08/26/2026
Curious about what “El Nino” means? Here’s a great explanation about past events, which means it’s just really really hard to predict.
A few days of rain chances now -> Friday before we settle back to little/no rain chances and above average heat through the first week of September.... So when is this whole El Nino thing finally going to work its magic on Texas?
If our LAST super El Nino event is any indication, it could be a while.
2015 was among the strongest El Nino events on record which did result in a very wet fall/winter for Austin, but only AFTER we racked up a 6"+ deficit of rainfall in August, September, and the first half of October. That was quickly followed up by a major flood around Halloween and additional consistent rain/storm chances through the end of the year.
Does 2026 follow the same rubric? Possibly, but it's impossible to know for sure. My main point: El Nino doesn't automatically kick in on September 1st when meteorological fall begins, but its influence will eventually be known later this fall/winter.