17/06/2026
Many thanks to Professors Izuru Makihara and Nilsson-Wright for a fascinating discussion concerning the evolution and future trajectory of Japanese politics under the Takaichi administration.
In his presentation, Professor Makihara discussed the five defining characteristics of contemporary Japanese politics. The first was what he called the ‘bicameral contrast’, where the LDP holds a huge majority in the House of Representatives but not in the House of Councillors, where party fragmentation persists, along with internal governance problems within the LDP and opposition groups (characteristic two). He argued that because Takaichi has no reliable circle of aides or a coherent policy team, and the LDP dissolved its factions after the slush-fund scandal, coordination within the LDP, let alone the coalition with Nippon Ishin, is inadequate, making decision-making reactive rather than well thought out. Thus, he argued that despite Takaichi being seen as a strong leader in the West, her leadership is actually on an unstable footing; the reason there is no significant criticism of her within the LDP is because she won them the election.
The third characteristic Professor Makihara spoke of was the dissolving left-right axis, which in Japan traditionally split the left and right on issues such as collective self-defence and nuclear power. Now, he argued, the governing and opposition parties are broadly aligned on these issues, with Takaichi herself avoiding overtly right-wing gestures such as visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, perhaps in view of the divided House of Councillors.
The fourth characteristic is the fiscal and social security constraints Takaichi faces, namely her goal of directing a more fiscally interventionist government at a time when debt repayments are high and inflation risks are rising due to the Iran War (characteristic five). Professor Makihara argued that cross-party bodies such as the National Council on Social Security, which has an influential say when it comes to fiscal policy, effectively acts as a form of mini coalition government and could continue to have influence when or if Takaichi is gone. He also suggested that the long-term effects of the Iran War could be catastrophic, especially given that budget decisions haven’t been advanced and there is no new coherent economic policy on the table yet. Professor Makihara concluded his presentation by arguing that the Takaichi administration probably won’t become a stable long-term administration, with potential major changes occurring after the 2028 upper house elections.
Professor Nilsson-Wright then opened up a discussion with Professor Makihara, which covered whether the National Power Association within the LDP would bolster the PM and her cabinet or become its own faction; whether the alleged defamation scandal – comprising accusations that Takaichi’s staffers defamed her LDP leadership rivals and members of other parties – would make much of a difference to her popularity; whether the more active role of the state under Takaichi will lead to substantial policy; whether her successes in promoting Japan’s relationship with international partners and challenging post-war taboos such as arms exports will help establish stability in her government; and finally whether populism from both the right and left will squeeze the PM or give her more momentum for constitutional revision.
The professors’ discussion was following by a lively Q&A, where our audience asked questions related to potential restrictions on immigration, the state of the LDP-NI coalition, the potential role of prominent outlets such as Kyodo News and Nikkei in making the defamation allegations a more pressing issue for the administration, as well as questions related to Japan’s relation with China.
Many thanks again to both our speakers and to our audience for joining us this afternoon for this rich discussion!
![[Private View on 26 May] Only 4 days to go until the opening of our upcoming exhibition, "SECOND LAW" by Reijiro Wada.--...](https://img3.ngos1.com/735/262/1448014667352628.jpg)
