CSIS Indonesia - Centre for Strategic and International Studies

CSIS Indonesia - Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS is Indonesia's oldest and leading think-tank focusing on strategic political, security & economy The CSIS logo embodies the centre's philosophy.

The original, in bronze, was designed by Indonesia's renowned sculptor G. Sidharta and comprises a disc with an engraving of the globe, which serves as a backdrop to a youth with an open book on a cloth draped across his lap. His left hand is marking the book and his right hand is raised upwards. All these elements combine to project the Centre's nature as an institution, where people think, learn and share their knowledge. Mankind is their concern and the world their horizon. The undressed torso symbolises open-mindedness and the absence of prejudice. Nalar Ajar Terusan Budi, the inscription on the disc, conveys the Centre's belief that "to think and share knowledge are the natural consequences of an enlightened mind."

As part of the Indonesia International Sustainability Forum (ISF) 2026 Side Events, the Green Investment Principles (GIP...
02/10/2026

As part of the Indonesia International Sustainability Forum (ISF) 2026 Side Events, the Green Investment Principles (GIP) ASEAN Chapter, in collaboration with CSIS Indonesia and the Indonesian International Islamic University (UIII), cordially invites you to the GIP ASEAN Research Dissemination titled “The Emerging Carbon Pricing Landscape in Southeast Asia”

📅 Monday, 5 October 2026
⏰ 09.30–13.00 WIB (GMT+7)
📍 CSIS Auditorium, Pakarti Centre Building, 3rd Floor, Jl. Tanah Abang III No. 23–27, Jakarta 10160

Please confirm your attendance by registering at bit.ly/ISF2026SideEvents

Due to limited seating, attendance is subject to confirmation. Only participants who receive a confirmation email will be admitted.

Those unable to secure a seat may join the event via livestream:
🔴 https://csis.or.id/L/ISF2026

See you there! 👋

Iran's use of missiles, drones, mines, small attack boats and dispersed forces around the Strait of Hormuz has attracted...
30/09/2026

Iran's use of missiles, drones, mines, small attack boats and dispersed forces around the Strait of Hormuz has attracted attention in Indonesia. Its asymmetric anti-access and area-denial approach shows how relatively affordable systems can complicate a stronger adversary's operations.

Muhammad Fauzan Malufti argues that Indonesia should study these lessons closely, but the Hormuz model should not be copied as a ready-made strategy.

The central distinction is between sea denial and sea control. Sea denial makes waters dangerous or limits an adversary's freedom of action. Sea control allows a state to use those waters for its own operations and protect essential routes. Iran demonstrated an ability to disrupt maritime traffic and raise operating costs. Yet, as Malufti writes, "However, making a strait dangerous is not the same as controlling it." Iran could threaten commercial shipping, but it did not protect its own ports, vessels and shipping lanes from attack, interdiction and blockade.

Indonesia's strategic problem is different. The sea connects thousands of islands and carries troops, fuel, food and other essential goods. The commentary cites imports meeting almost 60% of domestic gasoline demand and around 72% of LPG demand (CNN Indonesia, 2026; Kumparan News, 2026). A prolonged maritime disruption could therefore affect military operations, transport and the wider economy. Unlike Iran, Indonesia lacks equivalent overland and Caspian trade routes that can serve as secondary lifelines.

The operational evidence also requires caution. Iran's clearest successes have been against merchant vessels, which are slow, predictable and concentrated in a narrow strait. As of the commentary's publication, neither Iran nor its proxies had sunk or hit U.S., European or Gulf warships, while U.S. warships continued operating in and around Hormuz (LaPorta, 2026; Jensen, 2026). Disrupting shipping is therefore not proof that the same approach can stop a modern naval fleet.

Indonesia must also consider law. Indiscriminately obstructing its archipelagic sea lanes could undermine UNCLOS, the legal framework that validates its status as an archipelagic state (Beckman and Koh, 2026).

Finally, low-cost capabilities work both ways. A stronger opponent can also deploy drones, unmanned vessels and AI-enabled systems at scale. Investments in strike systems must therefore be matched by counter-drone defences.

Malufti's recommendation is a balanced maritime strategy: sea denial combined with at least local sea control, convoy protection, resilient logistics and the ability to keep critical waters open for Indonesia's own use.

