14/10/2025
𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐆𝐨𝐥𝐝’𝐬 𝐁𝐞𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐋𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐅𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬
For the past few days, I have been studying how gold has behaved in India over the last five years. To make sense of the recent trend, I analysed data covering the past 50 years — comparing gold prices and India’s per-capita income. When I correlated both sets of numbers, some very interesting patterns emerged.
Over this half-century, India’s per-capita income has increased by about 175 times, which works out to an average annual rise of around 10.5 %. During the same period, gold prices have risen about 225 times, at an annual growth rate of roughly 10.8 %. In simple terms, gold has grown almost exactly in line with people’s incomes. It hasn’t dramatically outperformed India’s prosperity — it has simply mirrored it.
To measure this relationship more precisely, I calculated a “Beta” ratio — the percentage change in gold prices divided by the percentage change in income.
When Beta > 1, gold prices rose faster than income, which usually happened during crisis years such as 1979–82, 2008–10, and 2023–25.
When Beta < 1, income grew faster, which occurred during stable, high-growth phases like 2003–08 and 2015–20.
Across 51 years, the average Beta is around 1.0, showing that gold and income have largely moved together. Gold has been a steady mirror of India’s growth — neither a major outperformer nor a laggard.
My third parameter was the gold-to-income ratio, which measures how much of an average Indian’s annual income is required to buy 10 grams of gold. Over five decades, this ratio has averaged about 38 %. To make the trend clearer, I divided the data into four buckets:
20 – 30 %: Years such as 2003-04 to 2008-09 and 2015-16 to 2016-17 when gold was most affordable. These were high-growth, low-inflation periods when income rose faster than gold.
30 – 40 %: Years like 1975-76, 1976-77, 2000-01, 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2024-25 when income and gold moved almost in step — typical of balanced economic conditions.
40 – 50 %: Years such as 1988-89, 1994-96, 1998-99, 2011-12, and the current period 2025-26. In these times, gold became relatively expensive, usually because of inflation, currency weakness, or global uncertainty.
50 – 60 %: Extreme spikes during 1979-81 and 2008-10, which coincided with global crises — the oil shock and the financial meltdown.
At present, we are in the 40-50 % bracket, which means gold prices are on the expensive side. Ten grams of gold now cost nearly half of the average Indian’s annual income. Such phases occur when gold prices rise faster than incomes — typically during inflationary or uncertain times when people prefer safety over returns.
History shows that once gold reaches this 40-50 % zone, two outcomes usually follow within one to three years.
Incomes catch up: As inflation eases and the economy stabilises, per-capita income grows faster, bringing the ratio back into the 30 % range. For example, between 2010 and 2014, gold remained high in price, but rising salaries made it more affordable again.
Gold stabilises or corrects: After a surge, prices often flatten while incomes continue to rise. After 2011, for instance, gold stayed around ₹30,000 for several years even as incomes jumped by 50 %.
In short, whenever gold enters the 40-50 % affordability zone, it is followed by a two-to-three-year cooling period where income growth outpaces gold. This pattern has repeated across decades and suggests that the current high gold prices are likely to be temporary, with incomes set to catch up once again.