CSIS Indonesia - Centre for Strategic and International Studies

CSIS Indonesia - Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS is Indonesia's oldest and leading think-tank focusing on strategic political, security & economy The CSIS logo embodies the centre's philosophy.

The original, in bronze, was designed by Indonesia's renowned sculptor G. Sidharta and comprises a disc with an engraving of the globe, which serves as a backdrop to a youth with an open book on a cloth draped across his lap. His left hand is marking the book and his right hand is raised upwards. All these elements combine to project the Centre's nature as an institution, where people think, learn

and share their knowledge. Mankind is their concern and the world their horizon. The undressed torso symbolises open-mindedness and the absence of prejudice. Nalar Ajar Terusan Budi, the inscription on the disc, conveys the Centre's belief that "to think and share knowledge are the natural consequences of an enlightened mind."

02/06/2026

A revision to the Police Law before the House could extend National Police chief Gen. Listyo Sigit Prabowo's tenure, and the stakes run deeper than procedure. The pivotal change, Article 30, raises the retirement age of four-star generals from 58 to 60, with extensions of up to three more years "according to the President's needs," reaching a potential 63. In practice, Listyo, due to retire in 2027, could stay until 2029 or beyond at presidential discretion. Critics read this as de facto lex specialis: a rule framed as general but engineered to preserve one figure.

It inverts two logics. First, policing as a social contract: society grants the police a monopoly on force in exchange for lawful conduct, so legitimacy rests on restraint and merit, not proximity to power. Second, the KPRP reform diagnosis, which builds capable leaders upstream through merit and integrity. The revision patches the output instead, turning what the KPRP intended as a narrow presidential safety valve into the operative mechanism, exactly the slide from exception to rule it warned against.

đź“š Read the insight from D. Nicky Fahrizal, Researcher, Department of Politics and Social Change, CSIS Indonesia, in csis.or.id/A/RewritingPoliceLaw.

CSIS Indonesia commemorates Pancasila Day.May this day serves as a reminder to strengthen our shared sense of nationhood...
01/06/2026

CSIS Indonesia commemorates Pancasila Day.

May this day serves as a reminder to strengthen our shared sense of nationhood, uphold unity in diversity, and continue fostering solidarity amid differences.

On this day, let us reflect on the values of compassion, wisdom, and inner peace taught by the Buddha.May the light of B...
31/05/2026

On this day, let us reflect on the values of compassion, wisdom, and inner peace taught by the Buddha.

May the light of Buddha's wisdom shine upon you. May this sacred day inspire tranquility, contentment, and kindness in every step of your journey.

Wishing you a blessed and meaningful Vesak Day.

Eid Al-Adha Mubarak 🌙As we commemorate Eid Al-Adha 1447 H, may this moment inspire compassion, sincerity, and solidarity...
27/05/2026

Eid Al-Adha Mubarak 🌙

As we commemorate Eid Al-Adha 1447 H, may this moment inspire compassion, sincerity, and solidarity in our communities and beyond. May the spirit of sacrifice and generosity bring peace and meaningful reflection to us all.

Warm wishes from CSIS Indonesia to everyone celebrating.

Posisi fiskal Indonesia masih terlihat relatif stabil. Rasio utang terhadap PDB masih berada di tingkat moderat, sementa...
26/05/2026

Posisi fiskal Indonesia masih terlihat relatif stabil. Rasio utang terhadap PDB masih berada di tingkat moderat, sementara defisit fiskal masih berada di bawah batas legal pemerintah sebesar 3 persen dari PDB.

Namun, risiko fiskal terbesar saat ini mungkin tidak lagi terletak pada solvabilitas semata. Risiko tersebut berada pada likuiditas.

Sistem fiskal Indonesia kini semakin rentan terhadap tiga tekanan struktural yang terjadi secara bersamaan: meningkatnya rigiditas belanja akibat program sosial berskala besar, kenaikan kewajiban pembayaran utang pasca ekspansi fiskal COVID-19, dan tingginya paparan terhadap guncangan harga minyak melalui subsidi energi.

Di antara berbagai tekanan tersebut, harga minyak muncul sebagai pendorong utama deteriorasi fiskal. Ketika harga minyak mentah Indonesia mencapai sekitar USD 85 per barel, defisit fiskal mulai melampaui ambang batas 3 persen. Di atas titik tersebut, tekanan fiskal menjadi semakin non-linear, di mana kenaikan harga minyak tambahan menghasilkan tekanan fiskal yang jauh lebih besar.

Beberapa skenario tekanan fiskal tahun 2026 juga menunjukkan seberapa cepat kondisi likuiditas dapat memburuk dalam tekanan eksternal yang berat. Tanpa penyesuaian belanja, saldo kas pemerintah masuk ke area negatif di akhir tahun ketika pembayaran subsidi, belanja modal, dan kewajiban utang meningkat secara bersamaan.

