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SCMWeather Accurate, easy to understand, no-hype, weather forecasts for southern Minnesota since 2011. I hope you will enjoy SCMWeather!

Follow along to stay updated on the latest weather to impact our corner of the Midwest! Questions are always welcome, so feel free to post them on the wall or in a personal message to me. And also, if you enjoy seeing my posts, be sure you share SCMWx with your family and friends!

After a soaking rain for a good chunk of the area, we're going to trade the rain for downright chilly weather. Today's s...
10/16/2026

After a soaking rain for a good chunk of the area, we're going to trade the rain for downright chilly weather.

Today's storm system ended up tracking a bit farther west than anticipated last night. As a result, a much larger footprint of 0.25-0.75" rainfall occurred across the area. And while the rain is gradually departing to the east this evening, we're not quite done with this storm yet.

💨 Winds will continue to increase into tonight as the storm pulls away and a much colder airmass spills into the region. Northwest wind gusts of 35–45 mph are possible through Friday morning, subsiding into the afternoon hours.

And remember I discussed the need to dust off the wind chill chart? Well, the dust is gone!

🥶 By Friday morning, wind chills are expected to dip into the middle and upper 20s across much of western Minnesota, with readings a bit warmer farther east. After the record warmth earlier this week, that's going to be quite the shock to the system!

The cold doesn't stop there, though.

A Freeze Watch is in effect for Friday night into Saturday morning, with the first widespread killing freeze of the season looking increasingly likely. If you've still got sensitive plants or vegetation outside that you'd like to keep around a little longer, be sure to bring them in sometime before you go to bed tomorrow.

I'll have more on the freeze potential tomorrow!

From summer earlier this week to digging out the WIND CHILL chart by Friday morning. Welcome to fall in the Upper Midwes...
10/15/2026

From summer earlier this week to digging out the WIND CHILL chart by Friday morning. Welcome to fall in the Upper Midwest!

A fairly potent fall storm system will organize Thursday as an upper-level trough digs into the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast. And this one is going to certainly remind us that it is indeed fall.

🌧️ RAINFALL 🌧️

As low pressure develops south of Minnesota, a band of steady rain will develop on the northwest side of the storm. This is where the more substantial rainfall is expected, particularly across southeastern Minnesota and into Wisconsin.

Rainfall amounts will vary quite a bit across the area. Much of western and central Minnesota is looking at less than a tenth of an inch, while areas farther southeast could pick up a half inch or more.

There's still some uncertainty with exactly where the heaviest rain sets up, though. Model guidance continues to vary on the storm track and placement of that rain band, so the amounts you see here could shift northwest or southeast.

💨 WIND 💨

As the storm strengthens and eventually pulls away Thursday evening into Friday morning, northwest winds will increase considerably. Gusts of 30–40 mph will be common, with some locations in western Minnesota potentially exceeding 40 mph.

And with much cooler air pouring in behind the storm, those winds are going to have some bite to them!

In fact, we're going to have to dust off the wind chill chart for Thursday night into Friday morning with wind chills dipping into the mid 20s for some.

By Friday morning, the summer-like warmth of earlier this week will be a distant memory. Yes, the same Minnesota that was flirting with 90° just a few days ago is now going to have us bundling up by Friday morning.

'Tis fall in the Upper Midwest. A magical place where you can experience every season in one week! 🍂

Ahhhhh... there it is.😌🍂After our stretch of summer-like weather, stepping outside into some actual fall air feels prett...
10/14/2026

Ahhhhh... there it is.

😌🍂

After our stretch of summer-like weather, stepping outside into some actual fall air feels pretty good, doesn't it?

Just when I was beginning to think we'd have to file a missing season report... 😂 Welcome back, fall. We've missed you!

Well, after several days of record-breaking, summer-like warmth, fall is finally trying to make its way back into Minnes...
10/13/2026

Well, after several days of record-breaking, summer-like warmth, fall is finally trying to make its way back into Minnesota. But for some awaiting its return, it sure is taking it's sweet time pushing in.

