21/07/2020
Are death rates from cancer rising?
Bangla and English Translate
With an increase in global cancer deaths from 5.7 to 9.6 million since 1990 (an increase of 68 percent), and similar trends in the number of absolute deaths across most countries, it may seem reasonable to assume that cancer death rates are on the rise. But is this really the case?
Whilst a crucial metric of total disease burden and mortality, the absolute number of deaths has two key caveats: it fails to account for changes in population size and age structure. As we have explored above, the majority of cancer deaths occur in those aged over 50 years old; this means we should expect the total number of cancer deaths to increase as a population ages. The drivers of rising life expectancy, aging populations, and population growth can compound to give a skewed perception of frequency.
A more useful metric in this regard is the age-standardized death rate. This metric corrects for the effects of changing age distributions by normalising to a fixed reference population structure (assumed the same across countries and with time), and for differences in population size by reporting as the number of deaths per 100,000 individuals.3 The age-standardized death rate from all cancer types are shown in the visualisation below. This data can be explored through time using the âplayâ button at the bottom of the chart, and national time-series can be viewed by clicking on a respective country.
In 2017, we see that most countries have death rates of 50 to 150 deaths per 100,000 individuals. On average, higher-income countries tend to fall towards the upper band of this range; across North America, Europe, and Australasia, rates are typically close to 150 per 100,000. This is also true across a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Rates across Latin America, Asia, and some parts of Africa are on average lower (50-125 per 100,000).
If we use the timeline to see how death rates have changed since 1990 we see that rates have fallen significantly across a large share of countries. In the United States and Canada, rates have fallen from over 180 in 1990 to below 150 per 100,000; in the 1990s, Russia peaked at over 180 per 100,000 and has since fallen below 130; and China has seen a similar decline since 1990. This is not true everywhere: rates have risen across some countries, including South Africa and India. Age-specific death rates, in comparison to all age and age-standardized rates can be explored here.
The overall global trend nonetheless shows an often counter-intuitive finding: despite increasing numbers of cancer deaths, individual death rates are falling. In 1990, 143 people out of every 100,000 globally died from cancer â by 2017 this had fallen to 121 per 100,000.
For the purposes of assessing the total incidence of cancer, in the chart above we grouped all cancer types together to look at overall trends. However, death rates and progress in reducing mortality incidence varies across the many forms of cancer. In the chart below we see the individual age-standardized death rates across cancer types. This is again measured as the number of deaths per 100,000 individuals.
As we would expect from the leading cause of cancer deaths, rates in tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer are highest globally at 24 per 100,000. This has fallen slightly from approximately 26 per 100,000 in 1990, with even greater declines in some countries (in the US, rates have fallen from 47 to 34 per 100,000).
In some cases we have seen dramatic declines over the last few decades. The most notable is stomach cancer, for which death rates have fallen by more than 40 percent from 19 to 11 per 100,000. Rates in esophageal and cervical cancer have also both dropped by around one-third since 1990.
