SCMWeather

SCMWeather Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern and southeastern counties of the area, va...
06/17/2026

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern and southeastern counties of the area, valid until 8:00pm this evening.

Here is how this afternoon's setup is evolving:

⛈️ Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed across and just west of the western portion of the watch area.

These storms are expected to intensify over the next couple of hours as they feed off the energy surrounding a surface low pressure system spinning over southeast Minnesota.

⚠️ Primary Threats ⚠️

🥏 Large Hail: The strongest storms are expected to produce hail to near or larger than golf ball size.

💨 Damaging Winds: Strong to damaging winds are possible, with the most intense storms capable of producing winds to 70mph.

🌪️ Isolated Tornado: While not the dominant threat, the localized rotation near the surface low means a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

If you are in or near the watch area, now is the time to make sure your weather alerts are turned up on your phone. Make sure whatever your preferred method of warning notifications is turned on and nearby.

Stay safe, friends!

Good morning, friends! Model guidance this morning is trending more aggressive with storm re-development today than prev...
06/17/2026

Good morning, friends!

Model guidance this morning is trending more aggressive with storm re-development today than previously modeled. I'll be keeping a close eye on this, and while I still don't expect a significant outbreak, we could see a higher coverage of severe weather than previously expected.

⏱️ Timing & Track
Storms are expected to rapidly develop around noon today near the northwest edge of the red-shaded area on the map.

Once these storms get going, they'll track southeast through the rest of the shaded zone throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.

🥏 Large to Very Large Hail
The atmospheric setup today will favor large hail as our primary concern. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail larger than golf ball size.

💨 Damaging Winds & Torrential Rain
Strong to damaging wind gusts will be a secondary threat, with gusts up to 60mph possible.

These storms will also be efficient rain producers. Expect torrential downpours that could easily drop scattered amounts of 1" or more of rain in a short period, leading to localized street ponding.

🌪️ Tornado Threat
While not the main headline or biggest risk today, the overall dynamics mean an isolated, weak tornado or two cannot be entirely ruled out, especially during the early stages of storm development.

I will be watching trends this morning into the early afternoon hours. With storms expected to fire right around lunch, make sure you have a way to receive warnings if you're out and about this afternoon! Stay weather aware today!

An anomalous and potentially record-breaking storm will bring several rounds of showers and storms to the area thru tomo...
06/17/2026

An anomalous and potentially record-breaking storm will bring several rounds of showers and storms to the area thru tomorrow. This activity is already pushing in from the west and will continue into tonight.

Here is the breakdown of what I'm watching over the next 24 hours:

💦 Tonight's Rain 💦
Model guidance is showing widespread rainfall totals of 0.1-0.4" for most of the area. Where repeated rounds of storms track, or with any heavier rain, we will easily see locally higher totals.

Note on the models: There is still quite a bit of spread in where the more steady rain tracks. This specific model run I've shown isn't the "end-all, be-all," but it gives you a good idea of the potential.

⚠️ Tomorrow's Setup ⚠️
The aforementioned storm driving the weather over the next 24 hours is incredibly impressive for mid-June. A near record low upper-level trough will aid in the development of a record low pressure, more typical of winter or early-spring, that will track through the area tomorrow.

Given the strength of the low, impressive atmospheric dynamics will be present and will collide with the unstable warm and humid, summer-like, airmass to the south.

🔴 Major Severe Weather Outbreak: This clash of seasons will likely trigger one hell of a severe weather outbreak well to our southeast. A significant risk of intense tornadoes and destructive winds exists tomorrow from Missouri through Illinois and Indiana.

🟡 Our Local Threat: Thankfully, the worst of the severe weather WILL remain to our south tomorrow. However, eastern and southeastern areas could see a few severe storms fire tomorrow afternoon, where a level 1 and 2 risk is in place.

I do not expect anything crazy for our area, but the strongest cells will be capable of producing large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

I will have an update tomorrow morning regarding the severe weather potential tomorrow afternoon. Nighty night, friends! Don't let those bed bugs bite 😉

I'm tracking an upper-level shortwave trough digging into our region this afternoon. This system is generating scattered...
06/15/2026

I'm tracking an upper-level shortwave trough digging into our region this afternoon. This system is generating scattered to numerous showers and storms that are entering the NW portion of the area as of 3:30PM.

Here is what you need to know:

🔴 Red Shaded Area
Showers and storms will continue to push east-southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours.

For most of us, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main headline. However, a few of the stronger, more intense showers will be capable of producing winds near or in excess of 60 mph.

⏱️ Timeline & Evolution
Through 10PM: This is your primary window for any strong to briefly severe storms.

After Sunset: Once we lose afternoon heating, the threat for severe-caliber wind gusts will drop off. Showers will likely persist through the overnight hours into tomorrow morning.

Keep an eye to the sky if you have outdoor plans or a late afternoon commute, be prepared to head indoors if storms threaten your location.

☀️ BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ROLL CALL ☀️I'm always bugging you for photos and reports when the weather is at its worst. Today t...
06/14/2026

☀️ BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ROLL CALL ☀️

I'm always bugging you for photos and reports when the weather is at its worst. Today though, it's absolutely stunning for mid-June, so let’s do the exact opposite!

I want see what you're up to. Drop a photo of your view in the comments with your location, and what you're doing to enjoy the day! 👇

Let’s fill the feed with some positive vibes today! ☀️

Happy Friday afternoon, everyone! We have one more round of rain to clear out tonight ahead of a cold front and upper-le...
06/12/2026

Happy Friday afternoon, everyone!

We have one more round of rain to clear out tonight ahead of a cold front and upper-level trough, which looks to usher in beautiful weather for this weekend.