Much cooler air is slowly advancing in tonight as the strong ridge responsible for our recent warmth breaks down. However, a developing area of low pressure along the cold front has complicated things a bit.

The front has been making better progress across western Minnesota, while the low pressure system has slowed its eastward movement farther southeast. That's allowing the summer-like warmth to hang on a little longer in southeastern Minnesota, even as cooler air continues spilling into the western and northern parts of the state.

🌡️ Highs Tuesday will be much closer to seasonal levels, with highs in the southeast (the areas in the mid to upper 60s) likely being achieved just after midnight.

🌧️ There is also a weak signal for some light showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly across central portions of the area. Model guidance hasn't been particularly convincing with this, and even where showers do develop, rainfall amounts look unimpressive. As in, barely enough to wet the ground for most.

But wait... There's more!

An even cooler airmass looks to arrive later this week, accompanied by another opportunity for some rain. Behind that system, the potential for our first freeze of the season is becoming increasingly likely by Saturday morning.

So, after spending part of October pretending it's July, Minnesota may be getting ready to remind us what time of year it actually is! 🍂

Apparently, October 2026 can't decide what season it wants to be, and tomorrow is going to be a perfect example of that!...
10/11/2026

Apparently, October 2026 can't decide what season it wants to be, and tomorrow is going to be a perfect example of that!

After near-record and record-breaking warmth across the entire area yesterday, it's another unusually warm day today with near record highs yet again for some.

But... Changes are finally on the horizon!

That's because the strong upper-level ridge responsible for our late-season heat is beginning to break down, allowing cooler air to gradually work its way into the area.

🌡️ Monday afternoon temps will range from the upper 40s across far northwest Minnesota to the upper 80s in the southeast, as shown by the yellow numbers on the map. Now that's a temp gradient!

The cooler air will continue spreading across the region into Tuesday, eventually bringing temps back toward more seasonable levels for everyone.

🌧️ There will also be some opportunities for showers as this transition takes place, although model guidance continues to waffle around on exactly where they'll develop. At this point though, rainfall looks light.

I'll have more on the rain potential tomorrow morning once we get a better handle on where those showers may develop.

In the meantime, I hope you're enjoying another day of summer in October. One county at a time, fall will make it's return! 🍂

🚨 MISSING: FALL 🚨 If located, please return immediately. Its absence is becoming increasingly concerning.Seriously thoug...
10/10/2026

🚨 MISSING: FALL 🚨 If located, please return immediately. Its absence is becoming increasingly concerning.

Seriously though, what in the wannabe-July is going on around here?!

A strong upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes is bringing unseasonably warm conditions to the Upper Midwest this weekend. Highs today will climb well into the 80s across much of the area, with some locations potentially reaching 90°F. Highs both today and tomorrow will approach or even exceed records in some areas.

And... To put into perspective just how unusual this warmth is...

If today were JULY 10th instead of OCTOBER 10th, these temperatures would STILL be above average. Let that sink in for a minute. 🤯

The biggest difference between today and a typical mid-July day is the humidity. Thankfully, we're dealing with much drier air, so despite the summer-like temperatures, it won't have the same miserable feeling as July.

🔥 One thing worth mentioning is the elevated fire danger, particularly across western portions of the area. The combination of high temps, low humidity, breezy winds, and plenty of dry vegetation will make it easier for fires to start and spread. Please be especially careful with anything that could produce a spark or open flame today.

As for tomorrow, the unseasonably warm weather sticks around for most of the area, although changes are on the horizon. Temps should settle back toward more seasonable levels as we head into the upcoming workweek.

So if you're a fan of summer, congratulations! You've apparently been granted an extension.

For the rest of us waiting for crisp mornings, hoodie weather, and actual fall temperatures...we've filed a missing season report. 🍂

Believe it or not, a strong area of low pressure 700+ miles north in Manitoba is calling the shots with our weather toda...
10/06/2026

Believe it or not, a strong area of low pressure 700+ miles north in Manitoba is calling the shots with our weather today.

