01/06/2026
There is no denying this El Niño will be SIGNIFICANT, and possibly one of the strongest on record but in saying that the extent of impacts for Australia is still up for debate.
✅Yes, El Niño is developing right now in the Pacific Ocean (where sea temperatures rise above average in the black box SE of Hawaii) and this is a normal cycle that occurs every few years - last one was in 2023.
✅Yes, the El Niño this year is likely to be very strong, potentially even record breaking with forecast anomalies as strong as 2.5-3.5℃ above average (the record is about 2.2℃).
✅Yes, El Niño TYPICALLY brings dry weather to Australia's southeast during winter/spring (all ENSO phases are different, and past happenings are no indicator to future impacts).
👇But this year looks very different because typically during El Niño you see much warmer water in the eastern Pacific (near the Americas) with cooler water pooling around Australia, thanks to a breakdown in trade winds known as the Walker Circulation.
The difference this year is that tongue of very warm water extending down the NSW/southern QLD coastline, which has already helped mitigate the onset of dry thanks to this developing El Niño and should continue to bring healthy rainfall through the winter months, potentially even into Spring/early Summer if current modeling verifies.
A great example of this is the MONTH of constant rainfall seen along the northeast NSW/southeast QLD coastlines starting around ANZAC day and only easing off a few days ago, with many areas seeing as much as 200% of their average rainfall from prevailing showers.
This is likely going to be a trend going into 2026's winter, with most of the east coast (especially NORTH QLD) set to see average/above average rainfall thanks to much warmer water pooling close to the coastline.
Long range rainfall projections suggest the likely hardest hit areas will be those inland (key growing regions in Victoria, southern and western NSW, South Australia and also southwestern WA) will see the biggest drop in rainfall accumulations compared to average, thanks to these areas being further away from the coast and that mitigating warm water offshore.
👇This means that whilst most of AUSTRALIA will see lower rain this winter, most of AUSTRALIANS (remember 85%+ of Aussies live on the coast) will actually see either normal, or above normal rainfall.
👇Also remember that El Niño impacts different areas at different times to La Niña (the driver we are just emerging from, where water in the equatorial pacific is COOLER and thus more rain/cyclones of Australia). El Niño typically impacts NSW/Victoria/SA/Tasmania and the ACT during the months of June-September, compared to La Niña impacting QLD/NT/northern NSW during the months of August to March. They are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.
👇It's a pretty controversial topic right now so whilst this post outlines what is generally expected by current modeling, we don't know for sure until the driver actually develops (should be in the next few weeks or so) then we will have you some ANSWERS.
~Josh.