Read the full commentary, "The Hormuz Trap: Why Indonesia Should Not Simply Copy Iran," by Muhammad Fauzan Malufti, Researcher, Department of International Relations, CSIS Indonesia.

https://csis.or.id/P/COM01726

On 14 September 2026, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted the National Security College Exe...
28/09/2026

On 14 September 2026, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted the National Security College Executive Development Program.

The program featured three key sessions.

Indonesia’s Strategic Outlook and ASEAN in the Era of Great Power Competition examined how Indonesia under the Prabowo administration assesses and responds to the dynamic strategic landscape.

Indonesia and Australia’s Security Nexus Post-Jakarta Treaty discussed how Jakarta views the significance of the 2026 Jakarta Treaty and the evolving defense partnership between Indonesia and Australia in a contested regional environment.

The program also featured Addressing Misinformation, Disinformation, and Radicalization in the Digital Era, examining how misinformation, disinformation, online radicalization, and vulnerabilities of information operations have become significant challenges for both Indonesia and Australia, as well as how governments, civil societies, and tech platforms should work together to respond to these evolving threats.

The program concluded with a Networking Dinner featuring a dinner speech on Strengthening Strategic Trust Between Indonesia and Australia: A Retrospective Approach.

Take a look at moments from the program✨

CSIS Indonesia participated in the WTO Public Forum 2026 through the session “Trust, Data, Trade: Powering Digital Servi...
28/09/2026

CSIS Indonesia participated in the WTO Public Forum 2026 through the session “Trust, Data, Trade: Powering Digital Services” in Geneva. During the discussion, Yose Rizal Damuri shared perspectives from Indonesia and ASEAN on the importance of building trust, aligning data and trade policies, and strengthening interoperability to support the growth of digital services and digital trade across the region.

The session brought together perspectives from international organisations, regional policy experts, and digital-service practitioners to examine how trust and interoperability can support a more open, secure, and inclusive digital economy.

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan seminar bertajuk “⁠Masa Depan Pemilu Indonesia: Apa yang Harus Diubah atau Dipertah...
27/09/2026

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan seminar bertajuk “⁠Masa Depan Pemilu Indonesia: Apa yang Harus Diubah atau Dipertahankan?”.

Acara ini akan diadakan pada:
📅 Senin, 28 September 2026
🕤 09.30 – 12.00 WIB
📍 Auditorium CSIS, Gedung Pakarti Centre Lt. 3, Jl. Tanah Abang III No. 23-27, Jakarta Pusat

Pembuka:
Medelina K. Hendytio, Wakil Direktur Eksekutif, CSIS

Seminar ini akan menghadirkan sejumlah pembicara dari berbagai latar belakang untuk membahas masa depan pemilu Indonesia.

Pembicara:
Arya Fernandes, Ketua, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS
Edbert Gani, Peneliti, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS
Amalinda Savirani, Guru Besar Fisipol, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Djayadi Hanan, Direktur Eksekutif, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI)

Moderator:
Vidhyandika D. Perkasa, Direktur Riset dan Peneliti Senior, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS

Untuk kehadiran langsung, silakan registrasi melalui:
🔗 https://csis.or.id/R/SeminarPemilu

Sampai jumpa! 👋🏻

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan seminar bertajuk “Masa Depan Pemilu Indonesia: Apa yang Harus Diubah atau Dipertaha...
24/09/2026

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan seminar bertajuk “Masa Depan Pemilu Indonesia: Apa yang Harus Diubah atau Dipertahankan?”.

Acara ini akan diadakan pada:
📅 Senin, 28 September 2026
🕤 09.30 – 12.00 WIB
📍 Auditorium CSIS, Gedung Pakarti Centre Lt. 3, Jl. Tanah Abang III No. 23-27, Jakarta Pusat

Pembuka:
Medelina K. Hendytio, Wakil Direktur Eksekutif, CSIS

Seminar ini akan menghadirkan sejumlah pembicara dari berbagai latar belakang untuk membahas masa depan pemilu Indonesia.

