The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute

The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) is an independent, non-profit think tank and consultancy firm

๐–๐ก๐ฒ ๐…๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐…๐š๐ข๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š: ๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ ๐“๐ซ๐š๐๐ž ๐š๐ฌ ๐š ๐’๐จ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐‹๐ž๐š๐ซ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐‚๐จ๐ ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐’๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆInformal cross-border tr...
07/05/2026

๐–๐ก๐ฒ ๐…๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐œ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐…๐š๐ข๐ฅ ๐ข๐ง ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š: ๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ฅ ๐“๐ซ๐š๐๐ž ๐š๐ฌ ๐š ๐’๐จ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐‹๐ž๐š๐ซ๐ง๐ž๐ ๐‚๐จ๐ ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐’๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ž๐ฆ

Informal cross-border trade remains the dominant mode of exchange in many African border corridors despite sustained policy efforts to promote formalisation through regulatory simplification, infrastructure investment, and regional trade agreements. Conventional explanations attribute this persistence to high compliance costs, weak administrative capacity, and limited enforcement of formal rules. While these factors are important, they do not fully explain why traders continue to systematically avoid formal channels even where simplified regimes and trade facilitation measures have been introduced. This paper argues that informality is better understood as a learned response to structurally unstable border environments in which enforcement variability, procedural unpredictability, discretionary decision-making, and cost uncertainty prevent the formation of reliable expectations about formal trade. In response, traders develop recurrent informal practices that, over time, consolidate into shared avoidance strategies, stabilising informality as the dominant mode of cross-border exchange and producing a self-reinforcing institutional equilibrium that policy reforms so far have failed to disrupt.

https://hespi.org/why-formalisation-policies-fail-in-africa-informal-trade-as-a-socially-learned-cognitive-system/

๐„๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐„๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐–๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ: ๐€ ๐Œ๐š๐ง๐ข๐Ÿ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐š ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ฌ๐ญ-๐‚๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐œ๐ซ๐š๐Ÿ๐ญThis paper provides a visionar...
03/03/2026

๐„๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ž๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐š๐ง๐ ๐„๐œ๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐œ ๐–๐š๐ซ๐ซ๐ข๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ: ๐€ ๐Œ๐š๐ง๐ข๐Ÿ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐š ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ๐ฌ๐ญ-๐‚๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š๐ง ๐’๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ž๐œ๐ซ๐š๐Ÿ๐ญ
This paper provides a visionary blueprint for building the institutional capacity necessary for Africaโ€™s long-term transformation. It explores how the functional principles of the Chinese โ€œengineering stateโ€ can be adapted to the African developmental context to address persistent ex*****on gaps and complex development challenges. The model focuses on building a high-performance โ€œcapability layerโ€within national, regional, and continental institutions by embedding technical talentโ€”or โ€œEconomic Warriorsโ€โ€”at the core of their structures. This approach applies systems thinking and coordinated long-term strategic planning to master cross-border projects that are essential for regional integration and for exerting geoeconomic leverage. An Africa-adapted approach combines strong national delivery units with regional centers of excellence, fosters publicโ€“private talent circulation, and leverages digital tools to enhance strategic influence. Ultimately, this framework seeks to reconcile technocratic precision with social accountability, enabling African states to become proactive architects of an inclusive and strategically decisive growth trajectory.

https://hespi.org/engineering-state-and-economic-warriors-a-manifesto-for-a-21st-century-african-statecraft/

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐š๐ซ๐š๐๐จ๐ฑ: ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ, ๐‚๐ก๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ž๐ฌ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐€๐ฅ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌThis document was presented at the Consultati...
12/01/2026

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐ˆ๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ ๐ซ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐š๐ซ๐š๐๐จ๐ฑ: ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ, ๐‚๐ก๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ž๐ง๐ ๐ž๐ฌ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐€๐ฅ๐ญ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž ๐๐š๐ญ๐ก๐ฌ
This document was presented at the Consultative Workshop on the Readiness Assessment Towards the African Customs Union and Common Market, organized by the African Union Commission (AUC), Department of Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Energy, Industry and Minerals (ETTIM) in Lusaka, Zambia, from 2 to 4 December 2025. The workshop, supported technically and financially by the European Union (EU)-Technical Assistance Facility (TAF), aimed to consult key stakeholders and initiate preparations for a forthcoming Conference on the establishment of the African Customs Union and Common Market. The workshop brought together representatives of African Union Member States, African Regional Economic Communities (RECs), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the African Exportโ€“Import Bank (Afreximbank) and the EU-TAF.

