09/09/2026
Let’s warm up for the next El Niño
What we know, what we don’t know and what can be done.
The graph in the image shows the entire recorded sea surface temperature anomalies and highlights 1997, 2015 and 2026, suggesting it might get worse than 1997 and 2015. We know what happened in the Maldives after those strong El Niños peaked around december in the Pacific Ocean: around march to may 1998 and 2016 sea surface temparatures spiked leading to massive coral mortality in reefs from 0 to 15 m. If we assume repeating mechanisms for this year’s El Niño, then between march and may 2027 we will have to witness another mass bleaching event in the Maldives.
Nevertheless, nobody knows exactly if this will be the case, but if you trust the data, then it might get bad.
What’s really astonishing if you dig deeper into the data, is the contributing fact that the baseline temperature has already shifted within the last 30 years. 1998 the baseline was 0,4 degrees lower than today. Sounds not much? Ask a coral with a very sensitive bleaching threshold where this adds to a seasonal spike and El Niño anomalies.
Thankfully, a lot has been done in the past 30 years in terms of scientific progress. We know more about corals, growth timelines, temperature thresholds, genetics and heat resistence. In addition, many organisations fought locally to bring back corals after the bleaching events. Fragment by fragment they helped to build new colonies that ultimately contributed to what we see in many places around the Maldives today: beautiful and diverse coral reefs.
Sadly, the Maldives is in a phase of mad geo engineering, transforming every lagoon with a reef into an island for commercial exploitation. This ongoing process not only covers existing coral reefs, but also damages entire areas due to sedimentation during the process (and the expected ongoing dredging needed to refill these crumbling Temu islands) plus interfering with century old current and flow patterns around the lagoons and reefs. Worth to mention of course that in the aftermath, the new island’s hotel is a burden for the environment itself, putting pressure on the eco system with waste water, rubbish, fishing, boat traffic and touristical exploitation.
What can be done?
Maybe some of these ideas sound a bit far fetched from reality or despair driven. But let’s be honest: any effort is better than no effort. Let’s pretend we expect a very bad event with very high mortality in shallow areas from 0 to 15 meters. After 2 months temperatures sink below bleaching thresholds and a phase of recovery might start.
Data. Not numbers, but experience. The scattered geographic of the Maldives requires a very local analysis. You like snorkelling? Then you know your reef very well. You are a dive instructor? You know exactly where to find specific coral reefs. You probably witnessed the development of „your“ reef through the years. You know where the coral regrew the fastest after the last bleaching. You know where the fast growing species live. You know where the slow growing species live. You know where currents bring cooler waters from the deep with each tide or during the monsoon shifts. These might be natural cool spots that could play a role as rescue sites. Maybe you know certain colonies that magically survived heat stress in the past — this might be a „super coral“ that could help kickstart an entire colony if it can be saved.
All this might be super valuable in order to understand „your“ reef(s).
Exchange data. This knowledge is very local. But maybe in your neighbourhood you have a marine lab, researchers, coral gardeners or other individuals or organisations in the ocean conservation community that might be highly interested in your experience — your „super coral“ for example. So reach out for exchange and combine efforts for more success.
Stress reduction. If a bleaching occurs, any additional stress should be eliminated. Same for the time after when regrowth needs maximum environmental stability. Thinking of local and resort islands this could be: controlled waste water management, reduction of chemical stressors like detergents or anything that would kill coral polyps or support algae growth. Of course, any sedimentation or other mechanical stress should be ruled out — no dredging, no building, no anchoring, no harbour cleaning etc. If you observe biological stressors, like crown of thorn starfish, these should be drastically eliminated. In contrast, herbivorous fish that feed on algae should be protected at all cost (parrotfish, surgeonfish …)
Survival sites. A high tech bleaching response plan or coral rescue protocol would suggest land based tanks where living fragments can survive in regulated temperatures (‚ex-situ emergency nurseries‘). They could be relocated back into the reef in order to help kickstart new colonies. These tanks, however, are expensive to aquire and require ongoing and experienced maintenance. Maldives is not a singular coastline but a thousand reefs over a thousand kilometers. But: maybe you know of such tanks in your region and surely they are interested in your experience regarding possible heat resilient coral colonies. Maybe a resort in your neighbourhood wants to start a rescue plan and needs your input. Or maybe they want to partner up with you and fund your own plan. Try to get in touch.
Going deep. If not on land, deeper waters could be just the 0.5 degrees cooler that make the decisive difference. Maybe you know a certain place where fragments or singular colonies could be relocated to. If today a certain area is 2 degrees celsius cooler in 15 m depth than the surface, it could be a valid refuge, provided that there is enough light and good water exchange. You could combine forces with divers and engineers to develop a fragment frame or rack that could be lowered and recovered afterwards.
Another contributing factor for sea surface temperatures is sunlight. It will not be possible to cover larger areas with any kind of reflecting matter due to physical limitations and mechnical stressors in the sea. (Although a normal beach clean up would provide several square meters of floating plastic waste … ) But thinking about certain areas, maybe parking the fleet of unused boats right above them, or tieing together a fleet of paddle boards … could be one of those desperate ideas that could make the crucial difference.
Ultimately, we encourage resort islands, all relying on the living coral reefs for the physical protection of their assets against erosion on the one hand, and happy clients wanting to see living corals on the other hand, to team up with marine biologists and conservation organisations to fund their own local program to counter the effects of a possible bleaching event in 2027.
Feel free to add comments or suggestions.
jb
