14/08/2025
The statistics on crime in the darling downs have also been showing this trend for many years. Yet crime continues to be over exaggerated through politicians, social media and traditional media outlets.
Per capita, crime is going down. It’s just so much more visible now that it feels like it’s getting worse.
I find this chart fascinating, and I have three main points that I believe help explain it.
The first is the obvious one; smart phones and social media means we are exposed to far more footage of crime than ever before, and seeing crime in action unavoidably triggers an emotional response that crime statistics just can't.
These aren't new crimes, many people are just seeing them for the first time.
The second factor is race.
It's an uncontroversial fact that socio-economic disadvantage makes involvement in violent crime more likely. This has always been the case.
What has changed, particularly in the UK and US, is that newer immigrants, particularly refugees, are unavoidably over represented in poorer communities, which means they are SOMETIMES over represented in certain crime statistics. Because the face of poverty has changed, the face of crime has changed as well.
It's not because black and brown people are more likely to be criminals, it's because they're more likely to be poor.
This is a benign statistical anomaly which is inevitably exploited by anyone with a predisposition to prejudice, and makes a sinister narrative very easy to reinforce with uncontextualised material. In particular, the false idea that immigration has led to crime being committed that would not have otherwise been committed.
The final factor may seem obtuse, but I think its influence is under appreciated. It relates to an observation by historian Anne Applebaum about how Russin information warfare has changed over the years.
The Soviet Union used disinformation to trick naive Westerners into believing Russia was a Communist Utopia.
Putin uses disinformation to trick naive Westerners into believing that liberal democracy has been a disaster.
The USSR wanted to convince the West that they had created a better society than us. Putin has instead focused his efforts into convincing the West that our society has devolved.
That our politicians are just as corrupt, our foreign policy is just as immoral, and our society is just as broken.
A huge part of this has been to exploit community unease around immigration and use this fear to elevate pro-Kremlin political parties throughout Europe, the UK, and US.
It is a remarkable coincidence that the AFD in Germany, the Rassemblement National in France, and the Reform Party in the UK, are all primarily anti-immigration parties that all have links to the Kremlin. Other right wing politicians such as Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, who both campaign on anti-immigration policies, also maintain curious sympathies for the Russian regime.
There is nothing innate about being anti-immigration that should make one sympathetic to Putin's regime, so the nexus is worth noting.
It is less likely that this is a coordinated conspiracy, and more likely the consequences of sustained strategic information warfare that has advanced the concept that Westen Civilisation is "collapsing" as a direct result of liberal values.
Effectively, the Kremlin creates content to inflame existing racial tensions and promote the idea of civilisational collapse because they believe the politicians who exploit these tensions will likely be more sympathetic to Putin's brand of nationalist authoritarianism.
If the public believe liberal democracy has led to a society that is more violent or less safe, perhaps the "tough love" of a benevolent dictator is a necessary evil?
It's incredibly difficult to counter this form of disinformation, because emotions of anger, dread, and despair, are powerful motivators that are not easily remedied with nuanced extrapolation of statistics.
But it's something to be conscious of. If you ever feel like the country is turning to s^*t, maybe it is... or maybe someone has an interest in making you feel that way.
