SCMWeather

SCMWeather Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

Yesterday’s setup played out as expected, with a bowing line of storms making their way across southern areas within the...
09/03/2026

Yesterday’s setup played out as expected, with a bowing line of storms making their way across southern areas within the outlined area late last evening. A lead supercell dropped some chonky hail (softball sized near Easton!), while the main line produced damaging wind gusts up to 68 mph around Rochester.

Looking ahead to Thursday, our next weather setup is shaping up to be a tricky and highly conditional one.

🌧️ Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop southwest of the area early Thursday morning and lift northeastward after 6AM. No severe weather is expected, just some good old fashioned rain and thunder.

❓ What happens tomorrow afternoon and evening will heavily depend on how the morning storms behave:

Scenario A: If morning clouds and storms clear out quickly and allow for ample sunshine, the atmosphere will rapidly destabilize and set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorm re-development later in the day.

Scenario B: If cloud cover and residual rain linger well into the afternoon, it will keep the atmosphere capped and significantly mute the severe threat.

⛈ A Level 2 risk covers most of the region for Thursday, with the most likely threats being wind and hail. I’ll be keeping a close eye on how the morning storms pan out and will post updates as the setup unfolds!

How did your backyard fare with last night’s storms? Drop your rain reports and any pics (I'm looking at you Rochester metro) in the comments below ⬇

++6AM, Tuesday 9/2: This post is outdated, severe storms have exited the area ++Fast-Moving Severe Storm Entering SW Min...
09/02/2026

++6AM, Tuesday 9/2: This post is outdated, severe storms have exited the area ++

Fast-Moving Severe Storm Entering SW Minnesota

A small, high-impact bowing line segment is rapidly pushing into far southwestern Minnesota late this evening.

The primary area of concern thru 2AM is for those near or inside of the red dashed box drawn on the radar image.

💨 Destructive Wind Threat:
It appears a rear-inflow jet has developed with this storm, which is indicative of damaging winds. As this bowing complex moves northeast over the next 30-60 minutes, widespread wind gusts of 60-70mph are likely, with even higher gusts possible. In fact, a wind gust of 81mph was measured with this storm in far NW Iowa!

⚠️ Additional Hazards ⚠️

🌪 Tornadoes: A brief tornado or two is possible along the leading edge of this fast-moving complex.

🧊 Discrete Cells Ahead: Storms firing out ahead of the main cluster could also turn severe, carrying a threat for large hail, gusty winds, and torrential downpours.

Beyond the next hour, exact evolution remains uncertain, but I expect the storm to ride along a warm front draped across southern portions of the area.

📱 Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are ON
⛓️ Secure any loose outdoor furniture
🪟 Stay away from windows once the storm arrives
🔌 Expect power outages
🔦 Have your flashlight handy

🚨 10:40PM Update: A bowing line of storms has entered southwestern Minnesota. Widespread damaging winds are possible as ...
09/01/2026

🚨 10:40PM Update: A bowing line of storms has entered southwestern Minnesota. Widespread damaging winds are possible as this progresses northeastward further into the area. See the latest update on our page!

Severe weather is becoming an increasing concern for the southern third of our area tonight.

⛈️ Storms have developed late this afternoon near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, with reports of hail up to baseball size and localized damaging winds. The expectation is for these storms to continue developing northeast toward our area tonight, potentially organizing into one or more clusters.

❓ The big question mark is, how far north do these severe storms build? My gut tells me the greatest severe threat will end up focused near and south of a Pipestone to Rochester line. However, if things line up just right, the severe risk could extend further north into much of the Level 2 risk zone.

⚠️ Hazards Breakdown:

💨 Damaging Winds: This is the primary threat. If a well-developed bowing line segment moves through, significant wind gusts in excess of 70–80 mph are possible.

🧊 Large Hail: If storms manage to stay more discrete, significant hail larger than golf ball size could occur.

🌪 Tornadoes: The tornado threat remains low, but a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially along the leading edge of any developed line segment.

🌧️ Heavy Rainfall: Additional non-severe storms are likely north of the severe storms, with brief torrential downpours possible.

While I don't have great confidence in how tonight will pan out, when faced with an overnight severe threat, it's always best to prepare BEFORE heading to bed:

📱Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are ON
🔊Turn the volume up on your phone
🔋Put fresh batteries in your weather radio
🪟Secure any loose outdoor furniture
🔦Have your flashlight handy

Stay safe tonight, friends! If you do see any severe weather in your backyard, be sure to snap a photo and share it with us!

