06/17/2026
Understanding Our Water Future:
SJRWMD Visits IRNA
Last month, Joy Kokjohn, Regional Water Supply Planning Coordinator with the St. Johns River Water Management District, joined IRNA's Water & Lagoon Committee to walk through where things stand with regional water supply planning for Indian River County and the broader Central Springs/East Coast (CSEC) region.
We're grateful to Joy for taking the time to share this information with our members. Water supply planning isn't the most glamorous topic, but it's one of the most consequential ones for our community's future.
A big part of what Joy covered was how the District actually figures out how much water we have — and how much we'll need. It's a more complex question than it might sound. The process combines population and growth projections, agricultural demand forecasts, and sophisticated groundwater modeling tools (including models with names like the Central Springs Model and the Southern District Density-Dependent Model) to project water demand out 20 years. That analysis then gets compared against what the aquifer can sustainably provide without harming natural systems like springs, wetlands, and rivers, the legal standard being that water use must sustain both current and future "reasonable-beneficial uses" while protecting water resources and related ecosystems.
For Indian River County specifically, the data shows total projected water demand of around 41 million gallons per day by 2050, lower than surrounding counties like Volusia (92 mgd) and Brevard (58 mgd), in part because agricultural acreage here, particularly citrus, has declined significantly and is projected to continue falling even as more people move here. One impressive piece of work Joy highlighted: the District's abandoned artesian well plugging program has capped or abandoned over 2,700 wells since 1982, saving up to 32 million gallons per day of groundwater in Indian River County alone.
The plan is updated every five years through an open public process, and the 2027 update is currently underway, with final approval expected late next year.
It's good to stay engaged with this process. The District is doing serious, science-based work, and having local advocates at the table matters.
That said, as we listened to the presentation, one thing stood out: there's still a lot we don't fully know. Groundwater modeling is sophisticated, but it carries real uncertainty, particularly around how saltwater intrusion will move as pumping increases, and how climate change will affect recharge rates and rainfall patterns over a 20-year horizon. The projections for agricultural water demand assume a continued decline in citrus acreage, but land use can shift in ways that are hard to predict. And the aquifer itself, which most of us think of as simply "our water supply," is a deeply interconnected system that we're still learning to fully understand.
That uncertainty isn't a reason for immediate alarm, but it is a reason to stay involved, ask questions, and make sure the right issues get attention as this plan develops. There are also opportunities for further study and more in-depth research into Indian River County's water supply specifically, so we can get a better grasp on what's happening here. SJRWMD has a wealth of great data, but it covers all 18 counties the District serves. Indian River is just one of them, and here the areas east of I-95 are quite different hydrologically from those to the west and to the north.
You can follow the 2027 CSEC Regional Water Supply Plan process and submit project ideas here: https://www.sjrwmd.com/water-supply/planning/csec-rwsp/
