The International Institute for Strategic Studies

The International Institute for Strategic Studies The International Institute for Strategic Studies is a world-leading authority on global security, po

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is a world-leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict.

Flávio Bolsonaro appears likely to become Brazil’s next president. His plans to tighten security, address organised crim...
12/10/2026

Flávio Bolsonaro appears likely to become Brazil’s next president. His plans to tighten security, address organised crime and bring about closer alignment with the US could limit Brasilia’s strategic autonomy. However, domestic and economic realities may constrain his room for manoeuvre.

Read the latest analysis by Dr Irene Mia: https://go.iiss.org/4e9us6H

The Middle East’s premier security summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue, will take place in the Kingdom of Bahrain on 30 Oct...
12/10/2026

The Middle East’s premier security summit, the IISS Manama Dialogue, will take place in the Kingdom of Bahrain on 30 October–1 November 2026. Ahead of the debate, we are pleased to share a selection of new writing by our experts covering some of the key issues that are likely to be discussed in Manama:

▪️ US defence cooperation in the Gulf since Trump’s return

Donald Trump’s second term has seen a marked increase in approvals of possible arms sales to the Gulf and announcements of localisation projects. The Iran war has contributed to this trend but brings challenges for Washington and the Gulf states: https://go.iiss.org/4ztGdx6

▪️ The defence dividend of the Abraham Accords

Israel’s defence exports to Abraham Accords countries, especially the United Arab Emirates, have notably risen since 2021. Defence-industrial cooperation between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi is also on the rise: https://go.iiss.org/4zm0jt0

▪️ Progress on the Syrian nuclear file, but questions remain

In September, the IAEA formally concluded its investigation into Syria’s outstanding nuclear safeguards issues. Almost 20 years after Israel’s bombing of the al-Kibar reactor, several questions remain: https://go.iiss.org/3VIwQem

▪️ The UAE propels towards greater defence-industrial autonomy

The United Arab Emirates is seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign suppliers of propulsion systems by building a sovereign industry, led by EDGE Group. While early partnerships yielded limited results, the conglomerate’s subsidiary Powertech has recently begun production: https://go.iiss.org/4rWR28g

IISS Manama Dialogue
30 October–1 November 2026

go.iiss.org/MD26

The Arctic and High North have re-emerged as an arena of competition and tension between Russia and Western states. NA...
12/10/2026

The Arctic and High North have re-emerged as an arena of competition and tension between Russia and Western states.

NATO’s stake in the region increased with the accession of Finland and Sweden, leading to new strategic and operational concerns for the Alliance, as well as important new military capability requirements and challenges.

FREE TO READ: https://go.iiss.org/475qE2g

IISS Prague Defence Summit: | Recordings and transcripts available now: go.iiss.org/PDS26

US President Donald Trump sees Canada not as a partner, but as a vassal state that must align itself politically, econom...
11/10/2026

US President Donald Trump sees Canada not as a partner, but as a vassal state that must align itself politically, economically and militarily with Washington's interests.

Analysis from Seva Gunitsky: https://go.iiss.org/3VQvtdt

The quantitative scale of US personnel reductions and the absence of direct European equivalents for certain platforms, ...
11/10/2026

The quantitative scale of US personnel reductions and the absence of direct European equivalents for certain platforms, such as strategic bombers, would make the replacement of these capabilities a significantly greater challenge for European alliance members than adapting to the potential changes to Washington’s forward-deployed forces.

The latest IISS Strategic Dossier examines critical areas for improving NATO’s operational capability and Europe’s defence self-sufficiency.

FREE TO READ: https://go.iiss.org/475qE2g

IISS Prague Defence Summit: | Recordings and transcripts available now: go.iiss.org/PDS26

As reciprocal suspicions inhibit diplomatic efforts to regulate artificial intelligence, some US and Chinese policymaker...
10/10/2026

As reciprocal suspicions inhibit diplomatic efforts to regulate artificial intelligence, some US and Chinese policymakers may default to inordinate faith in its military effectiveness.

Analysis from Tianjiao Jiang and Shawn Rostker: https://go.iiss.org/3VQvtdt

‘Today’s derisking race is an outgrowth of the simultaneous success and failure of America’s initial post-Cold War strat...
09/10/2026

‘Today’s derisking race is an outgrowth of the simultaneous success and failure of America’s initial post-Cold War strategy for dealing with China. It also marks the end of the third attempt by the US in the last 100 years to build an open, fully integrated world economy.

As had been true at the end of the first and second world wars, so again at the close of the Cold War, American policymakers hoped to bring to fruition the liberal dream of a ‘one-world’ global trading system in which freer flows of goods, capital and people would promote peace and freedom, as well as prosperity.’

FREE TO READ: Read the introduction chapter of the latest Adelphi book by Aaron L. Friedberg: https://go.iiss.org/4hABEK5

The proliferation of Chinese actors in the waters east of Taiwan is a significant development in Beijing’s grey-zone str...
09/10/2026

The proliferation of Chinese actors in the waters east of Taiwan is a significant development in Beijing’s grey-zone strategy, seemingly aimed at establishing a more complex governance system around the island.

Read the latest analysis by Erik Green: https://go.iiss.org/4s0fyFO

Democracies are establishing new intelligence services and updating their national security powers.The scale of reform i...
08/10/2026

Democracies are establishing new intelligence services and updating their national security powers.

The scale of reform is challenging, but democracies increasing their engagement with intelligence matters could revolutionise international security.

Read the latest analysis by Tom Field: https://go.iiss.org/4s3ssmf

We are delighted to announce a new group of speakers for this year’s Global Security and Innovation Summit (GSIS), takin...
08/10/2026

We are delighted to announce a new group of speakers for this year’s Global Security and Innovation Summit (GSIS), taking place in Hamburg on 9–10 December 2026.


Henrik Bliddal, Head of National Security and Defense, Nokia; Member, Defence Executive Council, DIGITALEUROPE, will join the session The European Innovation Ecosystem: Fast and Reslient Enough?.

Julia Carstens, State Secretary, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Transport, Employment, Technology and Tourism, State of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, will join the The Northern Hub for Security and Defence Innovation.

Jonathan Bass, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Argent LNG, US, will join the session Energy Resilience in Uncertain Times.

The Global Security Innovation Summit (GSIS) is a unique event – hosted by the IISS in cooperation with Hamburg Messe und Congress – designed to address emerging global security challenges and to explore cutting-edge solutions, drawing on fields such as cyber security, artificial intelligence, robotics, space, quantum computing and defence technologies.

It combines a high-level policy conference for political leaders, industry executives, technology pioneers and security experts with a curated exhibition showcasing cutting-edge technologies and innovations.

Find out more and explore the agenda now: https://go.iiss.org/GSISHamburg

Global Security and Innovation Summit |
Hamburg, 9–10 December 2026
https://go.iiss.org/GSISHamburg

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