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āύā§āĻŦā§āώāĻŖ āĻāϰāĻž āϝā§āϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāϰā§āĨ¤ āϤāĻŦā§āĻ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻā§āϰāĻŋāĻ āĻŦā§āĻļā§āĻŦāĻŋāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻŖāϤāĻž āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧāĻļāĻ āϏā§āĻŦ-āϏā§āĻŦāĻā§āĻāĻžāϤ āϏāύā§āϧāĻžāύ āĻāϰā§: āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻā§āϰāĻŽā§āĻŦā§āĻ āĻĒā§āĻĨāĻ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ āĻĒāĻžāĻā§āĻā§āĨ¤ ⧧⧝⧝ā§Ļ āϏāĻžāϞā§, āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻĒā§ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ ā§§ā§Ļā§Ļ,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ āĻāύā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠⧧ā§Ēā§Š āĻāύ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰ⧠āĻāĻā§āϰāĻžāύā§āϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧā§ āĻŽāĻžāϰāĻž āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞā§āύ - ⧍ā§Ļā§§ā§Š āϏāĻžāϞā§āϰ āĻŽāϧā§āϝ⧠āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŽā§ āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāϞ ā§§ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ āϏāĻžāϞ⧠āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ ⧧⧍⧧ āĻāĨ¤ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻŽā§āĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻā§āĻĒāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻŽā§āϞā§āϝāĻžāϝāĻŧāύā§āϰ āĻāĻĻā§āĻĻā§āĻļā§āϝā§, āĻāĻĒāϰā§āϰ āĻāĻžāϰā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻā§āϰāĻŋāĻ āĻĒā§āϰāĻŦāĻŖāϤāĻžāĻā§āϞāĻŋ āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āϏāĻŽāϏā§āϤ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āϧāϰāĻŖā§āϰ āĻā§āώā§āĻ ā§āĻā§āĻā§āϤ āĻāϰā§āĻāĻŋāĨ¤ āϝāĻžāĻāĻšā§āĻ, āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āĻāĻāύāĻž āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ⧠āĻ
āĻā§āϰāĻāϤāĻŋ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āϧāϰāĻŖā§āϰ āĻā§āĻĄāĻŧā§ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŦāϰā§āϤāĻŋāϤ āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āύā§āĻā§āϰ āĻāĻžāϰā§āĻā§ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻāĻŋāύā§āύ āϧāϰāĻŖā§āϰ āĻĒā§āĻĨāĻ āĻŦāϝāĻŧāϏ-āĻŽāĻžāύāĻ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻĒāĻžāĻāĨ¤ āĻāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŦāĻžāϰ 100,000 āĻŦā§āϝāĻā§āϤāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āϏāĻāĻā§āϝāĻž āĻšāĻŋāϏāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻĒāϰāĻŋāĻŽāĻžāĻĒ āĻāϰāĻž āĻšāϝāĻŧāĨ¤ āϝā§āĻŽāύāĻāĻŋ āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāĻžāϧāĻŋāĻ āĻāĻžāϰāĻŖ āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻāĻļāĻž āĻāϰāĻŦ, āĻā§āϰā§āϝāĻžāĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϞ, āĻŦā§āϰā§āĻā§āĻāĻžāϏ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻĢā§āϏāĻĢā§āϏā§āϰ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻŦāĻŋāĻļā§āĻŦāĻŦā§āϝāĻžāĻĒā§ āϏāϰā§āĻŦā§āĻā§āĻ 100,000 āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ 24 āĻ āϰāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ per āĻāĻāĻŋ 1990 āϏāĻžāϞ⧠100,000 āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ āĻĒā§āϰāĻžāϝāĻŧ 26 āĻĨā§āĻā§ āϏāĻžāĻŽāĻžāύā§āϝ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻā§, āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻĻā§āĻļā§ āĻāϰāĻ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ (āĻŽāĻžāϰā§āĻāĻŋāύ āϝā§āĻā§āϤāϰāĻžāώā§āĻā§āϰā§, āĻšāĻžāϰ 100,000 āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋ 47 āĻĨā§āĻā§ 34 āĻ āĻĻāĻžāĻāĻĄāĻŧāĻŋāϝāĻŧā§āĻā§)āĨ¤ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻāĻŋāĻā§ āĻā§āώā§āϤā§āϰ⧠āĻāĻŽāϰāĻž āĻāϤ āĻāϝāĻŧā§āĻ āĻĻāĻļāĻ āϧāϰ⧠āύāĻžāĻāĻā§āϝāĻŧ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ āĻĻā§āĻāϤ⧠āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻāĻŋāĨ¤ āϏāϰā§āĻŦāĻžāϧāĻŋāĻ āĻāϞā§āϞā§āĻāϝā§āĻā§āϝāĻāĻžāĻŦā§ āĻĒā§āĻ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰ, āϝāĻžāϰ āĻāύā§āϝ āĻŽā§āϤā§āϝā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰ āĻšā§āϰāĻžāϏ āĻĒā§āϝāĻŧā§āĻā§ ā§Ēā§Ļ āĻļāϤāĻžāĻāĻļā§āϰāĻ āĻŦā§āĻļāĻŋ āĻāĻŽā§āĻ⧠⧧⧝ā§Ļā§Ļ āĻĨā§āĻā§ ā§§ā§§,ā§Ļā§Ļā§Ļ āĻĒā§āϰāϤāĻŋāĨ¤ 1990 āĻĨā§āĻā§ āĻā§āϝāĻžāϏā§āĻĢā§āĻāĻŋāϝāĻŧāĻžāϞ āĻāĻŦāĻ āĻāϰāĻžāϝāĻŧā§ āĻā§āϝāĻžāύā§āϏāĻžāϰā§āϰ āĻšāĻžāϰāĻ āĻāĻ-āϤā§āϤā§āϝāĻŧāĻžāĻāĻļ āĻāĻŽā§āĻā§āĨ¤