This paper presents key findings and updates an earlier study mandated by a Decision adopted on February 2022 by the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union [Assembly/AU/Dec.829(###V)], to assess Africaโ€™s readiness for the establishment of a Customs Union and Common Market, in accordance with the Abuja Treaty (1991) establishing the African Economic Community (AEC).

https://hespi.org/the-africa-integration-paradox-progress-challenges-and-alternative-paths/

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐„๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ฅ, ๐’๐จ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐†๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž (๐„๐’๐†) ๐š๐ง๐ ๐‚๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐’๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญThe Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (...
17/12/2025

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐„๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ฅ, ๐’๐จ๐œ๐ข๐š๐ฅ, ๐š๐ง๐ ๐†๐จ๐ฏ๐ž๐ซ๐ง๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž (๐„๐’๐†) ๐š๐ง๐ ๐‚๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ž ๐€๐Ÿ๐ซ๐ข๐œ๐š ๐’๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ
The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) successfully participated at the Environmental, Social, and Governance and Climate Africa Summit 2025, held in Nairobi, Kenya, from 26โ€“27 November 2025. The Summit convened leading policymakers, private sector leaders, development partners, academics, and sustainability experts to advance Africaโ€™s climate resilience, responsible investment, and sustainable finance agenda.

As Africa faces the key challenges of addressing sustainable economic development and climate change adaptation and resilience, the Summit was aimed at providing a platform to align public and private sector efforts in promoting sustainable finance and durable solutions that can embed sustainability in ESG in effective policies and decision making.

The thematic areas discussed in the first day focused on ESG and sustainability: Market size and trend in Africa, ESG sustainable Investment and Climate Finance as well as shaping the future of sustainable finance in the Continent. In the second day, the thematic areas covered navigating ESG compliance and regulatory landscape; and served as a catalyst for transforming businesses and communities towards environmental stewardship, social wellbeing and good governance.

The in-depth discussions among the participants covered ESG investment principles, the growing importance of financial markets and the relevance of integrating ESG factors in their own investment decision-making processes across their various industries and asset classes. They also addressed the challenges faced by investors, including standardization of ESG metrics, data quality issues, and measuring the impact of ESG initiatives and exploring innovative ESG investment practices such as impact investing, thematic investing, and shareholder engagement strategies. Also discussed in detail were topics and insights on the future directions of ESG investing as a way forward by incorporating regulatory developments, evolving investor preferences, and the role of technology in advancing ESG integration.

The remarks of the HESPI Participants focused on the need for augmenting adequate financing of ESG sustainability through enhancing public investments, leveraging private funding from diverse sources, and increasing domestic mobilization of assured financing from within the continentโ€™s own resources instead of outward looking. In addition, the importance of investing in ESG sustainability through strengthened prevention, preparedness and building essential infrastructure for climate adaptation and protection was underscored, instead of reactive ex-post financing of disasters.

https://hespi.org/the-environmental-social-and-governance-esg-and-climate-africa-summit/

๐‡๐„๐’๐๐ˆ ๐๐จ๐š๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ซ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐‡๐ฒ๐›๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐Œ๐ž๐ž๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐  The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) held its December 2025 Boa...
08/12/2025

๐‡๐„๐’๐๐ˆ ๐๐จ๐š๐ซ๐ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐ƒ๐ข๐ซ๐ž๐œ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฌ ๐‡๐ฒ๐›๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐Œ๐ž๐ž๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ 

The Horn Economic and Social Policy Institute (HESPI) held its December 2025 Board of Directors meeting on December 05, 2025 in Addis Ababa to review institutional achievements during 2025 and formally approve the Headquarters 2024 audited report, the 2025 program implementation report, and the strategic work plan for 2026.

