09/09/2026
🍂 AUTUMN 2026 – COULD A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN DEVELOP?
Meteorological autumn is now underway, and attention is beginning to turn towards what the rest of Autumn 2026 may bring.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This is a long-range outlook for the WHOLE OF THE UK — not specifically Kent.
At this distance, nobody can reliably predict individual storms, exact rainfall amounts or which areas will be affected weeks or months in advance. Long-range forecasting is about identifying possible overall patterns and probabilities, and these can change as we move through the season.
That said, the early indications currently suggest an increased chance of a wetter and more unsettled autumn than average across the UK.
🌧️ CURRENT EARLY OUTLOOK
The present probabilities are roughly:
• Wetter than average: 60–65%
• Near-average rainfall: 20–25%
• Drier than average: 15–20%
That DOES NOT mean it will rain constantly throughout autumn.
There should still be plenty of quieter periods, and high pressure could bring spells of dry, settled and occasionally quite warm weather.
However, the overall trend currently suggests the Atlantic may become increasingly influential as autumn progresses.
💨 COULD IT ALSO BECOME WINDY?
Potentially, yes. A more active Atlantic pattern would increase the chances of areas of low pressure approaching the UK, bringing periods of heavier rain and stronger winds.
Northern and western parts of the UK would normally be most exposed to Atlantic systems, but deeper areas of low pressure following a more southerly track could bring wet and windy conditions much more widely.
🌪️ DOES THIS MEAN A STORMY AUTUMN?
Not necessarily. There is currently an above-average chance of notable wet and windy spells, particularly later in autumn, but it is far too early to predict how many named storms we may see or whether any particular storm will affect the UK.
Exact storm tracks and intensity simply cannot be forecast months ahead.
🍁 SEPTEMBER
September looks likely to remain changeable. There should still be opportunities for warmer and settled spells, but Atlantic systems may increasingly interrupt these with rain, showers and occasionally stronger winds.
And remember, September can still produce some very warm weather, even during an unsettled month.
🍂 OCTOBER
October currently appears to carry an increased risk of wetter and windier conditions. If the Atlantic becomes more active, we could see several spells of low pressure bringing heavier rain and stronger winds, mixed with quieter and drier intervals in between.
This is also the point in autumn when the chances of more significant stormy periods naturally begin to increase.
🌧️ NOVEMBER
November could potentially become one of the more unsettled parts of Autumn 2026. Repeated Atlantic systems could bring spells of heavy rain and strong winds, while temperatures will naturally continue to fall.
The first more widespread frosts will become increasingly possible, and colder northerly outbreaks could eventually bring some early wintry weather to higher ground in northern Britain.
But confidence in that level of detail is VERY LOW at this stage.
🔍 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The key thing to remember is that this is a broad UK long-range outlook, not a day-to-day forecast. The overall pattern may change considerably as we move through September, October and November.
I’ll bring relevant information back down to the Kent level with the usual KWU forecasts and updates as we go along.
So at the moment, the headline is:
👉 A somewhat increased chance of a wetter, windier and more unsettled autumn across the UK but with plenty of uncertainty and quieter spells still very possible.
Would you prefer a wetter, windier autumn… or are you already missing summer? 😂
John – KWU
