08/06/2026
Which disease is most likely to trigger an outbreak in the Mano River Region in 2026?
As public health professionals working across Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, and Côte d'Ivoire, this is a question we cannot afford to leave unanswered.
The Mano River Health Security Alliance (MRHSA) has developed an evidence-based outbreak risk outlook for 2026 — and the findings demand our collective attention.
Here's what the data tells us:
#1 — Cholera | Most Likely Outbreak
Driven by seasonal flooding, limited access to safe water, and poor sanitation in urban and peri-urban areas, cholera remains the highest-probability threat across the region. Recent activity in Côte d'Ivoire is a warning signal we must not ignore.
#2 — Lassa Fever | Persistent Endemic Threat
Lassa fever is not new — but it remains deadly and underestimated. Endemic in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, it circulates year-round, with health facility transmission continuing to pose risks to frontline workers.
#3 — Mpox | Emerging Regional Risk
Following Sierra Leone's large outbreak in 2025–2026, mpox has become a major concern. Sustained human-to-human transmission, cross-border spread risks, and vaccine access gaps require urgent attention.
#4 — Ebola | Lower Probability, Highest Impact
With outbreaks still active in DRC and Uganda, EVD risk to our region — while currently lower — must never be treated casually. A single undetected introduction could be catastrophic.
The vulnerabilities driving these risks — cross-border population movement, overburdened health systems, WASH deficits, and surveillance gaps — are not new. But in 2026, we have more tools, more partnerships, and more collective will to act.
Strengthened surveillance. Community engagement. WASH improvement. Cross-border collaboration. These are not aspirations — they are necessities.
The Mano River region has survived its share of epidemics. Our job now is to make sure the next one never takes hold.
This analysis was developed by the Mano River Health Security Alliance. Data sourced from WHO Africa, Ministry of Health reports, and regional surveillance updates (2024–May 2026).
Population Services International Clinton Health Access Initiative Jhpiego Sierra Leone GIZ Sierra Leone and Liberia Mohamed Megga Kallon World Health Organization Sierra Leone