During the meeting, the Board welcomed the incoming Chairperson H.E. Mr. Sufia Ahmed and acknowledged the contribution of the outgoing Chair. Presentations were delivered by senior Management Members covering HESPI 2025 key program plans including climate resilience, public financial management, regional integration work of both the Headquarters and Nairobi Office, and newly launched resource mobilization initiatives.

The Board commended ongoing institutional growth, strategic partnerships and increased engagement in climate adaptation, economic governance, and regional integration. The meeting concluded with endorsement of planned activities for 2026 and appreciation to management and staff for consistent delivery and institutional strengthening.

HESPI will continue implementing its strategic plan with emphasis on climate adaptation, regional economic governance, and financial inclusion across the IGAD region and beyond.

https://hespi.org/

Connecting the Souths: Identifying Strategic Sectors for Africaโ€“Latin America Trade, industrial and Value Chain Cooperat...
13/11/2025

Connecting the Souths: Identifying Strategic Sectors for Africaโ€“Latin America Trade, industrial and Value Chain Cooperation

Amidst rising geopolitical uncertainty and tensions, Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) possess significant, yet untapped potential for developing resilient Southโ€“South value chains. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of their business environments and identifies structural and regulatory challenges to cross-continental industrial collaboration. Sectors with the greatest complementaritiesโ€”including agri-food, light manufacturing (such as textiles and apparel), digital services, and logisticsโ€”are highlighted as priorities for cooperation. Based on this analysis, the paper proposes a pragmatic, phased, corridor-focused strategy to operationalize Southโ€“South value-chain integration. Key elements of this roadmap include the establishment of strategic pilot initiatives, the adoption of Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) to harmonize certification, testing and inspection procedures, the deployment of blended-finance instruments to de-risk joint investments, and the integration of informal economic actors to ensure inclusivity. This approach aims to translate identified complementarities into sustainable, institutionalized value chains that strengthen interregional trade and economic resilience.

https://hespi.org/connecting-the-souths-identifying-strategic-sectors-for-africa-latin-america-trade-industrial-and-value-chain-cooperation/

Climate Change Context Analysis Summary Report of the IGAD RegionThis review set out to chart the context of the climate...
15/09/2025

Climate Change Context Analysis Summary Report of the IGAD Region

This review set out to chart the context of the climate landscape across the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) regionโ€”identifying hotspots of vulnerability, uncovering emerging threats, and probing policy and institutional architectures responsible for responding to them. Constructed from a rich weave of secondary data sources, it consolidates evidence and analysis to complete its core mandates: diagnosing climate risks and assessing the mechanisms that attempt to adapt their impacts.

The IGAD member countries Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda are facing rising climate stresses caused by rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and rising extreme events. The nearly 70% of land which is semi-arid and arid and hence rain-fed agriculture- and pastoralism-based and hence very vulnerable to drought, flooding, heatwaves, and glacial melting in upland areas. Seas are exposing coast states to sea-level rise and salinity intrusion, and inland communities to desertification and resource degradation. These stresses exacerbate existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities, water scarcity, food insecurity, poverty, and inequality, leading to displacement and resource conflict in transboundary basins.

https://hespi.org/climate-change-context-analysis-summary-report-of-the-igad-region/

The Split Personality of Protectionism: Comparative Analysis and Policy Recommendations for its Application in Emerging ...
15/09/2025

The Split Personality of Protectionism: Comparative Analysis and Policy Recommendations for its Application in Emerging and Industrialized Economies

Protectionism, defined as the deliberate intervention of the State in trade with the purpose of giving domestic producers an advantage over foreign competitors, remains a key feature of global trade policy. Its recent resurgence, particularly in the U.S., reflects a broader rethinking of liberal trade norms among advanced economies. While free trade remains the dominant narrative, both emerging and industrialized countries continue to adopt protectionist measures, albeit for different reasons. Emerging economies often use them to support industrialization and job creation, whereas advanced economies deploy them to defend strategic sectors or respond to geopolitical and technological shifts. This paper compares the rationales, targets, and tools of protectionism across these contexts, drawing on cases from South Korea, Japan, the U.S., and African nations, and concludes with policy recommendations for more effective and strategic implementation.

https://hespi.org/the-split-personality-of-protectionism-comparative-analysis-and-policy-recommendations-for-its-application-in-emerging-and-industrialized-economies/

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