05/26/2026
NOAA has issued its latest forecast: 82% chance El Niño emerges between May and June this year. 96% chance it continues through this coming winter.
Read more at https://climatechangeresources.org/learn-more/science/extreme-weather/heat/el-nino/
Scientists are warning this one could be a "super" El Niño — with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially reaching 3 degrees Celsius above average. That is the level associated with the most disruptive climate events in modern history.
What does that mean in practice? Simultaneously: severe drought in some regions, catastrophic flooding in others, stronger hurricanes, crop failures, and the scrambling of weather patterns that billions of people have built their lives around.
And here is the part that should concern everyone: climate change has already pushed global temperatures to dangerous highs. Scientists warn that a super El Niño layered on top of that warming could produce "worst-case scenarios that are off the charts" — exceeding anything in recorded history.
The time to understand this is now, not when it arrives.
Read more on our El Niño page at climatechangeresources.org
https://climatechangeresources.org/learn-more/science/extreme-weather/heat/el-nino/