Future Potentials Observatory - FPO

27/04/2026

We are excited to share that Zoltán Krajcsák and Gyula Bakacsi have published a new article in the Journal of Modelling in Management.

“Multi-level theoretical framework for future potential organizations: values, culture, and development orientation” introduces a novel, integrative framework designed to better understand complex future-oriented systems across multiple levels. The study contributes to advancing how we conceptualize and model interconnected phenomena, offering new pathways for both research and practical decision-making.
By bridging different levels of analysis and perspectives, the paper supports a deeper, more systemic understanding of future potentials – an increasingly critical capability in today’s rapidly changing world.

Read the full article: https://www.emerald.com/jm2/article/doi/10.1108/JM2-07-2025-0338/1361165/Multi-level-theoretical-framework-for-future

Congratulations to the authors on this important contribution!

Purpose. This study aims to focuse on future potential organizations (FPOs). We seek to answer the question of which individual, interpersonal and organizational factors, capabilities and values are the most important predictors of the functioning of FPOs.Design/methodology/approach. This being a co...

13/04/2026

We are delighted to share the latest research by Amira Mouakher, Nuno Morgado, and Farah Ftouhi, “LLM4Geopolitics: A Framework Leveraging Large Language Models for Predicting Geopolitical Events,” published in Expert Systems.

The paper introduces an innovative framework that combines large language models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation, and knowledge graphs to enhance the prediction and interpretation of geopolitical events.

🌍 Key highlights:
• Leveraging LLMs for real-time geopolitical analysis
• Improving prediction of unrest, economic shocks, and diplomatic shifts
• Bridging the gap between complex models and decision-ready insights
• Enhancing interpretability and contextual awareness in forecasting

Congratulations to the authors on this outstanding and inspiring contribution! 👏

🔗 Read the full paper:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/exsy.70258

The accelerating infusion of advanced computational methods into geopolitical analysis has created new opportunities to anticipate unrest, economic shocks and diplomatic shifts. Traditional machine l...

10/02/2026

We are delighted to share that a new article by Federico Pachetti has been published in the internationally respected, peer-reviewed journal Asian Studies Review.

The article examines how American scholars interpreted and made sense of China’s early Reform and Opening-up period, highlighting the role of uncertainty, knowledge production, and intellectual exchange in shaping early understandings of contemporary China.

Further information on the article here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10357823.2025.2605565?src=

Warm congratulations to Federico Pachetti on this important publication — a valuable contribution to international academic debate.

This article explores the knowledge that American scholars acquired about the initial phase of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) reform and opening up, from the late 1970s until the mid-1980s....

07/01/2026

We are thrilled to announce that the article “Stakeholder engagement in decarbonisation and ESG strategies: Investigating global patterns of energy companies in CCUS innovation”, authored by Zoltán Csedő, Máté Zavarkó, Zoltán Sára and Gábor Pörzse, has been published in the Q1-ranked, peer-reviewed journal Energy Strategy Reviews (Elsevier), highlighting how external stakeholder collaboration accelerates CCUS innovation and enhances ESG performance across global energy companies.

A valuable contribution to the energy transition.
Congratulations to all authors on this outstanding achievement!

Full article (open access): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25003761

11/12/2025

We are delighted to share that Zoltán Oszkár Szántó has been awarded the prestigious Antal Máriás Memorial Medal!
This distinction is granted by the National Scientific Students’ Associations Council (OTDT) every two years to outstanding scholars who have made significant and lasting contributions to academic life, education, and talent development in Hungary.
Our warmest congratulations to Zoltán on this exceptional achievement!

I am proud to announce that I have been awarded the Antal Máriás Memorial Medal by the National Scientific Students’ Associations Council (OTDT) last week. Prof. Dr Antal Máriás was one of the most influential figures of talent management in Hungary throughout his carrier. The OTDT established...

17/11/2025

How should we imagine wellbeing in a sustainable future? In her new essay, Karina Vissonova, PhD, explores how colonial legacies have shaped modern understandings of wellbeing and asks whether we need pluriversal approaches that respect diverse lifeways.

This essay builds on research previously supported by Future Potentials Observatory and it inspires us to rethink what it truly means to design sustainable futures.

Read the full essay here:

A Special Edition of HUMAN FUTURES in Commemoration of the 26th Annual Conference.

