19/10/2026
New ZOiS Report on trade between Moldova and the breakaway region of Transnistria out now!
🔗 https://www.zois-berlin.de/en/publications/zois-report/economic-ties-across-the-river-nistru-trade-and-prospects-for-conflict-transformation-in-moldova-and-transnistria
Based on a survey among 1,161 businesses, researchers Julia Langbein, Sabine von Löwis, Ivaylo Dinev and Maxim Slav investigated links between political views and the market orientation of businesses on both sides of the de facto border and asked whether trade between the regions might contribute to conflict resolution.
A quick overview:
On both sides, economic trade is focussed on domestic markets. Trade across the Nistru River plays a subordinate role and is more important for businesses in Transnistria. European markets are playing a growing role.
Traders tend to be very pragmatic when it comes to geopolitical implications:
Transnistrian businesses that trade with Moldovan businesses on the right bank of the Nistru tend to favour greater integration with the EU. Moldovan businesses on the right bank engaged in cross-Nistru trade are more likely to support economic engagement with both the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union.
In conflict resolution, trade links are often used as one of many so-called confidence-building measures. In the case of Transnistria, trade relations with Moldova do not automatically go hand in hand with greater support for political integration, the authors find. However, they do result in mutual trust, which could be leveraged to achieve more stability.