🟢 Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the advancing front after 6PM this evening. The best coverage and highest concentration of wet weather will fall within the green-shaded area on the map.

Most locations will pick up 0.1-0.3" of rain. However, some scattered totals up to 0.5" are possible.

☀️ Once this front passes tonight, it is going to bring a massive and welcome shift to our sensible weather.

We will dry out for Saturday and Sunday, with wall-to-wall sunshine. Behind the front, a cool and dry airmass takes over, with below average temperatures for mid-June.

Things do look to become more active by Tuesday, but for now, let's just take some time to enjoy the stretch of beautiful weather ahead!

Have a great Friday evening and a wonderful weekend, friends!

If you've stepped outside this morning, you've already noticed a massive shift in the air! A seasonably strong storm sys...
06/11/2026

If you've stepped outside this morning, you've already noticed a massive shift in the air! A seasonably strong storm system developing to our south is lifting toward central Wisconsin today, bringing a major shift in our recent weather pattern.

🟢 For those in the green shaded area, waves of light to moderate rain showers, along with an occasional rumble of thunder, will continue much of the day into this evening.

Most spots will pick up 0.10-0.25" of beneficial rain. However, where the heaviest, persistent showers set up, localized totals of 0.50" or more are possible.

🔴 For this in the red shaded area in the far southeast, much of the same will be true as the green area. The difference will be that a small risk of strong storms exists this afternoon here.

If any stronger, isolated storms manage to fire up, they could briefly produce hail and gusty winds. I don't expect anything significant, but a storm or two could get feisty.

📉 The most noticeable change for many will be the thermometer. Instead of the oppressive 90-degree heat indices we've been dealing with as of late, temps today will struggle. Most areas will top out around 70°F at best, with many spots firmly stuck in the 60s under clouds and rain.

Additional showers are possible tomorrow night, but otherwise we dry out for the next several days with cooler conditions for the foreseeable future.

After several rounds of storms over the past 24 hours, it's safe to say that things didn't pan out as anticipated. As yo...
06/11/2026

After several rounds of storms over the past 24 hours, it's safe to say that things didn't pan out as anticipated. As you know, it was expected that today would be "the main event", but we couldn't have been more wrong.

🌬️ The squall line that plowed through during the night last night was the star of the show. With it came widespread wind gusts of 60-80mph, resulting in dozens of damage reports.

🌩️ Additional, more scattered, storms developed today, with several reports of hail and strong winds received as well. All-in-all though, a very lackluster day compared to what was forecast just 48 hours ago.

⚠️ Additional showers and storms are expected tomorrow, as a seasonably strong storm tracks south of the region. Given model differences this evening (and the fact that I'm exhausted), I will hold off until tomorrow to post any maps for that system. Unless you live in the far southeast, severe weather is not expected with this.

Have a great night, friends, and look for a post tomorrow morning on my expectations for the rain and storms tomorrow!

⚠️ 1PM STORM UPDATE ⚠️The storms that fired up and triggered a severe thunderstorm watch over far east and southeastern ...
06/10/2026

⚠️ 1PM STORM UPDATE ⚠️

The storms that fired up and triggered a severe thunderstorm watch over far east and southeastern counties late this morning, are tracking into western Wisconsin.

So... What's next?

Here is what I'm focusing on this afternoon:

🌩️ Severe Thunderstorm Watch
The current watch (pink shaded area) was primarily issued for the ongoing storms as they developed and moved into Wisconsin. Our local threat from this particular line is winding down.

🔴The Red Zone
The sun has been out in many of these areas, and with elevated humidity levels, conditions have been destabilizing ahead of the cold front pushing in from South Dakota.

I anticipate at least scattered thunderstorm redevelopment inside this red shaded box later this afternoon and evening.

At this time, the greatest risk appears to be large hail and heavy rain with any storm that develops. However, localized damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either. Should storms congeal into line segments or clusters, a greater risk of damaging wind could develop.

Enjoy the temporary break in the action, but don't let your guard down just yet! If you are in that red-shaded zone, keep an eye on the sky this afternoon.

I’ll be monitoring the front as it approaches and will provide updates as I am able. Stay weather aware!

🚨 Wednesday Morning Storm Update 🚨Following a round of strong to severe storms last night, I'm watching for yet another ...
06/10/2026

🚨 Wednesday Morning Storm Update 🚨

Following a round of strong to severe storms last night, I'm watching for yet another severe weather threat for later today.

While there is a definite threat of high-impact severe weather remains, there is still notable uncertainty regarding exactly where storms will first fire up.

Storm Timing & Location
• The I-35 Shift: Most reliable model guidance continues to point toward storm initiation occurring along or east of I-35 between 2-4pm today.

• The West Variant: However, there are still models suggesting a further westward initiation. Should that occur, storms could develop as early as 11am-1pm.

⚠️ Main Threats Today ⚠️
Regardless of exactly where the first storms form, the atmospheric environment is highly volatile. Any discrete supercell that manages to develop will have access to ample energy and moisture, bringing all severe hazards to the table.

🌪️ Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are likely, and a strong tornado or two is entirely possible with any sustained supercell.

🥎 Very Large Hail: Hail up to the size of baseballs would be likely with the strongest storms.

💨 Damaging Winds: Wind gusts in excess of 60mph are possible, but should storms fire along that earlier corridor, damaging wind gust potential could increase as storms coalesce into clusters.

⚠️ The Bottom Line: The core messaging from the last couple of days has not changed:

Review your severe weather safety plans and know exactly where to go in the event a warning is issued. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, don't rely on just one!

I intend to update later this morning or early afternoon once trends become more clear. Stay tuned, friends!

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