12/11/2025

Congratulations to Nuno Morgado and Amira Mouakher on their new article in Russian Politics. A valuable and important piece — highly recommended.

A paper by Nuno Morgado, Leader of the Geopolitical Frontiers Project, Amira Mouakher, researcher at the Geopolitical Frontiers Project, and Farah Ftouhi (University of Birmingham) entitled ‘Analytical Geopolitics and Artificial Intelligence as Hybrid Approach: a Case Study was published by Russian Politics De Gruyter Brill.

This marks the first published article from the AI research group, Geopolitical Frontiers Research Project, at the Future Potentials Observatory (FPO).

In this paper, Nuno Morgado and his team explore how the fields of geopolitics and artificial intelligence (AI) intersect — and how combining them in a hybrid analytical approach can yield fresh insights into power relations, strategic decision-making, and emerging global dynamics.
Some of the key take-aways include:
• Leveraging AI tools and methods for geopolitical analysis and scenario-building
• Examining how hybrid approaches (blending qualitative analysis and human expertise + machine intelligence) can enhance understanding of geopolitical phenomena
• A case-study on the Russia-Ukraine War that illustrates the conceptual framework in action

The authors hope this contribution sparks thoughtful discussion on how AI is reshaping geopolitical analysis, and invites further research in this exciting space.

Further information on the article here:

PDF | Anticipating international conflicts is critical for geopolitical risk assessment and early warning. Using the Russia – Ukraine crisis as a case... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

26/09/2025

✨ The 2024 edition of the Future Potential Index (FPI) is now live on our website:https://api.mome.hu/uploads/Future_Potential_Index_2024_6a1496aff8.pdf

Launched in February 2025, the FPI 2024 is a composite index based on 22 indicators, measuring how prepared OECD countries are for the future. What sets the FPI apart is its innovative methodology — the combined set of indicators' latest value and change over the years shows the dynamic performance of each country, resulting in the overall ranking and the detailed future potential profile of each country.

The FPI provides scholars, policy experts, and decision-makers with a forward-thinking framework to inform strategy and shape long-term visions, helping manage the future in a more holistic way.

20/09/2025

☞ Economic Complexity: How Machine Learning Helps Us Understand Economic Growth and Development

In his FPO TALKS 2025 lecture, Cesar A. Hidalgo explained a research project he had participated in for 20 years. The project tries to understand how countries develop using economic complexity tools related to machine learning.

Hidalgo is a professor at the Toulouse School of Economics’ (TSE) Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences and head of the Center for Collective Learning, a multidisciplinary research laboratory with offices at the Institute for Advanced Study (IAST) at TSE and the Corvinus Institute of Advanced Studies (CIAS) at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

Watch the full talk on YouTube:
🔗

Cesar A. Hidalgo, professor at the Toulouse School of Economics’ (TSE) Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences and head of the Center for Collective Lea...

18/09/2025

A paper by Nuno Morgado, Leader of the Geopolitical Frontiers Project, and Esztella Varga, researcher at the Geopolitical Frontiers Project, entitled ‘Geopolitical continuity? An analysis of the Turkish Straits and Russian ambitions' was published in the Southeast European and Black Sea Studies.

The paper analyses the Turkish and Russian interests in the Turkish Straits. The paper’s main argument tests the traditional theoretical principle of the permanence of geography through a framework that deploys selected aspects of the model of neoclassical geopolitics. The application of this model – a cutting-edge development in the theory of geopolitics – constitutes one of the original contributions of this paper. After clarifying the researchers’ theoretical and methodological choices, the paper provides the historical context and the legal background of the Straits to expand the scope for the analysis of the distribution of power in the region. The Turkish and Russian geopolitical agents’ perceptions of space are also investigated, completing the methodological steps of the model. The researchers performed tests of their main argument in three case studies: (1) the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, (2) the 2014 Annexation of Crimea, and (3) the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War.

The paper can be accessed and read via the following link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14683857.2025.2515731

☞ The Geopolitical Frontiers Project is part of the Future Potentials Observatory (FPO). Publications by researchers of the Geopolitical Frontiers Project can be accessed via the following link: https://mome.hu/en/fpo-projektek/geopolitikai-utkozozonak

This paper analyses the Turkish and Russian interests in the Turkish Straits. The paper’s main argument tests the traditional theoretical principle of the permanence of geography through a framewor...