Sea Sentinels PH

01/08/2026

31/07/2026

A new tropical disturbance, Invest 94W, has emerged over the Western Pacific Basin.

Satellite imagery indicates a persistent and increasingly organized cloud cluster, with low level vorticity evident within the circulation. The system is currently enhancing rainfall over the eastern parts of the country.

At this time, global ensemble guidance suggests the disturbance is likely to remain a low to moderate intensity tropical system over the coming days. Forecast guidance indicates a general west northwestward track, with the system expected to approach Northern Luzon while its future evolution continues to be monitored closely due to remaining forecast uncertainties.

28/07/2026

A Low Pressure Area has developed approximately 315 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. The system formed rapidly over the past few hours, with satellite imagery indicating an organized cloud cluster and increasing low-level vorticity. The disturbance is expected to bring cloudy skies, scattered rain showers, and thunderstorms across nearby areas, particularly Eastern Visayas.

Given its sudden development, forecast confidence remains limited, as several numerical weather models have yet to fully assimilate the latest observational data. Current guidance indicates that the system is unlikely to undergo significant intensification.

16/07/2026

𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 (Next 7 Days)

A new development is hinting at a potential tropical disturbance for next week. Invest 90W has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, according to PAGASA, while several weather models continue to suggest a possible direct landfall over the Luzon area.
At this time, confidence remains low and the forecast is still subject to change. We'll continue monitoring the latest weather data over the next few days before making any conclusions.

Note: This post is not intended to cause alarm, but rather to provide an early outlook and give everyone an idea of what the coming days may bring.

Further details will be provided as additional data becomes available in the coming days.

05/07/2026

Typhoon Bavi is now directly over the island of Rota.

Residents within the eye may witness the spectacular stadium effect and experience around 30–40 minutes of calm conditions as the eye passes overhead. However, everyone is strongly advised to remain indoors and avoid going outside to take photos or move debris. The eye moves quickly, and once the opposite eyewall arrives, destructive winds will rapidly return from the opposite direction, creating extremely dangerous conditions.

05/07/2026

The island of Rota is now just minutes away from entering the eye of Typhoon Bavi. Residents are currently experiencing the most intense winds and weather conditions associated with the storm. Once the eye moves overhead, conditions are expected to become temporarily calm for approximately 30–40 minutes before the violent winds return as the opposite eyewall passes through.

04/07/2026

Super Typhoon Bavi is likely entering the early stages of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). This is supported by the weakening of deep convection near the inner eyewall, as indicated by warming cloud tops, along with the development of a secondary eyewall that is becoming evident in recent microwave imagery.

As the ERC progresses, Bavi may undergo a slight decrease in intensity, which is a normal part of this process. Despite this, it is expected to remain an extremely powerful super typhoon, with sustained winds still exceeding 200 km/h. Once the outer eyewall fully replaces the inner eyewall, the cyclone is expected to reorganize, with a well defined eye likely reappearing over the next few days.

04/07/2026

Current satellite imagery shows Super Typhoon Bavi just a few kilometers off Guam. The system is currently a Category 5 super typhoon, packing 1-minute sustained winds of up to 260 km/h with a central pressure of 922 hPa. Bavi is expected to pass near or across Guam in the coming days. Several well known storm chasers have already pre positioned themselves ahead of the typhoon, preparing for the opportunity to document and observe the storm up close.

01/07/2026

𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐲𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 (Next 7 Days)

Multiple weather models, along with forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), are indicating the potential development of a high-end Category 4 typhoon that could pass near the Philippines in the coming weeks. Current guidance suggests a low likelihood of direct landfall, with the system more likely to recurve toward Okinawa and eventually South Korea.

Despite the low landfall potential, the storm's large circulation could still bring outer rainbands and enhance the southwest monsoon (Habagat), resulting in periods of rain, gusty winds, and rough seas across parts of the country. As this remains a long-range forecast, the track and intensity are still subject to change.

Note: This post is not intended to cause alarm, but rather to provide an early outlook and give everyone an idea of what the coming days may bring.

Further details will be provided as additional data becomes available in the coming days.

29/06/2026

Note: Read Carefully

This chase is a training exercise conducted during a relatively weak tropical disturbance to provide a safe and controlled environment for operational testing.
Prior to deployment, the team has established pre-planned routes, designated observation points, and assigned responsibilities for each crew member.

Throughout the exercise, the team will collect meteorological data, including wind speed, wind gusts, and atmospheric pressure, while also documenting the event through video and photographic footage.
The primary objective is to simulate the operational demands of responding to a significantly stronger typhoon that the team may encounter in the future.

In addition to evaluating field operations, this exercise will assess crew performance under realistic conditions. Team members will be monitored for fatigue management, decision-making, situational awareness, adherence to operational procedures, and compliance with safety protocols. Any deficiencies or procedural issues identified during the exercise will be documented and incorporated into future training and operational improvements to enhance the team's overall preparedness and effectiveness.