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Ténéri center of north-west African geostrategic studies and researches, Rabat (2026)

13/05/2026

Trump’s Visit to China and Its Possible Outcomes

The potential visit of former U.S. President Donald Trump to China represents a highly significant political and economic event amid growing tensions between the two global powers.
If it takes place, the visit will not merely be a routine diplomatic meeting, but rather an attempt to redefine the rules of competition between Washington and Beijing.
These developments come at a time when the global economy is facing increasing instability due to trade wars and geopolitical crises.
Observers believe that Trump may use the visit as an electoral card to demonstrate his ability to manage complex international issues.
On the other hand, China is expected to approach any American initiative with great caution, especially regarding trade, technology, and Taiwan.
The discussions are likely to focus on reducing tariffs and strengthening mutual investments between the two countries.
The visit may also address the future of global supply chains, which have been heavily affected by the economic rivalry between the two sides.
However, deep disagreements over influence in Asia and the Pacific region will remain a major obstacle to comprehensive rapprochement.
Many countries fear that the continuation of U.S.-China competition could lead to a long-term global economic division.
At the same time, the visit could provide an opportunity to reduce military and media tensions between the two nations, even temporarily.
The outcome of the visit will depend on the willingness of both sides to make concessions that protect their strategic interests.
China seeks to consolidate its position as a major economic power, while the United States aims to preserve its global dominance.
Therefore, any potential understanding between the two powers could positively affect global markets, energy prices, and international trade.
On the other hand, failure of the visit may open the door to a new phase of political and economic escalation between the world’s two largest powers.

25/04/2026

The Malian territory witnessed, at dawn on Saturday, April 25, 2026, a military escalation considered the most dangerous of its kind. Armed groups launched simultaneous and coordinated attacks targeting key military state structures across the country. The escalation began with a violent strike on the strategic “Kati” base— the heart of military power near the capital, Bamako— at exactly 5:00 a.m. This coincided with the launch of a large-scale offensive operation to retake the city of Kidal, which the government had regained control of in late 2023.

Meanwhile, reports indicated intense military strikes and movements in both Gao and Sévaré. Field data, along with French and Malian reports, suggest that the attackers are divided into two fronts. The “Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad” is leading operations in the north, particularly in Kidal and Gao, aiming to restore its historical influence. On the other hand, armed groups affiliated with “Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin” are believed to be behind the attacks targeting the Kati military base and the Sévaré area in central Mali.

This sudden and coordinated field strategy aims to disperse the capabilities of the Malian army and the supporting “Russian corps” forces by opening multiple battlefronts, disrupting supply lines, and placing government forces under unprecedented simultaneous military pressure. This development signals the potential beginning of a new phase of open confrontations, differing in both scale and planning from previous operations.

15/04/2026

Transnational Organized Crime and Co***ne Trafficking Methods: The Case of Munir (N)’s Extradition from Colombia to Belgium

Introduction
Transnational organized crime represents one of the most significant security challenges in the era of globalization, particularly in relation to the trafficking of hard drugs such as co***ne. This phenomenon has led to the emergence of complex networks that rely on international coordination and the development of innovative methods to evade law enforcement. In this context, the case of the extradition of “Munir (N)” from Colombia to Belgium serves as a compelling example of the evolution of such networks.

Case Background
The suspect, originally from the Belgian city of Genk, is 43 years old. He was arrested in February 2025 in the Colombian city of Barranquilla as part of a large-scale international security operation involving Colombian, Belgian, and British authorities. He remained detained in Bogotá pending extradition procedures to Belgium, where he faces a seven-year prison sentence issued in absentia in 2021.

Role Within the Criminal Network
Investigations revealed that “Munir (N)” held a key position within an international trafficking network, acting as a field coordinator for what is known as the “Balkan Cartel” in Latin America. Evidence also indicates his strong ties with the criminal organization “Clan del Golfo,” one of Colombia’s most powerful armed groups, highlighting the transcontinental alliances between organized crime networks.

Innovative Trafficking Methods
One of the most notable findings of the investigation is the network’s reliance on sophisticated smuggling techniques. Co***ne shipments were concealed inside magnetic metal boxes attached to the external hulls of commercial ships. These shipments were then retrieved at sea before the vessels entered major European ports such as Antwerp or Rotterdam, thereby bypassing traditional customs inspections. Weekly trafficking volumes reportedly reached up to 300 kilograms, reflecting both the scale and organization of the operation.