Pembicara:
Arya Fernandes, Ketua, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS
Edbert Gani, Peneliti, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS
Amalinda Savirani, Guru Besar Fisipol, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Djayadi Hanan, Direktur Eksekutif, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI)

Moderator:
Vidhyandika D. Perkasa, Direktur Riset dan Peneliti Senior, Departemen Politik dan Perubahan Sosial, CSIS

Untuk kehadiran langsung, silakan registrasi melalui:
🔗 https://csis.or.id/R/SeminarPemilu

Sampai jumpa! 👋🏻

Indonesia's proposed 2027 state budget paints an encouraging picture: growth accelerating to 6%, inflation held at just ...
23/09/2026

Indonesia's proposed 2027 state budget paints an encouraging picture: growth accelerating to 6%, inflation held at just 2.5%, the rupiah steady around Rp17,500 per dollar, and the fiscal deficit narrowing to 2.4% of GDP.
As CSIS Indonesia's Deni Friawan points out, none of these targets is unreasonable on its own. The question is whether they can all hold at the same time.

Indonesia has repeatedly returned to growth of around 5% over the past decade, a reasonable starting point for thinking about its current potential growth. Pushing growth to 6% while inflation stays low at 2.5% means the economy has to produce significantly more without prices climbing to absorb the extra demand. That requires a real jump in the economy's productive capacity, not just stronger spending.

More investment alone will not get Indonesia there. Danantara, foreign investment, and public projects can supply capital. Still, Indonesia's Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR), currently around 5-6, means it already takes a relatively large amount of investment to generate each additional unit of growth. Without better project selection, technology, and productivity, more capital may not translate into proportionately more output.

There's also a timing mismatch: financing can be mobilized quickly, but factories, worker skills, and productivity gains take years to build. That means new spending can lift demand well before the matching supply arrives, putting pressure on prices, the rupiah, or interest rates in the meantime, precisely the kind of pressure that can discourage the private investment Indonesia needs most.

This matters because 6% growth is not just a forecast, it feeds directly into the government's revenue targets and its broader ambition of reaching 8% growth by the end of President Prabowo's term. If growth remains closer to 5%, meeting the same revenue target would require considerably stronger tax collection.
If the assumptions do not fully hold, Friawan argues the likely outcome is not a crisis, but something more persistent: growth near 5%, somewhat higher inflation and interest rates, disappointing revenue, and more financing routed through the government, Danantara, and state-owned enterprises. Indonesia could still look stable on paper, even as public-sector leverage rises and private investment could increasingly be crowded out.

The real question behind the 2027 budget: what has genuinely changed on the supply side to make 6% growth sustainable, rather than simply hoped for?
Read the full commentary by Deni Friawan, Senior Researcher, Department of Economics, CSIS Indonesia.

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan diskusi publik bertajuk “Mencari Format Peraturan Ketenagakerjaan yang Melindungi d...
23/09/2026

CSIS Indonesia akan menyelenggarakan diskusi publik bertajuk “Mencari Format Peraturan Ketenagakerjaan yang Melindungi dan Mendukung Daya Saing”. Acara ini akan diadakan pada:

📅 Kamis, 24 September 2026
🕤 09.00 – 12.00 WIB
📍 Auditorium CSIS, Gedung Pakarti Centre Lt. 3, Jl. Tanah Abang III No. 23-27, Jakarta Pusat

Untuk kehadiran langsung, silakan registrasi melalui:
🔗 https://csis.or.id/R/SeminarKetenagakerjaan

Sampai jumpa! 👋🏻

Indonesia memiliki posisi penting dalam industri nikel global, dengan sekitar 55–60% pangsa produksi dan 42% cadangan du...
23/09/2026

Indonesia memiliki posisi penting dalam industri nikel global, dengan sekitar 55–60% pangsa produksi dan 42% cadangan dunia. Posisi ini berhadapan dengan harga nikel yang berada di kisaran US$16,000–17,000 per ton pada 2024–2025, tekanan kelebihan pasokan, serta struktur rantai nilai yang masih membatasi bargaining power Indonesia.

Sustainable Trade Forum #3 di Manado membahas bagaimana hilirisasi mineral dapat dibangun sebagai satu ekosistem yang menghubungkan kebijakan, industri, investasi, teknologi, R&D, SDM, demand, dan akses pasar. Pembahasan mencakup daya saing smelter, umur cadangan, pemanfaatan by-products, penguasaan teknologi, pilihan pembiayaan, persyaratan green trade. Pembahasan forum mencakup daya saing smelter, umur cadangan, pemanfaatan by-products, penguasaan teknologi, pilihan pembiayaan, dan persyaratan green trade. Daya saing smelter semakin dipengaruhi oleh kualitas bijih, kebutuhan energi, biaya processing, royalty and pricing frameworks, serta ketersediaan input. Strategi jangka panjang juga perlu memperkuat R&D hulu, recovery, recycling, dan pemanfaatan cobalt, scandium, serta kandungan mineral lain sebagai by-product maupun co-product.

