01/08/2026
We want to speak plainly about what is forecast for Friday 9 January, because this is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous fire weather days since Black Summer (2019/20).
Three Victorian forecast districts are already predicted to reach Catastrophic fire danger.
The rest of the state – including Central (which includes Melbourne and the Yarra Valley) – is forecast to be Extreme, and at the higher end of Extreme, with the potential to escalate further as conditions are refined.
To put this into real terms, Trida is:
• Forecast 40°C
• Strong north-westerly winds of 35–50 km/h
• A late south-westerly cool change which could bring thunderstorms and lightening with little rain predicted
That combination is one of the most dangerous fire weather setups we see in Victoria.
A late south-westerly wind change has the potential to rapidly turn the flank or edge of a large fire into a fast-moving, wide fire front, placing new areas at risk with little warning.
These are the kinds of conditions that have driven major fire events, including during the 2019/20 and 2009 fire seasons.
🔥 Why this matters
On days like this:
• Fires can start easily and spread extremely fast
• Fires may be impossible to contain or control
• Spot fires can occur sometimes kilometres ahead of the main fire
• Fire behaviour can change suddenly and violently
• Fires can overwhelm firefighting resources very quickly
🚗 Leave early means early
When authorities say leave early, they mean before a fire starts, not when smoke is visible or sirens are sounding.
In Extreme or Catastrophic conditions, waiting to see what happens can remove your safest option.
📻📱 Have more than one way to get warnings
Do not rely on a single source.
• ABC Radio 774 AM
• VicEmergency app and website
• Local emergency and community pages
• A battery-powered radio in case power or mobile networks fail
If one system fails, you need another.
This is not about panic.
It is about recognising a dangerous forecast, learning from past fire seasons, and making decisions early.
Please take the time now to prepare, talk with family and neighbours, and have a clear plan for Friday.
We're all hoping the day turns into a fizzer, but we still ask, heed the warnings and keep a level head.
Stay safe. We love our community.