International Cooperation in Combating Organized Crime
This case underscores the importance of international security and judicial cooperation in tackling transnational criminal networks. The joint efforts of Colombia, Belgium, and the United Kingdom led to the arrest of a key figure in the network, demonstrating the effectiveness of intelligence sharing and cross-border operational coordination.

Conclusion
The extradition of “Munir (N)” marks a significant step in dismantling co***ne trafficking networks targeting Europe. However, the case also highlights the increasing complexity and sophistication of organized crime methods. The forthcoming trial is expected to reveal further insights into the structure and reach of these international networks, contributing to global efforts to curb drug trafficking and enhance security.

10/04/2026

Post-War Implications Following the Conflict with Iran in Light of the Reorganization of Judicial and Political Institutions

Official documents issued by judicial systems, including the document under consideration, provide important indicators about the nature of the post-conflict phase, particularly in a volatile regional context such as the Middle East. The resumption of regular court operations after periods of emergency reflects a transition from a state of exception to an attempt to restore institutional stability—one of the most prominent features of the post-war period following a conflict with Iran.

In this context, the document reveals the reopening of trials with political and media dimensions, suggesting that political systems seek to reorganize their internal priorities after being preoccupied with security and military concerns. Cases involving political elites and media actors, such as the “Bezeq–Walla” case, return to the forefront as part of a broader effort to rebuild legal and political legitimacy.

Moreover, the scheduling of precise court dates reflects an institutional desire to reaffirm state continuity and authority despite the disruptions caused by war. The judiciary, as a central pillar of the modern state, plays a crucial role in reinforcing the rule of law, particularly after periods of instability. This development signals a gradual shift from emergency governance toward normalized civil administration.

From another perspective, these developments can be interpreted within a broader framework of regional rebalancing. A conflict with Iran, given its geopolitical dimensions, impacts not only the external balance of power but also internal dynamics, as states seek to address unresolved issues and recalibrate the relationships between political authority, media, and the judiciary.

Additionally, the resumption of major legal proceedings may indicate an effort to contain internal tensions and prevent the accumulation of political crises. Reopening high-profile judicial cases after the war can serve as a mechanism to rebuild public trust or even to reshape the political landscape in alignment with the emerging post-war order.

In conclusion, this document reflects a microcosm of the post-war phase, where states move to reactivate their institutions, reorganize internal priorities, and pursue relative stability. However, such stability remains fragile, as it depends on the ability of these systems to balance security demands, the rule of law, and political legitimacy within a region that continues to face uncertain and evolving challenges.

08/04/2026

The End of Wars and Identifying the Biggest Winner: A Brief Academic Analysis

The end of wars represents a pivotal stage in international relations, marking a shift from conflict dynamics to the reestablishment of balance and the construction of new arrangements. In contemporary studies, “victory” is no longer measured solely by military outcomes, but by a set of political, economic, and strategic indicators that emerge after hostilities cease.

First, a party may appear to win militarily by imposing its conditions on the ground; however, such superiority can be temporary if it is not translated into sustainable political stability. Second, the political winner is the one who succeeds in imposing its narrative and consolidating its legitimacy both domestically and internationally, even without achieving a decisive military victory. Third, economic power plays a crucial role, as some states or corporations benefit from post-war reconstruction or shifts in energy and trade markets.

Moreover, the literature suggests that the “biggest winner” is often the actor that minimizes its losses while maximizing its long-term gains, rather than the one that initiated the war or dominated its early stages. Indirect actors, such as major powers or economic stakeholders, may also benefit from the reconfiguration of power balances.

Conversely, populations are typically the greatest losers in most conflicts, bearing heavy human, economic, and social costs. Therefore, the end of war does not necessarily equate to justice, but rather signals the beginning of a new phase marked by challenges related to reconstruction and reconciliation.