Some much needed rainfall is on the way for the area tonight into tomorrow. While I don't see widespread, significant ra...
08/29/2026

Some much needed rainfall is on the way for the area tonight into tomorrow. While I don't see widespread, significant rainfall, we'll take anything we can get at this point!

🌧️ Model guidance has waffled quite a bit on where the heaviest rainfall ends up, but widespread 0.2-0.6" totals are likely with locally higher amounts around an inch possible.

⛈️ A Level 1 risk for severe weather is in place across western areas tonight, but I’m not at all impressed by this setup. While the strongest cells could produce localized gusty winds, small hail, and brief torrential downpours, severe-level wind or hail reports should be isolated at best. In fact, much of the activity will be devoid of thunder and lightning, even.

🕛 Rain should begin within the next 1-2 hours across the southwest before overspreading the rest of the area tonight. Things will clear from southwest to northeast, ending around sunrise in the far southwest to early/mid afternoon further northeast.

Some of us desperately need moisture, so I'll cross my fingers that those who do, see it!🤞🏻

Let’s see those eclipse photos, friends! Here’s my craptastic cell phone photo. Who can do better than this?
08/28/2026

Let’s see those eclipse photos, friends!

Here’s my craptastic cell phone photo. Who can do better than this?

A partial lunar eclipse is on tap for late tonight, and Mother Nature is rolling out the red carpet with near-perfect vi...
08/27/2026

A partial lunar eclipse is on tap for late tonight, and Mother Nature is rolling out the red carpet with near-perfect viewing conditions across the area!

🌕 Expect mostly clear skies throughout the entire event, with overall cloud cover holding at a minimum across the region (mostly under 10%). That means no stubborn low-cloud decks standing between you and a great view.

🔭 Eclipse Timeline Breakdown:

🌖 8:23PM • Penumbral Eclipse Begins: Earth's outer shadow first touches the Moon.

🌗 9:33 PM • Partial Eclipse Begins: The real show starts as Earth's inner shadow takes a bite out of the Moon.

🌘 11:12PM • Maximum Eclipse: The peak moment! This is when the Moon is deepest in Earth's shadow.

🌓 12:51AM • Partial Eclipse Ends: The dark shadow leaves the Moon's face as it fades back to grey.

🌔 2:01AM • Penumbral Eclipse Ends: The Moon fully exits Earth's shadow, wrapping up the event.

Because this is a partial eclipse rather than a total eclipse, a small sliver of the Moon will remain outside the main umbral shadow, but maximum eclipse at 11:12 PM will still put on a fantastic show.

Are you staying up late to catch peak eclipse tonight? Let me know where you're watching from in the comments below, and be sure to share your photos tonight!

Showers stuck around for a while today, which has worked to limit the atmospheric instability across parts of the region...
08/20/2026

Showers stuck around for a while today, which has worked to limit the atmospheric instability across parts of the region. Even as I type this, showers are re-developing from near Hector through Le Sueur, continuing to chew into the moisture and instability.

🌧️ Even so, an incoming cold front will still have just enough moisture and instability to trigger scattered storm development early evening. Because the overall "ingredients" are fairly limited, I'm not expecting anything widespread nor intense, but a few strong to severe storms are certainly possible.

🌩️ Model guidance has been persistent that storm development will likely occur in the northwest around Alexandria and Little Falls before tracking southeast toward St. Cloud and the Twin Cities metro as the evening progresses.

🚨 As such, a Level 1 and Level 2 Risk covers much of our area through the early overnight hours.

⚠️ Primary Hazards Breakdown:

🧊Hail is the primary threat, up to half dollar size.
💨Gusty winds of 50-60mph possible.
🌧 Brief heavy rain possible, the flash flood threat is minimal.
🌪 The tornado threat is very low, but as always, it's never zero when dealing with severe storms.

Storms will be mostly isolated to scattered in nature, so most of you will wake up tomorrow wondering what I was yapping about today.

Lastly...

I received a couple of messages concerned for my well being. As some of you know, I now live in NW Indiana where last Tuesday morning, we bore the brunt of a derecho with winds in excess of 100mph.

It was easily the most intense storm I've ever been through (my exterior bedroom wall was flexing with the strongest gusts 😳), but I am safe!

The damage was catastrophic and knocked out power to over 370,000 homes and businesses. It's been 9 days and over 70,000 homes and businesses are STILL without power in my county alone.

