeared almost impossible. Yet, he was overthrown in 1979 after Ugandan forces and Tanzanian troops defeated his regime, turning him into a fugitive who eventually died in exile in Saudi Arabia.
Nigeria, too, has experienced the same historical phenomenon in General Sani Abacha, one of the most powerful figures in the country’s history. As military Head of State, he controlled an immense coercive apparatus; his government was feared, and opposition to his regime carried enormous risks. Yet, the apparently immovable order did not survive him, as he died suddenly in June 1998, and the political transition that followed ultimately brought the military era to an end.
The lesson from all these episodes is not that power is meaningless; power matters, institutions matter, organisation matters, resources matter, but none is eternal. This is precisely where the Nigerian political class must understand the significance of the Osun Governorship elections.
There is an old historical image that can help illuminate the point. During the colonial encounter, the fi****ms and gunpowder technology of Europeans were so unfamiliar and frightening to many African societies that they could generate an aura of extraordinary European power. It was not until Africans who served alongside European soldiers in the First World War witnessed the terrible reality of modern warfare that they dispelled the myth, because, much like Africans, Europeans were wounded, they bled, they were killed, and they died from bullets and artillery just as other human beings did.
That is the political metaphor Nigeria needs today, as the APC may be powerful as the ruling party at the federal level, possessing enormous political structures, influential personalities, access to resources, and the advantages that naturally accompany incumbency. But none of those attributes makes the party invincible, as seen in the great lesson that the people of Osun have offered Nigerians.
The election took place under unusually intense security, with the superstructure of the Nigerian Senate and over a dozen serving Governors of the ruling party, as well as their predecessors. However, the significance of the elections lies in the fact that the people were determined and remained resolute in the face of tension and intimidation. They protected their votes from the units up to the final collation centre until the final results were announced.
Osun's greatest contribution to Nigerian democracy may not be the eventual margin between the candidates, but the psychological transformation that takes place when the electorate finally realizes that political intimidation can be resisted when there is determination and that the people's power is far greater than the people in power.
It's a lesson ahead of future elections, particularly the 2027 General Elections, and a reminder that political power, no matter how formidable, remains subject and inferior to the verdict of the electorate.
Ndifon Joseph
Tvcnewsng
