12/11/2021
ABOUT THAT GERRARD/ONIKOYI 360DEGREES.
Sadly, the Owner is rumored to have died in the building, (I hope not), his pains seemingly wiped out, otherwise, were he to be alive, he would discover that multi-storey apartment buildings sales has gone into the abyss immediately his building collapse occured, he would have discovered that everyone who had paid for the apartment blocks still standing would want their money back and willing to sell for lesser than they bought.
He would have seen that LABSCA is a mean beast, as attempts to demolish the entire estate would be considered, that insurance companies don't pay for disasters which could have been avoided, moreover, where an expert report on the structural integrity bring an indictment as in the instant case .
The market for now will cool off for six months and up to about six years.
Once again, low rise buildings would see a surge in demand across board with detached buildings being the darling of the market.
I foresee harshest regime of buildings regulations for high rise buildings going forward whilst unknown developers may not get approval for highrise buildings altogether, financiers too would move away from apartment block funding unless they're probably specifying the contracting and building team.
Altogether, another blow to the real estate market.
On the Valuation side for the next 24months , I would apply a 16-32% discount on apartment buildings valuation in Ikoyi. Premium may reasonably be applicable for a range of 8-15% for low rise buildings with detached buildings receiving the higher band premium.
Regulations and Regulators deserve a sweeping review.
The Commissioner for Physical Planning and Urban Development ought to find a very acceptable and socially responsible public advocacy plank immediately. In saner climes , his ass would be singed. Reason being that the certification of building integrity at construction stages lies more with the Regulators and their perception.
Right now, all high buildings are suspicious and Lagos State Materials Testing Laboratory has a very tough public trust deficit and erosion of integrity to Manage for the Physical and Urban PlanningMinistry of Lagos State.
I saw a post also indicating that government sealed the building sometime in July 2020. We need to know what transpired which resulted in it's reopening. The unsealing process has probably been weighed more in the usual Nigerian context by our Civil and Public Servants. So yes, due to this assumptive , disturbing mindset, I will apply that discount over the value of all high rise buildings in Ikoyi and environs unless and until a structural integrity test proves otherwise.
Sincerely, I recommend that midrise and highrise buildings in Lagos State be tested for structural integrity and I align with the decision of HE Babajide Sanwoolu to this effect, however, Lagos State has the largest number of midrise and highrise buildings in the Country, but the tools to effect such a decision efficiently is the issue.
Of all the states of the Federation, Lagos State has the best equipment for Emergency Response and Management, no doubt more funds need to be ploughed into Disaster Prevention.
So far, on the disaster response and management of the Gérard/Onikoyi building collapse, HE Sanwoolu is moving in the right direction.
May GOD continue to be our guide!
President REPAN