In conclusion, identifying the biggest winner in wars is a complex and relative matter, closely tied to the ability of actors to convert conflict outcomes into sustainable advantages within the international system, rather than merely achieving immediate military success.
#تنيري

31/03/2026

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07/03/2026

The Last War Will Change the Course of History

Major wars throughout history have represented decisive turning points that reshape the international system and redistribute the balance of power among states. In this context, the recent war in the Middle East appears to be more than a conventional military confrontation; it may constitute a historical watershed capable of altering the trajectory of global political and strategic dynamics. The nature of the actors involved in the conflict, as well as the scale of international interests connected to it, make its outcomes potentially decisive in redefining the structure of the international order.

First, this war has revealed the fragility of the collective security system established after the Second World War. International institutions, particularly the United Nations, have appeared largely unable to contain the escalation or impose an effective political settlement. This inability reflects deeper transformations in the structure of global power, where traditional mechanisms of conflict management seem increasingly inadequate for addressing the complexities of the emerging international system.

Second, the war reflects the growing reality of multipolarity in global politics. Rather than the dominance of a single power or two rival superpowers, multiple regional and international actors now play overlapping roles in shaping, managing, or strategically exploiting the conflict. This transformation opens the door to a reconfiguration of global alliances and may lead to the emergence of more complex and fluid geopolitical balances.

Third, the economic dimensions of the conflict are likely to exert significant influence on the global economy, particularly regarding energy markets and international supply chains. The regions affected by the conflict occupy strategic positions within global trade routes, and any prolonged instability could accelerate the restructuring of trade corridors and the redirection of investments toward more stable regions.

Fourth, the war may accelerate technological and military transformations. Historically, major conflicts have driven states to intensify innovation in areas such as artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, and advanced military technologies. This technological competition may redefine the nature and conduct of warfare in the decades ahead.

Finally, the most profound consequence of this war may emerge at the level of global political consciousness. States and societies may be compelled to rethink fundamental concepts such as security, sovereignty, and international stability. Consequently, the effects of this war may extend far beyond its immediate geographical boundaries, potentially marking the beginning of a new historical phase in international relations that will shape global politics for decades to come.

01/03/2026

If the news has indeed been officially confirmed, the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader constitutes a pivotal moment in the history of the Islamic Republic, not merely as a security incident but as a structural test of the doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih, which forms the core of the political system. The first expected development would be the activation of the constitutional succession mechanism through the Assembly of Experts, which would convene urgently to appoint a new Supreme Leader in order to contain the symbolic and political vacuum. Simultaneously, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely consolidate its role as the principal guarantor of stability, potentially leading to a temporary increase in the militarization of governance. Domestically, a short-term rally-around-the-flag effect is probable, particularly if the assassination is attributed to an external actor, reinforcing the narrative of an existential threat that strengthens internal cohesion. Regionally, Iran’s response would likely be managed within a framework of calibrated deterrence to avoid a full-scale war that could strategically exhaust the state. Tehran may rely on indirect instruments to preserve deterrence without crossing thresholds that would trigger broad international intervention. Internationally, major powers would move swiftly to contain escalation, given the sensitivity of global energy markets and maritime routes. Economically, oil prices would likely experience sharp volatility reflecting uncertainty before stabilizing according to the trajectory of the crisis. In the medium term, the direction of the next phase will depend on the profile of the new Supreme Leader—whether inclined toward rigid continuity or tactical recalibration. Nevertheless, the structural resilience of the regime, including the cohesion of its security and religious institutions, suggests that continuity remains more probable than systemic collapse. Accordingly, the most plausible outcome is institutional adaptation under shock, with the core of Iran’s regional strategy remaining intact, even if its instruments evolve.

