20/04/2026
Unnoticed by many, EU enlargement is moving forward at a steady pace. The European Commission is edging closer to wrapping up membership talks with Montenegro, and the council may soon set up a working group on drafting an accession treaty. Albania, the other frontrunner, is hoping to be in the EU by 2030, too. The commission may soon issue a positive assessment report on rule of law reforms, opening the final stage of negotiations with Tirana.
But what seems to be good news today might turn into a major headache for European policymakers tomorrow. It is only a matter of time before far-right populists in France, Germany, or the Netherlands wake up to the EU’s imminent expansion. Once they do, they will likely stoke fears of migration to boost their already substantial electoral numbers. Of the two frontrunners, Albania is particularly exposed, given its chronic problems with corruption and organised crime. But Montenegro, a much smaller country that is home to just 600,000 citizens, is not immune to bad press either. Securing ratification won’t be smooth sailing. In France, for example, there is a constitutional clause requiring either a three-fifths majority in both chambers of the legislature or a referendum, as a hold-over from efforts to keep Turkey out.
What Montenegro and Albania, along with the rest of the Western Balkans, need is to make a positive case for their membership. Geopolitical arguments—if it is not Brussels, Russia and China will be taking over—won’t do the trick. Rather, candidate countries should emphasize their tangible contribution to European security and welfare. They should style themselves as a net asset for the union, not a burden. And this messaging should not only be geared toward Brussels but also key member states.
Montenegro and Albania are frontrunners for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans, but they can’t just sit back and wait. To meet their 2030 accession ambitions, they must make a strong positive case.