02/11/2026
The Miramichi River Atlantic salmon are experiencing a severe decline.
Over the past 15 years, annual returns to both the northwest and southwest branches have dropped from about 50,000 to fewer than 10,000 in each of the past three years. Without urgent intervention, Atlantic salmon could disappear from this iconic New Brunswick river.
This dramatic drop coincides with the explosive growth of the striped bass population of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). In the late 1990s, fewer than 5,000 bass spawners remained, prompting the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) to ban retention in all striped bass fisheries. The measure worked. With fishing pressure removed and natural mortality declining, despite commercial and recreational bass fisheries having been gradually reintroduced, the striped bass population continues to rebound, reaching over 500,000 spawners in two of the last three years.
DFO still attributes the Miramichi salmon collapse to natural environmental changes unrelated to bass numbers, but the link between the salmon decline and striped bass is clear. The primary striped bass spawning area is the Northwest Miramichi estuary, through which juvenile salmon (smolts) must travel each spring to reach the ocean. This overlap creates intense predation pressure on smolts. In the 2000s, estuarine smolt mortality averaged about 40 per cent. In 2023, with the bass population at 585,000, a study found that 70 per cent of tagged smolts in the Miramichi estuary were consumed by striped bass, with another 25 per cent lost to other predators – a staggering 95 per cent mortality rate. If this continues, extinction of Miramichi salmon is inevitable.
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DFO has set a lower “at risk” population threshold (Limit Reference Point or LRP) for striped bass at 330,000 spawners, which they consider “more than sufficient” to protect the species. However, a 2019 DFO policy also requires co-management when a predator is causing “serious harm” to a prey species. A 2022 DFO report analyzing smolt tagging data from 2003 to 2016 found a strong correlation between bass abundance and smolt mortality on the northwest Miramichi, but not on the southwest branch. This limited finding seems to have been used by DFO to justify continued separate striped bass and salmon management, and retention of the enormous 330,000 bass LRP. However, if available data from 2017 to 2021 were included, the conclusion would be that smolt mortality rates are directly related to the number of spawning bass which, under the predator/prey policy, should be regulated to protect salmon.
Population modelling indicates reducing annual bass spawners to about 100,000 would increase Miramichi smolt survival in the estuary from about five per cent to approximately 50 per cent, a rate that allows for salmon sustainability. The 2022 DFO report also notes this bass abundance level is associated with healthy populations of other fish species such as rainbow smelt. However, DFO never conducted the large-scale ecosystem study it proposed to examine these broader impacts.
Reducing striped bass numbers will be challenging. The commercial bass fishery run by Natoaganeg (Eel Ground) First Nation is limited by DFO-imposed quotas. Even harvesting the current 175,000 bass allocation may not reduce the population, as large numbers of young bass are entering the fishery annually. At least double the current bass harvest, combined with a strong recreational bass retention fishery, is needed for Miramichi salmon to have sustainable returns.
Meanwhile, striped bass have expanded their range into upstream salmon habitats of both the Miramichi and Restigouche rivers, there preying on juvenile salmon. Bass have also reduced smelt populations and are consuming juvenile lobsters in the Gulf.
The Miramichi River provides most of the Atlantic salmon production capacity for the Cape Breton/sGSL river assemblage. Due to the Miramichi salmon’s sharp decline, the collective salmon population of these rivers has been preliminarily assessed as “endangered,” even though some rivers still have healthy runs. If this status is confirmed under the Species at Risk Act, the associated closing of salmon fisheries would devastate communities, traditions, and conservation efforts built over generations.
Alternatively, science-based management of striped bass, along with support for salmon hatchery and habitat programs, can restore ecosystem balance. This would revive biodiversity while still allowing striped bass to support valuable fisheries.
The science is clear. The policy tools exist. But decisive action is needed.
John Bagnall is the fisheries and licensing chair of the NB Salmon Council (NBSC), Butch Dalton is president of the NBSC, and Kevin Davidson is communication chair for NBSC.