Di sisi lain, penyesuaian belanja yang moderat secara signifikan memperbaiki ketahanan likuiditas, sementara penyesuaian yang lebih besar menciptakan ruang fiskal tambahan yang substansial.

Pada akhirnya, pertanyaan yang relevan bukan hanya seberapa besar utang pemerintah, melainkan seberapa siap pemerintah mengelola likuiditas ketika tekanan datang bersamaan. Itulah yang kini menentukan ketahanan fiskal Indonesia yang sesungguhnya.

Baca analisis lengkap Dwiwulan dan Deni Friawan dari CSIS Indonesia:
đź”— https://csis.or.id/P/COM01226

CSIS Indonesia is hosting a DfD Lab Lecture and in-conversation session with Professor Erik Voeten on “Great Power Compe...
26/05/2026

CSIS Indonesia is hosting a DfD Lab Lecture and in-conversation session with Professor Erik Voeten on “Great Power Competition and the Politicization of Energy Trade: Implications for Developing Countries.”

đź“… Thursday, 4 June 2026
🕥 09.30–12.30 WIB

For on-site attendance, kindly confirm your attendance at:
đź“© csis.or.id/R/DfDLecture2026

See you there!đź‘‹

CSIS Indonesia invites you to join a seminar titled "Beyond Commitments: Delivering the Next Phase of Indonesia-Korea Re...
20/05/2026

CSIS Indonesia invites you to join a seminar titled "Beyond Commitments: Delivering the Next Phase of Indonesia-Korea Relations After the 2026 Prabowo-Lee Summit."

The discussion will explore the future direction of Indonesia–Korea relations following the 2026 Prabowo–Lee Summit, including strategic cooperation and emerging opportunities between both countries.

đź“… Monday, May 25, 2026
🕚 09:00 – 13:00 WIB

Watch the seminar live through the following YouTube link:
https://csis.or.id/L/IndonesiaROKSeminar

Tune in and join the discussion! 👋🏼

ini captionsnya kak, mohon di cek

18/05/2026

On May 12, the rupiah closed at Rp17,512 per US Dollar, the weakest in Indonesia's recorded history. With markets barely reacting, it is a sign that what should be an anomaly is becoming routine. Down 5% year-to-date and reached 11% since President Prabowo Subianto took office, the currency's slide is already pushing fiscal pressure into the trillions of rupiah against the 2026 budget estimation.

The deeper problem is structural. For three decades, Indonesia has run chronic current account deficit, drained by freight payments, tourism, digital services, and profit repatriation by foreign investors. To finance these gaps, Indonesia relies on mobile portfolio inflows that rapidly exit when global risk rises, compounded by a savings shortfall, fiscal deficits near the 3% GDP legal ceiling, and a commodity-dependent export base that makes earnings volatile.

Bank Indonesia's (BI) tools can only do so much. Reserves have already fallen from $156.5 billion to $148.2 billion since December 2025. What Indonesia really needs is export diversification, fiscal reform, and deeper financial markets, well beyond any Bl mandate. Without it, each global shock will repeat the same cycle, Rp17,500 will one day look like a floor, not a ceiling.

đź“š Read the insight from Deni Friawan, Senior Researcher, Department of Economics, CSIS, in csis.or.id/A/RupiahDecline.

He ascended into heaven and inspires us to rise in faith and love.On this Ascension Day, may we continue to walk with ho...
14/05/2026

He ascended into heaven and inspires us to rise in faith and love.

On this Ascension Day, may we continue to walk with hope, strengthen our faith, and share the love and kindness with those around us.

May this day remind us that even in moments of uncertainty, faith gives us strength to keep moving forward. Let us carry peace in our hearts and live every day with gratitude and purpose.

13/05/2026

ASEAN is facing growing pressure from geopolitical rivalry, food insecurity, and energy disruptions. In this context, the recent ASEAN Summit in Cebu highlighted the urgency for member states to move beyond symbolic cooperation toward stronger regional resilience.

President Prabowo Subianto’s remarks at the Summit emphasized three key principles ASEAN must retain to remain relevant: resilience, unity, and peaceful cooperation. As global politics becomes increasingly fragmented and unilateral, ASEAN’s ability to “act together” and “speak with one voice” will determine whether the organization can maintain its centrality and long-term relevance.

Yet these principles require more than rhetoric. ASEAN continues to face institutional limitations in responding quickly to regional crises, underscoring the need for stronger crisis response mechanisms and sustained regional leadership.

đź“š Read the full insight from Jusuf Wanandi and Lina A. Alexandra and in https://csis.or.id/A/ASEANSummit26

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Pakarti Centre Building
Jakarta
10160

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Monday 08:30 - 17:00
Tuesday 08:30 - 17:00
Wednesday 08:30 - 17:00
Thursday 08:30 - 17:00
Friday 08:30 - 17:00

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+6282299191971

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