NIESR

22/08/2026

What to do over the weekend? Apply to join the NIESR family as a Senior Economist!

All the details and how yo apply here ⬇️⬇️⬇️

https://hubs.la/Q04tTfmR0

22/08/2026

🔖 Following the publication of our summer Economic Outlook, this post explores the overall impact of the war in Iran.
It concludes that the UK economy faces £28.5 billion in lost growth over the next two years ⬇️

How much will the Iran war cost the UK economy? Analysis shows that over the first two years, the shock reduces cumulative real GDP by about £28.5 billion.

21/08/2026

From shifts to collection hurdles, UK have faced major hurdles recently.

In this Director David Aikman asks a critical question: Are UK statistics recovering? ⤵️

The Office for National Statistics has been in the doghouse for years. The Labour Force Survey deteriorated to the point that publication had to be suspended in late 2023. Producer price statistics were paused in April last year after the discovery of an error that had sat in a legacy system, uncorr

20/08/2026

Responding to an earlier blog post from David Aikman, in which he argues that a front-loaded fiscal squeeze would be a beneficial policy for the new government- as it will likely avert the need for a larger adjustment later-, Mark Cliffe, a visiting professor at the London Institute of Banking & Finance suggests that an alternative would be a front-loaded fiscal stimulus that drives growth and improves fiscal sustainability:

Responding to a blog from David Aikman, this piece suggests the Prime Minister considers a front-loaded fiscal stimulus package to drive economic growth.

19/08/2026

We just published our latest analysis on inflation, suggesting that main driver of this month’s headline CPI figure was the 13 per cent increase in the Ofgem price cap, with households on variable tariffs feeling the greatest effects.

Also, our estimate of seasonally adjusted three-month annualised inflation increased to 3.3 per cent in July, up from 2.4 per cent in June, indicating underlying inflationary momentum is picking up more than the headline rate suggests

Read more here⬇️

For a breakdown of what inflation is and how it is calculated, read our blog post here. “Today’s ONS figures show annual CPI inflation came in at 2.9 per cent… To access the content, membership account is required. Get involved

18/08/2026

Our latest Tracker published this morning suggests that the labour market is proving more resilient than anticipated just a few months ago. However, wage growth remains subdued at around 3.5 per cent as labour demand remains insufficient to allow workers to secure stronger pay increases.

Read more here⬇️

“The labour market has proved more resilient than anticipated just a few months ago, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.9 per cent in the second quarter. However, wage growth… To access the content, membership account is required. Get involved

01/08/2026

🔖 The latest NIESR-CFM survey focused on the Prime Minister's new policy approach centered on more devolution

Panellists are not convinced greater devolution will significantly raise aggregate UK productivity relative to alternative policy approaches⤵️

Experts responding to the July 2026 CfM-NIESR survey downplayed the impact of greater devolution on UK economic growth relative to other policy approaches

30/07/2026

This month marks the centenary of the publication of John Maynard Keynes’ essay ‘The End of Laissez-Faire’.

Senior Economist Ben Caswell evaluates the policy proposals outlined then and asks whether, a century on, is there anything from the essay we could revive today?

A century on from the publication of "The End of Laissez-Faire", this blog summarises the main points from the essay and evaluates the policy proposals.

30/07/2026

'There's a lot of things we can spend our money on, a lot of demands to increase government spending, ... but given where we are with the debt level, we need to be thinking quite hard about tightening our belts to allow us to make room for these spending demands"

Director David Aikman talking to Calum Macdonald yesterday on Times Radio 📻⤵️

30/07/2026

⏰Less than 24 hours to go to the Economic Forum's kick off

We will be presenting the findings from our latest UK Economic Outlook which has been in the news this week, and that will be fully free to access tomorrow morning 🔓

Join us signing up here 📝⤵️

This webinar will explore the domestic and global factors shaping the UK's medium-term economic outlook and examine the themes from NIESR's latest forecast.