Observer Research Foundation America

06/10/2026

Since late 2024, India and have inched back towards economic, political, and social normalization.

But the India-China relationship remains structurally fraught and rests on a precarious foundation.

Despite a political thaw with China, Dhruva Jaishankar and Ammar Nainar argue that India will double-down on efforts to indigenize its own industrial capabilities while seeking new markets and diverse sources:

"India-China economic relations are equally challenging, despite the large volume of bilateral goods trade. India confronts a $112 billion deficit with China and Indian firms that are competitive in most international markets continue to face barriers there. Beijing still places restrictions on outbound investment to India and has at times delayed the export of items such as tunnel-boring equipment, fertilizers, and . Some Chinese personnel have been prevented recently from traveling to India as part of efforts involving supply chain diversification (a so-called “China+1” strategy). China’s investment presence in Indian start-ups has also dwindled relative to the pre-2020 period.

For its part, India continues to ban Chinese apps and Chinese companies from some critical infrastructure. India has also not signed up to the China-led World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). In March 2026, India slightly diluted investment restrictions it imposed in April 2020, enabling automatic approvals for investments with up to 10% of Chinese ownership and faster decisions in select sectors like capital goods, electronics, and polysilicon wafers."

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By Dhruva Jaishankar and Ammar Nainar Despite a political thaw with China, India will double-down on efforts to indigenize its own industrial capabilities in certain sectors, while seeking new markets for exports, new defense and technology partners, and new and diverse sources for raw materials, i

02/10/2026

Brazil’s presidential election is arguably the most consequential election in this year, as growing competition over , , , and supply chains increases the country’s strategic importance.

Ahead of Sunday’s first round, André Nicola explains how the election could shape Brazil’s relations with , , and the wider world:

"The election comes amid heightened tensions between Brasília and Washington over , sovereignty, and the U.S. role in Brazilian affairs. In July, the Brazilian government accused the administration in the United States of attempting to interfere in the election, leading to the revocation of visas for two U.S. government officials. That episode, together with U.S. on Brazilian goods, has strained relations ahead of the vote."

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By Andre Nicola The outcome of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election will have massive implications for its domestic policies and will also shape how Brazil engages with partners in Washington, Beijing, and the rest of the world.

01/10/2026

🌍 The successes and failures of transitions in India, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia ( +Indonesia) carry global weight.

Check out our interactive dashboard that brings everything you need to know about +Indonesia transitions together in 1️⃣ place 👉 https://bit.ly/3UBsncT

30/09/2026

What is "clean trade"?

As extends beyond electricity into transport, manufacturing, , and chemicals, the share of world untouched by clean-energy accounting is likely to shrink.

Piyush Verma outlines how goes beyond trade in clean-energy technologies in a new Observer Research Foundation America:

🔩 Hardware: Like other manufactured goods, solar modules, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles, electrolyzers, heat pumps, and grid equipment are the most visible part of the clean economy and are shaped by , subsidies, production costs, domestic-content rules, and industrial policy.

🪨 Minerals and materials: What brings these commodities into the discussion is their position in low-carbon supply chains, which is why the geography of refining can matter as much as the location of the ore.

⚡ Energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, biofuels, sustainable aviation fuel, and synthetic fuels are not traded in the same way.

🧱 Industrial goods: Steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, and chemicals are rarely called clean-energy goods, yet they now sit near the center of the debates around energy transitions. Clean trade here is less about what countries trade than about how the goods they already trade are produced.

✅ Attributes and verification: Guarantees of origin, renewable energy certificates, emissions accounting, and product-level carbon data increasingly decide whether a product can credibly be called lower-carbon. What crosses the border is a claim about production, and the question is whether it will be believed.

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By Piyush Verma As decarbonization extends beyond electricity into transport, manufacturing, steel, and chemicals, the share of world trade untouched by clean energy accounting is likely to shrink. So the useful question is not where clean trade begins and ends.

28/09/2026

When it comes to , and utilities are among the most heavily targeted sectors of critical infrastructure — and the threats are only intensifying.

The sector already struggles to defend its assets against today’s threats, let alone tomorrow’s -enabled ones.

Medha Prasanna explains why the sector will meet quantum as a threat to its infrastructure well before it confronts quantum as a meaningful demand on the grid:

"Early policy debates treated quantum as the energy sector’s next , a new source of load driven by cryogenic cooling and the need for highly stable power. But rapid advances in quantum hardware have brought forward Q-Day, the point at which a quantum computer can break the public-key cryptography securing most digital systems, which is now considered plausible by 2030. Governments are now setting deadlines to migrate to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), algorithms designed to withstand quantum-enabled attacks. The United States has ordered its most sensitive federal systems to switch to PQC encryption by the end of 2030. The European Union has set the same date for high-risk systems, which includes energy systems under its cybersecurity law. India’s National Quantum Mission has proposed the most ambitious target of the three, recommending that critical sectors, including power, migrate by 2029. Only the U.S. deadline is binding, and it covers federal systems, not the privately owned utilities that run most of the American grid. The EU and Indian timelines are only recommendations. None yet binds the companies that operate the grid."