#تنيري

28/02/2026

The Israeli Preemptive Strike: Context, Motives, and Strategic Implications
The region has witnessed a serious security development marked by Israel carrying out a preemptive strike against a target it considers a direct threat to its national security. This operation falls within a well-established Israeli security doctrine based on the principle of “preventive deterrence” or what is often referred to as the “campaign between wars,” a strategy aimed at neutralizing threats before they materialize into an existential danger.
From a strategic perspective, Israel justifies such strikes as defensive measures in response to intelligence indicators suggesting military preparations, the transfer of advanced weapons, or the development of sophisticated missile capabilities by its adversaries, whether state or non-state actors. This rationale draws on a long historical experience, most notably the 1981 strike on Iraq’s nuclear reactor and the repeated operations in the Syrian arena over the past decade.
Regionally, the current strike raises several questions about the potential for escalation. If the response remains limited and calculated, the confrontation may stay within the undeclared rules of engagement that have governed the conflict. However, if retaliation expands to multiple fronts, the region could enter a broader cycle of escalation, particularly given the fragility of the regional environment and the multiplicity of armed actors.
Internationally, reactions are likely to be divided between those who view the strike as an exercise of the right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and those who consider it a violation of another state’s sovereignty and a destabilizing escalation. The positions of major powers—particularly the United States, Russia, and the European Union—will depend on the nature of the target, the scale of casualties, and the broader context of existing tensions.
Economically, such developments often lead to temporary disruptions in energy markets and financial markets, especially when they involve geopolitically sensitive areas. They may also affect the trajectory of regional normalization efforts and alliances that have undergone significant shifts in recent years.
In conclusion, the Israeli preemptive strike reflects the continued reliance on preventive deterrence within Israel’s security policy. At the same time, it places the region at a sensitive crossroads between containing escalation and sliding into a wider confrontation. The future trajectory will largely depend on the nature of the responses, the degree of restraint exercised by the involved parties, and the extent of international efforts to manage the crisis.

#تنيري

26/02/2026

Latest Developments in the Negotiations between Morocco and the Polisario Front: A Brief Academic Overview
The Western Sahara issue is witnessing accelerating diplomatic developments within the framework of the UN-led process, guided by MINURSO and the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy.
Morocco continues to uphold its Autonomy Initiative as a realistic and credible political solution, relying on growing support from influential international actors that view the proposal as a practical basis for settlement.
In contrast, the Polisario Front maintains its commitment to the option of a referendum, arguing that any solution must ensure the right to self-determination according to its legal interpretation.
Geopolitical shifts, particularly the positions of certain major powers supporting Morocco’s proposal, have reshaped the balance of negotiations and influenced mediation dynamics.
The resurgence of field tensions since 2020 has further weakened mutual trust and narrowed the space for political maneuvering.
The United Nations continues to advocate for the resumption of roundtable talks with the participation of all concerned parties, including Algeria and Mauritania, as key regional stakeholders.
Legally, the dispute remains listed on the UN agenda as a decolonization issue, granting it a complex normative dimension.
At the regional level, progress in negotiations is closely linked to Moroccan-Algerian relations, which are marked by structural tensions directly affecting the settlement process.
Internationally, the issue is influenced by shifts in the global order and the rise of pragmatic approaches that prioritize regional stability over theoretical solutions.
Accordingly, prospects for resolution remain contingent upon delicate international and regional balances, as well as the parties’ ability to move from a zero-sum logic toward a sustainable consensual solution.
#تنيري

27/01/2026

War at the Doorstep: An Analysis of the Prospects of Confrontation Between Iran and the United States
Relations between Iran and the United States are among the most tense in the contemporary international system, shaped by decades of political hostility, economic sanctions, and indirect conflicts. With escalating regional developments and increasing military movements and mutual rhetoric, the question of a direct war has resurfaced forcefully: is a confrontation between Tehran and Washington truly imminent?
The roots of this conflict lie in deep disagreements over regional influence, Iran’s nuclear program, and the security of U.S. allies in the Middle East. Iran seeks to consolidate its role as a major regional power, relying on a network of allies, while the United States views this expansion as a threat to its strategic interests and to the alliance system it leads.
Although both sides are aware of the enormous costs of a full-scale war, the logic of mutual deterrence does not eliminate the risk of unintended escalation, especially in the absence of trust and direct communication channels. A limited military incident or a political miscalculation could quickly turn into a broader confrontation that would be difficult to contain.
At the same time, diplomacy remains a viable—though fragile—option. Negotiations, whether direct or indirect, reflect an implicit recognition that war would not serve the interests of either side, neither in terms of regional stability nor global economic security.
In conclusion, a war between Iran and the United States is not inevitable, but it remains a real possibility in a turbulent international environment. Caught between the specter of confrontation and the option of compromise, the world watches closely, knowing that any spark in this conflict would not be confined to two parties, but would have repercussions across the region and the globe.

Ténéri center of north-west African geostrategic studies and researches

13/05/2026

25/04/2026

15/04/2026

10/04/2026

08/04/2026

31/03/2026

07/03/2026

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28/02/2026

26/02/2026

27/01/2026

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