22/09/2026
After Iceland’s European Union referendum, the bloc’s next big enlargement test lies on the Adriatic, where delay carries a strategic cost.
Iceland’s rejection of renewed EU accession talks will not push the country out of Europe. Iceland already belongs to the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone. It has access to the Single Market, applies much EU law and can afford to keep the political part of membership at arm’s length.
Montenegro is in the opposite position. It does not want an à la carte relationship with the European Union. It has spent 14 years negotiating full membership, has opened all 33 chapters and provisionally closed 18. Its problem is not how to remain comfortably outside the EU, but whether years of reform will end in membership or in another form of permanent waiting.
That distinction matters because countries are not strategically important in proportion to their population or GDP. Montenegro has fewer than 650,000 people and would have a negligible effect on the EU budget. Yet it occupies a sensitive part of the Adriatic, is a NATO member, borders the Union and sits inside a Western Balkan region where European, Russian, Chinese and Turkish interests meet. Its political direction matters beyond its economic weight.
Full article
https://emerging-europe.com/why-montenegro-matters-more-to-europe-than-its-size-suggests/
After Iceland’s European Union referendum, the bloc’s next big enlargement test lies in Montenegro, where delay carries a strategic cost.