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By Medha Prasanna As countries race to connect renewable generation, expand transmission, and meet surging demand from data centers, electricity grids are being built at unprecedented speeds. Building quantum-safe cryptography while equipment is being designed and procured is far easier than retrof

25/09/2026

🎧 LISTEN NOW: Season 2 Episode #21 🎧

In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo examine growing concerns around safety, from recent breaches to the risks of recursive self-improvement and debates over regulating frontier AI models. They also cover the newly signed U.S.-Denmark-Greenland defense agreement and the EU’s proposal to make its first “associate member” as the transatlantic landscape continues to shift. Finally, they turn to the recent summit in New Delhi and and ’s meeting in Washington this week, with , , , and among the issues in focus.

Around the World with Dhruva Jaishankar and Rachel Rizzo premieres on Fridays, tune in on:

▶️ YouTube: https://bit.ly/4hmSeyl

🎙️ Spotify: https://bit.ly/4yXUgL4

🔉 Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/4d3zy3U

🌐 ORF America website: https://bit.ly/4AuIppm

In this week’s episode of Around the World, hosts Dhruva Jaishankar...

22/09/2026

The questions raised by are different from those raised by , and the approaches now being developed for large and data center loads may not map neatly onto the next generation of computing.

Last week, we convened an breakfast on the emerging intersection of AI, quantum computing, and energy infrastructure.

Some key takeaways ⬇️

🔌 Quantum is a relatively rigid energy consumer, arriving just as the grid is placing greater value on flexibility from large users.

⚠️ The grid is becoming a gatekeeper to AI at scale and potentially a new source of digital inequality.

🔐 Quantum becomes an energy security issue before it becomes a power-demand issue.

⛓️‍💥 Supply chain exposure is a critical bottleneck alongside the grid, and AI and quantum are constrained by different inputs.

Read more 👉 https://bit.ly/4cXFo6P

20/09/2026

As kicks off, one theme is clear: the global transition is no longer just about emissions but also industry, , , and security.

Revisit our analysis on how these forces are reshaping the energy transition and creating new opportunities for growth and cooperation👇

⛓️‍💥 A fragmented transition — There is no single global energy transition. Countries are moving at different speeds and on different terms, shaping who will benefit from the new energy economy: https://bit.ly/4wzzYH8

⚙️ Industry goes green — As industrial corridors get redrawn, green iron is not only a climate issue but also an energy security and competitiveness question: https://bit.ly/4g6r3XQ

🌎 The need for South-South cooperation — +Indonesia are more than recipients of the energy transition — they anchor it: https://bit.ly/3S6uFQn

🤖 Powering AI — is both a major source of new electricity demand and a tool for grid optimization, forecasting, resilience, and renewable integration: https://bit.ly/4xxNgU6

For more on energy and climate 👉 https://bit.ly/3xR5VhA

18/09/2026

What came out of the latest in India?

In a new Observer Research Foundation America Comment, Anit Mukherjee analyzes the New Delhi Declaration and its implications for economic management and development:

📦 Global 👉 Diversifying trade will require long-term investment and transfers to support modern manufacturing and supply chain integration.

💳 Cross-Border Payments 👉 A -wide digital payment network could make national payment systems interoperable and reduce transaction costs, but technical challenges remain.

🏦 International Financial Institutions 👉 Expanding membership in the BRICS New Development Bank could strengthen its role in development lending to the and support reform of multilateral financial systems.

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By Anit Mukherjee In the 20 years since BRICS was formed as a loose agglomeration of developing countries, the New Delhi Summit demonstrated that its value lay in providing a space for some overlapping approaches to economic management and development. The challenge is one of coordination, reconcil

18/09/2026

As aid from the United States, Europe, and other traditional donors becomes more limited and less predictable, the is being forced to reevaluate its approach to external assistance.

In a new background paper for Observer Research Foundation America, Anit Mukherjee and Caroline Arkalji examine how developing countries can increase their bargaining power to attract new finance and investment.

Some key takeaways👇

📉 Bilateral aid is becoming increasingly transactional and determined by geopolitical competition.

🌐 Geopolitical competition allows countries from the to use their strategic assets as bargaining power for greater aid and investment.

🚢 Developing countries with large domestic or regional markets, natural resources such as and , and strategic locations along shipping lanes, connectivity corridors and geopolitical fault lines can have greater leverage than others.

🔄 Regional blocs will help align strategies, institutions, fiscal management, and collective bargaining to secure greater assistance.

Learn more:

Background Paper No. 39 By Anit Mukherjee and Caroline Arkalji