Gulf & Atlantic Storm Watch

06/15/2026

🌀 NORTHWESTERN GULF TROPICAL UPDATE
Issued: June 15, 2026

A broad area of low pressure over northeastern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While tropical development is not expected in the short term, this system will remain under close monitoring as it gradually moves northward and potentially re-emerges over the northwestern Gulf later this week.

📌 Current Situation

* A trough of low pressure remains centered over northeastern Mexico.
* Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas.
* The system currently lacks a well-defined center of circulation.
* Strong upper-level winds and its inland position are preventing development at this time.

🌊 Development Potential

* 48-Hour Formation Chance: Near 0% (Low)
* 7-Day Formation Chance: 30% (Low)

📈 What Happens Next?

* The disturbance is expected to drift northward over southern Texas through Tuesday.
* By late Tuesday into Wednesday, it could move back over the northwestern Gulf.
* Sea surface temperatures remain very warm and would support development if a circulation can form.
* However, wind shear and interaction with an approaching frontal boundary will likely remain limiting factors.

🌧️ Greatest Threat: Heavy Rainfall

Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops, the primary concern will be excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

Areas of concern include:

* Eastern Texas
* Southeast Texas
* Southern Louisiana
* Portions of Central Texas

☔ Rainfall Outlook Through This Week

* Widespread totals of 3 to 6 inches appear likely.
* Localized amounts of 8 inches or more are possible where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same locations.
* Urban flooding, roadway flooding, and flash flooding may develop quickly in the heaviest rain bands.

🔍 Forecast Confidence

* High confidence in a significant rainfall event.
* Low confidence in tropical cyclone formation.
* Most forecast guidance continues to favor a rain-producing disturbance rather than a well-organized tropical system.

⚠️ Bottom Line

This is primarily a flooding threat, not currently a wind threat. Residents across Texas and Louisiana should focus on the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding while we continue to monitor any possibility of tropical development later this week.

06/15/2026

🌧️⚠️ CENTRAL TEXAS FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASING

This setup has classic Texas summer flash-flood potential written all over it.

The meteorology behind this event is a textbook recipe for high-efficiency rainfall, and the Weather Prediction Center’s Level 2 of 4 (Slight Risk) for excessive rainfall is well justified.

When deep tropical moisture collides with a stalled frontal boundary, the atmosphere becomes highly efficient at producing heavy rainfall. Here’s why forecasters are paying close attention over the next 48 hours:

📌 METEOROLOGICAL SETUP

🌊 Deep Tropical Moisture (PWAT Anomalies)

• A surge of tropical moisture from the Gulf will push precipitable water (PWAT) values into the 2.2 to 2.5-inch range.
• For June in Central Texas, those values are near the 99th percentile of climatology.
• In simple terms, the atmosphere will be holding nearly as much moisture as it possibly can.

🌬️ The Frontal Boundary

• A weak summer cold front will slowly sag southward and eventually stall across portions of Central and South-Central Texas.
• As the front loses its forward momentum, it becomes a stationary focus for repeated thunderstorm development.
• This boundary will act as the spark that continually ignites new storms.

🌧️ High Rainfall Efficiency

• Tropical air masses feature very low cloud bases and deep warm-cloud layers.
• Instead of producing large hail, storms convert a significant portion of available moisture directly into rainfall.
• This results in extremely efficient rain-producing thunderstorms capable of dumping tremendous amounts of water in a short period of time.

⚠️ PRIMARY FLOODING THREATS

🚂 Training Thunderstorms

• Training occurs when storms repeatedly move over the same location, similar to train cars traveling along a track.
• Upper-level winds are expected to run parallel to the stalled front, increasing the likelihood of repeated rounds of heavy rain over the same areas.
• This can quickly lead to dangerous flash flooding, even if individual storms are not particularly severe.

🌧️ Extreme Rainfall Rates

• With moisture levels this high, rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are certainly possible.
• Rain falling at that intensity can easily overwhelm drainage systems, roads, low-lying areas, and urban infrastructure.
• Flash flooding can develop rapidly before creeks and rivers even have time to respond.

📊 HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK

• Much of the region has been relatively dry during the past week, allowing soils to initially absorb some rainfall.
• However, once the ground becomes saturated Sunday night, any additional heavy rainfall on Monday will run off much more efficiently.
• Areas experiencing repeated thunderstorm activity will have the highest risk for flash flooding.

🔍 WHAT TO WATCH

• Flash Flood Watches and Warnings
• Local radar trends
• High-water crossings and flood-prone roads
• Locations where storms repeatedly redevelop and track over the same area

📌 BOTTOM LINE

While not everyone will experience flooding, any area caught beneath training thunderstorms could see several inches of rain in just a few hours. Localized rainfall totals exceeding 6 to 8 inches cannot be ruled out where storms repeatedly move over the same corridor.

🚗 Remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.

06/14/2026

06/14/2026

06/14/2026

Updated at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- NHC continues to indicate a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the next 7 days for a trough of low pressure currently located over northeastern Mexico.

- Rainy conditions will continue through at least the middle of next week as deep tropical moisture coincides with an approaching weak frontal boundary.

- WPC highlights a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for Monday. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place for the rest of today, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

- High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding continue through at least tonight.

06/14/2026

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the next few days. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches is forecast, with locally higher amounts of 6-8 inches possible in the more organized storms. Flash flooding is possible, especially as we head towards Tuesday.

- After a brief break from the heat and humidity on Monday and Tuesday, dangerous heat builds back in by midweek. Peak afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with peak heat indices near 103-107 (39-42 Celsius).

