04/11/2026
I have spent the last few weeks going over data for the second quarter of 2026, USDA food outlook, supply chain shipping metrics (fuel cost) and weather effect on the grid.
If you have been listening to the analyst they tell us we are just one major event away form total economic collapse.
What I am seeing in the data for the next six months (Q2) is something worse for the average American and it is not even being talked about anywhere.
Our purchasing power is slowly being eroded away and most people don’t even see it.
• With the U.S. cattle herd at a 70-year low, beef prices are projected to surge nearly 10% this year.
• Supply chain disruptions are no longer isolated events; they are becoming more prevalent. Just last week Kimberly-Clark had a 1.2 million square foot distribution center burn down. Kimberly-Clark makes Scott brand and other toilet tissue.
The point isn’t that the sky is falling. The point is that the floor is slowly tilting and most people won’t notice until they’re sliding.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service released their 2026 Food Price Outlook, and the headline number looks almost comforting, overall grocery prices predicted to rise about 2.5% this year. That’s actually below the 20-year average of 2.6%. It’s an average and averages lie.
If you at category level data, the picture shows, Beef and veal prices are projected to surge 9.4% in 2026. This is due to the U.S. cattle herd is at a 70-year low right now.
Sugar and sweets prices up 6.7% and non-alcoholic beverages especially coffee up 5.2%. If you drink coffee every morning, your daily habit just got measurably more expensive. Climate-driven production problems in Brazil and Vietnam hammered coffee harvests, and those supply shocks haven’t fully worked through the system yet.
One bright note is the price of eggs. After the bird flu sent prices to over $6 a dozen earlier this year, the USDA projects egg prices could drop more than 20% as supply recovers. That price drop just brings eggs back to where they were before the crisis.
Pork is projected to get slightly cheaper, with about 0.3% decline predicted.
Fresh fruits are expected to rise by a fraction of a percentage point.
However fresh vegetables are looking at a 1.4% bump, and that number could go higher depending on precipitation patterns in California, where much of our produce grows.
Here is what I suggest people do now, prioritize protein in their food storage plan. Canned chicken, tuna, sardines, oysters, turkey, beef and pork (preferably packed in natural juices or water).
I would also suggest you stock up on coffee. Buy whole beans, vacuum seal them, and store them in a cool, dark place. A 20% price increase on something you consume daily adds up fast over six months. Coffee is also an excellent barter item.
With sugar at 6.7% projected increases, basic baking supplies are going to feel the pinch. Sugar stores almost indefinitely when kept dry, so there’s zero downside to buying an extra 25-pound bag now.
Medications.
If you or anyone in your household takes prescription medications, talk to your doctor about getting a 90-day supply instead of 30. Some insurance plans allow this with a mail-order pharmacy, and it gives you a critical buffer against pharmacy supply disruptions. I know someone who ran out of blood pressure medication during a supply disruption in 2022. It took her two weeks to get a refill. That’s not a prep scenario it’s a real thing that happened.
Over The Counter essentials.
Pain relievers, allergy medications, cold and flu supplies, and first aid materials. These are the first things to disappear from shelves during any disruption, and they store easily for years.
Spare parts for critical systems.
If you have a well pump, a generator, a wood stove, or any other system your household depends on, identify the parts most likely to fail and keep spares on hand. I’ve got spare filters for my solar system, oil and filters for my generator.
Sources used to gather information
https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2026-2-2-us-cattle-herd-shrinks-to-75-year-low-beef-supply-crisis-deepens-as-inventories-hit-1951-levels
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings
https://www.fmi.org/blog/view/fmi-blog/2026/01/21/how-are-shoppers-feeling-entering-the-new-year
https://dietetics.academy/advance-nutrition/daily-energy-micronutrient-needs-crisis/
Imagine the scene: a flood, an earthquake, or a conflict suddenly displaces thousands of people. They arrive at a camp with nothing but the clothes on their