NIESR

11/10/2026

🔖 Should the Bank of England stop paying interest on commercial bank reserves to save taxpayers billions? 💸

It sounds like a quick fix for the public purse, but in our latest explainer, Deputy Director Stephen Millard outlines why changing course could do more harm than good ⤵️

As the Chancellor looks to find additional sources of revenue in his upcoming Budget, some commentators (e.g., Gerald Holtham) and politicians (e.g., Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice, both of Reform UK) have suggested that stopping the payment of interest on bank reserves might be a way of doing this

10/10/2026

🔖 The pledge to end the triple lock in 2030 adds to the list of difficult policy decisions whose implementation has been postponed to a future date.

This is going against the Government's aim of rebuilding credibility, and will also add significantly to the state pension bill, £5.8 billion per year by the end of the decade.

In this ahead of the Senior Economist Ben Caswell outlines what's wrong with the Prime Minister recent proposal around the triple lock🔒⤵️

Ending the triple lock The coalition government introduced the triple lock in 2011. It ensures the state pension rises each year by CPI inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent, whichever is the highest. On paper, this sounds like a useful safeguard against pensioner poverty, but in

09/10/2026

Which are the effects of taxation, revenue recycling and policy uncertainty in the UK?

NIESR latest Discussion Paper, out now, suggests that although revenue recycling improves the macroeconomic performance of carbon pricing, its effectiveness is progressively weakened by climate policy uncertainty

Read more here⤵️

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of carbon taxation, revenue recycling and climate policy uncertainty in the United Kingdom.

08/10/2026

Should the Bank of England stop paying interest on commercial bank reserves to save taxpayers billions? 💸

It sounds like a quick fix for the public purse, but in our latest explainer, just published, Deputy Director Stephen Millard explains why changing course could do more harm than good👇

As the Chancellor looks to find additional sources of revenue in his upcoming Budget, some commentators (e.g., Gerald Holtham) and politicians (e.g., Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice, both of Reform UK) have suggested that stopping the payment of interest on bank reserves might be a way of doing this

07/10/2026

'Beyond the Bubble: The Balancing Act'

Join NIESR and Ipsos for an exclusive webinar exploring the difficult choices at the heart of this year's Budget, with a great panel: Ipsos' Research Director Gideon Skinner, NIESR Director David Aikman and former BoE's Chief Economist Andy Haldane.

Sign up here ⤵️

https://hubs.la/Q04zq9sQ0

05/10/2026

The pledge to end the triple lock in 2030 adds to the list of difficult policy decisions whose implementation has been postponed to a future date.

This is going against the Government's aim of rebuilding credibility, and will also add significantly to the state pension bill, £5.8 billion per year by the end of the decade.

In the second of our explainers Senior Economist Ben Caswell outlines what's wrong with the Prime Minister proposal around the triple lock ⤵️

Ending the triple lock The coalition government introduced the triple lock in 2011. It ensures the state pension rises each year by CPI inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent, whichever is the highest. On paper, this sounds like a useful safeguard against pensioner poverty, but in

04/10/2026

🔖 The first of our explainers 💼

Senior Economist Peter Dixon sheds light on the growing tension between fiscal policy and monetary policy.

Here in full⤵️

This year’s Budget, scheduled for 28 October, takes place against a challenging economic and fiscal backdrop. Inflation looks set to go higher, as global energy prices remain elevated while there are concerns that this could also derail activity growth. Bond markets have reacted by pushing up US y...

03/10/2026

📺 Did you miss earlier in the week the 2026 Dow Lecture with MPC member Alan Taylor?

No worries, you can watch it back here ⤵️

The 2026 Dow Lecture on Monetary Policy examines one of the key sources of uncertainty facing the Bank of England today: the extent to which any further shocks to energy prices could give rise to more persistent inflationary pressures through so-called "second-round" general equilibrium effects.

02/10/2026

We just published the first of our explainers 💼💬

Senior Economist Peter Dixon examines the growing tension between fiscal policy and monetary policy.

Read the full blog for a deep dive into the macroeconomic balancing act facing policymakers⤵️

This year’s Budget, scheduled for 28 October, takes place against a challenging economic and fiscal backdrop. Inflation looks set to go higher, as global energy prices remain elevated while there are concerns that this could also derail activity growth. Bond markets have reacted by pushing up US y...

02/10/2026

Our latest Tracker has just been published⚡️

UK gilts hit their highest level in 19 years, with the 10-year yield rising 56 basis points to 5.43%. Around two-thirds of this increase came from higher interest rate expectations, as the conflict kept energy prices elevated and markets prices in further hikes

Read the analysis in full here ⤵️

UK 10-year gilt yields rose 59 basis points over the quarter to 5.43, their highest level since 2007. Around two-thirds of this increase came from higher interest rate expectations.