19/11/2024
Amidst intensified aggressions, Hochstein has left Lebanon in a state of ambiguity. After initially confirming his arrival, he cancelled his visit, only to suddenly revert to the original schedule in meeting Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri. This reflects significant progression in negotiations especially afterensuring cohesion in Lebanon’s position before advancing to the next stage. Hochstein’s visit was not intended to declare a ceasefire but rather to discuss the Lebanese stance before heading to Tel Aviv. Now that Lebanon’s position has been clarified, the pressure shifts to Israel to respond in kind. As Hochstein stated, “it is within our grasp”, yet it is still too early to predict an outcome, as Israeli aggressions continue with strikes on central Beirut this Sunday killing six people, including Hezbollah’s senior spokesperson Mohammad Afif. These actions show little indication of a willingness to pursue peace or could signify one of Netanyahu’s final gambits before Trump’s inauguration.
Hochstein’s wavering attitude raises critical questions about U.S. mediation efforts. Are they genuinely aiming for de-escalation, carefully balancing perceptions of impartiality to preserve their regional status, or indirectly pressuring Lebanon to accept unfavorable concessions? Meanwhile, the escalation in Israeli attacks, coinciding with the conclusion of the U.S. elections, suggests that substantive progress may remain unlikely until the transition of power in Washington is complete. With Netanyahu intoxicated by impunity and attentive with escaping domestic scandals, there is little reason to believe Israel will respect a ceasefire.