29/05/2026
China and Russia are drawing closer—and the goal of the United States should be to avoid driving them further into each other’s arms, expert Stuart Reid argues.
“Although the two powers have their differences, on every metric—economic, military, political, rhetorical—the general direction has been toward alignment rather than estrangement," he writes.
“China has been Russia’s largest trade partner for more than a decade, sending it manufactured goods in exchange for oil and gas,” Reid writes. “The two countries’ militaries regularly conduct joint exercises in the Arctic and South China Sea. Beijing has helped Moscow circumvent Western export controls by providing advanced technologies, from chips to drone parts, essential for Russia’s war in Ukraine.”
"There is also an undeniable human element to today’s partnership,” he writes. Former Chinese leader Mao Zedong and former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev “despised each other.” Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, “by contrast, make a show of exchanging hugs and birthday greetings, leading some analysts to declare a ‘strategic bromance.'"
And in a two-adversary world, Reid argues, a traditional source of American strength becomes even more valuable: the U.S. alliance system.
"By souring the Europeans on China, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, conducted with tacit Chinese support, did what years of American diplomacy could not do. President Trump, with his tariffs and threats to invade Greenland, has jeopardized this strategic gift."
"The United States will need all the help it can get in containing China and Russia. A regional division of labor would allow the United States to prioritize Asia without abandoning Europe—and, as an added benefit, reduce the need for the sort of maximal, simultaneous pressure that draws Beijing and Moscow together," Reid writes.