Thank you so much to those who reached out expressing concern, you mean the world to me! I don't personally have damage to my home, but know so many people who do. Keep us in your thoughts and prayers as we work to get back to some semblance of normal!

📣 Severe Weather Threat Tonight 📣Over the past 12-24 hours, model guidance has really ramped up the threat for severe we...
08/10/2026

📣 Severe Weather Threat Tonight 📣

Over the past 12-24 hours, model guidance has really ramped up the threat for severe weather for tonight into Tuesday morning. If you're in southern areas, you need to pay attention to this setup.

⛈️ Storms are expected to develop across central South Dakota after 9PM this evening. These storms are forecasted to coalesce into a fast-moving, bowing complex that will ride an instability gradient draped across our southern counties.

While some details are still being ironed out, it is becoming increasingly possible, even likely, that a significant wind event will impact parts of the area.

The highest risk lies within the Level 2 and 3 risk zones, where model guidance consistently tracks this bowing line, but even those in the Level 1 area shouldn't let their guard down.

⚠️ Hazards Breakdown ⚠️

💨 Damaging Winds: Gusts in excess of 70-80mph+ are possible. Winds of this magnitude are capable of widespread tree damage, power outages, and even minor structural impacts.

🌪️ Tornadoes & Hail: Hail up to quarter size is possible, along with a brief tornado or two along the leading edge of the line of storms.

🌧️ Torrential Downpours: Tropical-like moisture will lead to intense rainfall rates, with a quick inch or two of rain possible.

⏰ This will be a mostly overnight event, with the primary window of concern between 2-8AM Tuesday morning.

Nocturnal severe weather is dangerous because most people are sleeping when it occurs. Before heading to bed tonight:

📱Make sure your phone's Wireless Emergency Alerts are ON
🔊Turn the volume up on your phone
🔋Put fresh batteries in your weather radio
🪟Secure any loose outdoor furniture
🔦Have your flashlight handy

Hopefully by late evening we have some greater clarity on how this complex of storms will behave tonight. Stay tuned, and stay safe, friends!

Another beautiful August day is on tap across the area, featuring sunny skies, comfortable humidity (by summertime stand...
08/08/2026

Another beautiful August day is on tap across the area, featuring sunny skies, comfortable humidity (by summertime standards, anyway), and pleasant temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

💨 You might notice a hazy or milky look to the sky today. That’s thanks to wildfire smoke aloft drifting in from large fires ongoing in the Pacific Northwest. This is something that’s likely to stick around for the next several days.

⛈️ Late today into tonight, we'll need to keep an eye on the sky. Renewed storm development is expected late this evening, likely after 9PM. These storms look to be scattered in nature, but the strongest cells will be capable of producing torrential downpours, small hail, and strong gusty winds.

🚨 A Level 1 severe weather risk covers much of our area tonight. The tornado risk is very low, but it's never zero when it comes to severe storms. Activity will persist through much of the overnight hours, sliding southeast and likely exiting the area around sunrise Sunday.

🔮 Turning to Sunday, a more muggy airmass returns along with additional storm chances. However, tomorrow’s forecast details remain murky, as daytime storm development will heavily depend on how tonight’s storms behave and clear out.

What are your plans for this Saturday? Whatever they are, make it a great day, friends!

Scattered showers and storms continue to push eastward across the area this morning, with additional storms likely to de...
08/07/2026

Scattered showers and storms continue to push eastward across the area this morning, with additional storms likely to develop later this morning into the afternoon hours.

⛈️ Scattered to numerous storms are tracking east around 35mph this morning, with the strongest activity currently moving through southern Meeker, McLeod, Sibley, and Nicollet counties.

These storms are gradually weakening right now, but the strongest cells could still produce heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds.

🚨 As a cold front pushes through the area today, coverage and intensity may tick back up as heating builds later this morning into early afternoon.

A Level 1 Risk of severe weather remains in place today with the greatest threats being localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and torrential rainfall. The tornado risk is very low, but it's never zero when it comes to severe storms.

🔮 Rain and storm chances persist into the afternoon before the cold front sweeps through, taking the storm threat along with it. We dry out tonight into tomorrow, before the threat of at least scattered showers and storms ramp back up again tomorrow night into Sunday.

Don't be like our dwarf friend Bashful, drop your rain gauge totals or photos in the comments below. I always love seeing my followers reports, so don't disappoint me 😉

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