15/04/2026
This is what the coal industry newsletters won't tell you: coal transported via the rail is expected to drop by 40% by the mid 2030's!
The Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) — which operates the Hunter Valley coal chain — forecasts contracted coal volumes on the network will fall by around 40% from 2023 levels by 2034.
Lower coal volumes across the Hunter Valley coal chain are expected to push up terminal and port charges for remaining producers, making some mines planning to operate beyond 2035 (like the expanded HVO, Moolarben and the contested Mt Pleasant coal mines) less profitable, which may further reduce volumes and increase costs again — a reinforcing cycle which can accelerate decline.
We are underprepared for the potentially rapid decline in the coal industry - workforce support and re-training, investment to diversify our regions economy and the massive clean-up and land rehabilitation feat from decades worth of environmental pollution are all urgent because this work takes years.
Coal communities have powered NSW for generations. They now need planning and support that matches the scale of the change ahead.
The National Net-Zero Economic Authority and the Future Jobs & Investment Authority MUST support the export coal workforce.
The Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) — which operates the Hunter Valley coal chain — forecasts contracted coal volumes on the network will fall by around 40% from 2023 levels by 2034.
Lower coal volumes across the Hunter Valley coal chain are expected to push up terminal and port charges for remaining producers. This can make some mines less profitable, which may further reduce volumes and increase costs again — a reinforcing cycle which can accelerate decline.
The second half of the 2020s is therefore a critical period for the region - bridging peak production and long-term decline.
At present, key policy settings are not fully aligned to the scale of this change:
- The Federal Government’s Net Zero Economy Authority does not cover export coal workers.
- NSW’s Future Jobs and Investment Authority does not yet include enforceable minimum standards for worker support.
Coal communities have powered NSW for generations. They now need planning and support that matches the scale of the change ahead.