Akses pasar global semakin bergantung pada carbon footprint, traceability, MRV, dan standar keberlanjutan. Persyaratan ini perlu diperhitungkan sejak tahap produksi, investasi, dan perumusan kerja sama perdagangan agar industri hilir tetap kompetitif.

Implementasi di tingkat kawasan industri membutuhkan kepastian lahan, kesiapan infrastruktur, harmonisasi regulasi dan dokumen lingkungan, serta konektivitas logistik. Site visit ke BUPP KEK Bitung mencatat kawasan seluas 434 ha, investasi kumulatif Rp2,874 triliun, dan 1.439 tenaga kerja, sekaligus memperlihatkan sejumlah implementation gaps yang masih perlu diselesaikan.

Agenda tindak lanjut mencakup penajaman tujuan hilirisasi, evaluasi royalty and pricing frameworks, diversifikasi mitra teknologi dan pembiayaan, penguatan R&D, perbaikan koordinasi kebijakan, pengembangan price discovery, serta penyelarasan skills, research, investment, and jobs.

Simak rangkuman diskusi Sustainable Trade Forum #3 dan temuan site visit ke BUPP KEK Bitung dalam carousel berikut.

What counts as national defence in Indonesia is becoming harder to define. Food and energy security, public health, tech...
22/09/2026

What counts as national defence in Indonesia is becoming harder to define. Food and energy security, public health, technology and social welfare are increasingly discussed through the language of defence. The Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) have also assumed more visible roles in civilian government programmes.

The 2025-2029 General Defense Policy recognises hybrid and non-military challenges while preserving the formal post-Reformasi division of labour: the TNI handles military threats, civilian institutions lead non-military responses, and hybrid threats require coordination. It also treats food, energy, science and technology, culture, spatial planning and disaster management as parts of the defence system.

Pandie writes, "Yet recognising that these issues have implications for national security is not the same as concluding that they should become military responsibilities."

In practice, TNI roles span land-clearing for agricultural development, the Free Nutritious Meals programme, Red-White Village Cooperatives and public health during COVID-19 (Tempo, 2026; CNN Indonesia, 2026; Secretariat of State, 2026; Honna, 2022). The commentary also notes proposals or directives involving Babinsa tax monitoring, forest-fire education and street crime (Kompas and Kompas.com, 2026). The TNI's role in disaster relief, humanitarian assistance and emergency logistics remains indispensable. Pandie's concern is the normalisation and continued expansion of military involvement in non-defence activities.

The first risk falls on the TNI. Every additional non-defence responsibility competes for finite personnel, time and resources while the military must prepare for maritime and territorial defence, cyber threats, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and the undersea domain. Personnel assigned to agricultural or welfare programmes are unavailable for operational training, while equipment used for civilian tasks continues to incur operating and maintenance costs. Limited budgets and fragmented defence planning make strategic prioritisation more difficult (Laksmana, 2025).

The second risk is the gradual weakening of civilian capacity. The TNI's territorial reach, logistical assets and rapid mobilisation can resolve immediate problems. Repeated reliance on military capabilities may reduce political incentives to invest in civilian institutions because immediate challenges appear to have been addressed through deployment rather than bureaucratic reform.

Military participation in many programmes has been requested by civilian leadership rather than initiated by the armed forces (Laksmana, 2019; Honna, 2022). As Pandie writes, "Civilian leadership can therefore maintain formal civilian control on paper while still contributing to the gradual militarisation of governance."

Emerging threats require expertise across government, state-owned enterprises, companies, universities, research institutes and the armed forces. Pandie calls for a two-way transformation: a TNI focused on readiness, modernisation and contemporary warfare, alongside civilian institutions capable of policymaking, oversight and accountability. Close civil-military coordination should be supported by a stronger civilian defence ecosystem, including meaningful and transparent engagement with universities, think tanks, civil society, independent experts and the media.

Read the full commentary by Pieter Alexander Pandie, Researcher, Department of International Relations, CSIS Indonesia.

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