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents this weekend, likely continuing into portions of next week with elevated high tides.

06/14/2026

- A weak frontal boundary will combine with deep tropical moisture to increase precipitation chances this afternoon through Tuesday. These storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could pose a flood risk.

- Another round of heavier rain will be possible during the second half of the week in association with the low pressure off the coast of Mexico.

- High temperatures the first half of the work week may be slightly below normal due to higher than normal rain chances and cloud cover.

06/14/2026

🌧️ GULF COAST WEATHER DISCUSSION

Heavy Rain & Flash Flood Threat Increasing This Week

📅 Issued: 1:49 PM CDT | Sunday, June 14, 2026

📌 Bottom Line

* A prolonged period of tropical moisture will impact the Gulf Coast through at least midweek.
* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected daily.
* Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are becoming increasing concerns.
* A stalled frontal boundary combined with deep tropical moisture will create favorable conditions for repeated rounds of heavy rain.
* Some areas could receive several inches of rainfall through next weekend.
* The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a weak disturbance near northeastern Mexico with a 30% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days.
* Regardless of tropical development, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

⸻

🌡️ This Afternoon & Tonight

Conditions continue to become more unsettled across the region this afternoon.

Current Conditions

* Temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
* Dewpoints remain in the 70s.
* Heat index values reaching the mid-90s to lower 100s.
* While Heat Advisory criteria are not expected, caution is advised for anyone spending extended time outdoors.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already increasing in coverage and are expected to become widespread through the remainder of the day.

⸻

🌊 Tropical Moisture Surge Incoming

A broad area of high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf continues to funnel rich tropical moisture northward.

Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure moving across northern Mexico is expected to gradually shift toward South Texas.

Why This Matters

* Deep tropical moisture will continue streaming northward into the Gulf Coast states.
* Atmospheric moisture levels (PWATs) are forecast to exceed the 90th percentile for mid-June.
* Some values may approach or exceed daily climatological maximums.
* Extremely efficient rainfall production is expected with any thunderstorms.

This means storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short period of time.

⸻

⚠️ Flash Flooding Concerns

A frontal boundary is forecast to stall across the region through much of the upcoming week.

This boundary will act as a focus for repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

Flooding Setup

* Stalled front
* Deep tropical moisture
* Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf
* Slow-moving thunderstorms
* Potential training of storms over the same areas

These ingredients could lead to:

* Localized flash flooding
* Urban flooding
* Ponding of water on roadways
* Rapid rises on creeks and streams

⸻

🗺️ WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook

The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of the region in:

* 🟢 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
* 🟡 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4)

for excessive rainfall through much of the upcoming week.

Monday & Tuesday

Forecast confidence is increasing that these may become the most impactful rainfall days.

Potential exists for:

* 🟠 Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) upgrades
* Flash Flood Watch issuance

Additional confidence will depend on how rainfall evolves over the next 24 hours.

⸻

🌧️ Midweek Outlook (Wednesday–Thursday)

While the stalled front should gradually weaken later this week, abundant tropical moisture is expected to remain in place.

As a result:

* Rain coverage may decrease somewhat.
* Heavy downpours will remain possible.
* Localized flooding concerns will continue.
* Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely.

⸻

🌀 Tropical Development Outlook

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the disturbance currently associated with northeastern Mexico.

Current NHC Outlook

* Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0%
* Formation chance through 7 days: 30%

Environmental conditions may become somewhat more favorable if the system re-emerges over the northwestern Gulf during the middle of the week.

However, tropical development remains uncertain.

Important Takeaway

Whether this system becomes tropical or not is largely irrelevant to the rainfall threat.

Heavy rain and flash flooding remain the primary hazards for Gulf Coast communities this week.

⸻

📊 Forecast Confidence

High Confidence

✅ Increasing tropical moisture
✅ Daily shower and thunderstorm activity
✅ Heavy rainfall potential through midweek

Moderate Confidence

⚠️ Exact placement of heaviest rainfall bands
⚠️ Potential flood watch issuance
⚠️ Rainfall totals for individual communities

Lower Confidence

❓ Tropical development potential
❓ Exact track of the weak low-pressure area

⸻

⏰ What to Watch

* Increasing rainfall coverage Monday and Tuesday
* Possible Flash Flood Watch issuance
* Potential WPC outlook upgrades
* Any changes in NHC development probabilities
* Localized areas where storms repeatedly track over the same locations

Stay weather aware this week, especially if you live in flood-prone areas. The flood threat may become more significant than any tropical development concerns. 🌧️🌊⚠️

06/14/2026

🌀 TROPICAL UPDATE
📅 2:00 PM CDT | Sunday, June 14, 2026

1️⃣ Northwestern Gulf of America

A broad trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region.

📌 Current Situation
• The disturbance remains inland over northeastern Mexico.
• No significant development is expected through the next 24 to 48 hours.
• The system is forecast to drift northward across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the next couple of days.

📌 Looking Ahead
• By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the system could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America.
• Environmental conditions may become somewhat more favorable for gradual development around midweek.
• Any development, if it occurs, is expected to be slow.

⚠️ Primary Concern: Heavy Rainfall
Regardless of tropical development, the greatest threat will be excessive rainfall.

Areas of concern include:
• Eastern Texas
• Southern Texas
• Louisiana

Potential impacts:
• Heavy tropical downpours
• Localized flash flooding
• Flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas
• Travel disruptions where repeated rounds of rain occur

📊 Formation Chances
• Next 48 Hours: Near 0% (Low)
• Next 7 Days: 30% (Low)

We will continue to closely monitor this system and provide updates as new information becomes available.