05/03/2025
Big changes to cyclone Alfred's forecast track! Here's what it means for the coast.
First, we've had a reminder today of how erratic tropical cyclone movement can be, with big wobbles in Alfred's path this afternoon.
Looking ahead, almost all model guidance has made a significant change to the forecast track. This is only partially reflected in the current BoM track, as they keep a lot of older guidance in their data to minimise rapid changes (a good idea to minimise false rapid changes most of the time, but it does mean that changes like this take a while to be reflected in the official forecast).
In short, it looks like Alfred will stall off the coast on Friday, rather than crossing, then likely move over land on Saturday. It's all due to the next upper trough approaching from the west.
This is what it means:
- things are becoming a lot less certain in the forecast track, so expect more changes
- It's most likely bad news, as Alfred will hang around for longer
- Waves: large waves will likely hang around longer into the weekend
- Storm surge: with a delayed coastal crossing, we need to wait for updated timing to assess the storm surge risk
- Wind: strong winds will likely hang around on the coast for longer, possibly for most of the weekend.
- Rain and flooding: We could get a sideswipe with heavy rain late tomorrow and Friday, but the heaviest falls, and peak of the flooding are likely around a landfall. At this stage that looks more likely into Saturday. Latest guidance brings the low a bit further north, so all catchments in SE QLD (and still for northern NSW) could be in the firing line.
Another reason to keep on top of forecasts and warnings for any more changes in coming days!
Pic: Forecast wind (950hPa.. just above the surface), showing a strong low still offshore on Friday afternoon. ACCESS G model.
