12/10/2026
Sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, where El Niño develops, rose from an average 1.6 °C above normal in June to +2.5 °C in August 2026. For October through December, the seasonal average is forecast to reach 3.7°C above normal.
This is the highest since observations began and is stronger than the previous record of + 2.6 °C in November 2015-January 2016.
El Niño releases heat that the ocean has been storing beneath the surface. This explains why strong El Niño events become some of the hottest years on record.
The Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean also contribute to the seasonal outlook. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole that can strongly influence rainfall around the Indian Ocean is expected to peak in October. Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic basin are forecast to remain above normal.
Read more in the latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update: https://bit.ly/4hFr1XD