🌡️ A warm front extending from that low is lifting through the region, opening the door to a MUCH warmer afternoon. Highs will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s for most, with a few mid 80s possible across southwestern and south-central Minnesota. Not exactly screaming "Fall" out there today...

💨 It'll be breezy too, especially across eastern and southern Minnesota. Gusts of 30–35mph are possible in those areas, with winds slowly decreasing this afternoon.

For those who enjoy the warm weather, enjoy it while it lasts because the same low pressure system has a cold front trailing behind it. That front will drop through the area tonight, knocking temperatures back closer to average for Wednesday and Thursday.

🌧️ After that, some model guidance is picking up on an upper-level system moving through Thursday night into Friday, which could bring some rain to parts of the area. I'll be keeping an eye on it, but I don't expect any drought-busting rainfall with it.

Then... because apparently October can't make up its mind... well above average temperatures look poised to return for the weekend.

Cool, Canadian high pressure is settling into the region tonight, and with skies clearing out, temps will drop off prett...
10/04/2026

Cool, Canadian high pressure is settling into the region tonight, and with skies clearing out, temps will drop off pretty quickly overnight.

🥶 A Frost Advisory has been issued for northeastern portions of the area, where temps could dip into the mid 30s Monday morning. Truth be told, I’m not convinced frost will be widespread, but with clear skies, light winds and a cool, dry airmass, Mother Nature has the ingredients to prove me wrong.

So, if you’re in the advisory area and still have any sensitive plants hanging out outside, I would cover them up or bring them inside tonight.

Elsewhere, lows should range from the upper 30s across central Minnesota to the lower and middle 40s farther south and west.

🔮 After tonight, there really isn’t much to write home about in the weather department. Lots of sunshine and above-average temps will rule the roost through the upcoming week, with Monday morning likely being the coolest it gets for the next 7 days.

In other words, while it will be a beautiful early-October week, fall is stopping by tonight to say hi, and then packing up and leaving again...

A fall weather system is moving through the Upper Midwest today, and it’s bringing with it some wind and generally light...
10/03/2026

A fall weather system is moving through the Upper Midwest today, and it’s bringing with it some wind and generally light rain.

An upper-level shortwave trough is moving across the region, basically giving the atmosphere a little shove and helping showers develop as we head into the afternoon. Rain will be light, although there could be some pockets of brief heavier rain at times.

🌧️ Most areas will see amounts of 0.10", or less, but localized totals of 0.25"+ are likely, especially along and north of the MN-7 corridor. Not drought-busting but at this point, we’ll take what we can get.

💨 It's pretty breezy out there, with wind gusts of 25-35mph common across much of the area this morning. The gusty south-southeast winds will continue ahead of the rain.

And you may want to soak up the rain while you can—literally, I suppose. This looks like our last decent opportunity for rainfall for at least the next week, and perhaps longer, as the overall pattern begins taking on a very typical El Niño look.

So enjoy your Saturday rain. Apparently that’s a thing we’re saying now. 😂

Once we can get rid of the fog plaguing much of the area this morning, the final day of September is shaping up to be a ...
09/30/2026

Once we can get rid of the fog plaguing much of the area this morning, the final day of September is shaping up to be a warm one!

🌡️ This afternoon, temps will climb into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. Clouds will be more common the closer you get to the Minnesota/Iowa state line, with cloud cover gradually increasing elsewhere throughout the day.

Then tonight, a cold front will FINALLY make its way through the area and bring some changes with it.

🌧️ Remember the talk about the remnants of Hurricane Polo earlier this week? Well, the model windshield wiper eventually settled on "south." 😂 Most of that tropical moisture will stay south of Minnesota tonight, but some light rain could sneak into far southern portions of the state, mainly south of an Albert Lea to Winona line.

I'm not expecting much, even there, but depending on just how far north the rain can make it, a tenth or two isn't out of the question.

🍂 Behind the front, a cooler and noticeably less humid airmass will settle into the Upper Midwest. In fact, cooler temperatures and lower humidity is likely to stick around into early next week.

So friends, enjoy one last warm September afternoon. October apparently plans on actually acting like October upon its arrival!

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