09/07/2026
If you can make it all the way to the end of this post, please memorize the last few sentences at the end. I apologize if this feels a bit more ominous than Part 1.
This is Part 2 of a 4-part series about El Nino.
The goal is to explain in the simplest terms possible what El Nino is and why it has far-reaching implications.
Rippeology subscribers have agreed that these posts should be open to all and made shareable. Huge thanks to those of you who shared part 1 yesterday.
This second part explains the current Nino forecast and how it will impact climate and weather all the way around the globe. Later, we’ll zero in on impacts here in the Midwest.
Q: How intense do we expect this year’s El Nino to be?
A: If you read part 1 yesterday, you know that “Super” El Nino is a warming of surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that’s 2.0 or more degrees Celsius above the 30-year norms from 1991-2020.
Our last Super El Nino, in 2015-2016, reached 2.4 degrees Celsius above normal.
Ensemble models this summer have been very consistent – and very persistent. Each monthly run of projections goes higher and higher. Based on early July data, this El Nino is projected to hit +3.0 minimum, and perhaps as high as +4.4 maximum. It could still go up in future forecasts.
NOAA has twice extended the “Y” axis on these charts – for the first time ever, entertaining the idea that +5.0 degrees Celsius is on the table.
Currently, the MEAN is +3.9 (Euro ensembles). Ben Noll modelled what that would look like in the attached image at November peak.
Q: How does that stack up to prior El Ninos?
A: It literally blows everything away.
The most intense El Nino occurred in 1877-1878, using data historically extrapolated. That event killed tens of millions of people around the world, completely reshaped agriculture, changed the definition of winter in many countries, and surprised scientists studying famine, flooding and drought.
It was devastating. And few understood what was happening and why. Remember that this was right at the very beginning of what the U.S. viewed as the industrial revolution. Other countries closer to the equator – Brazil, India, China – had little concept of what was happening and suffered the greatest loss of human life.
And food. The loss of food was immense. Starvation was rampant.
Q: So this year could be worse than that? How does ocean water impact the entire globe?
A: I want to say this straight out so there’s no confusion: there is NO precedent for what weather models, meteorologists, oceanographers and climate scientists believe is about to happen.
We are seriously only guessing right now.
150 years after the 1877-78 event, we are better prepared as a civilization. The problem is, we’re not quite sure what we’re preparing FOR. Or WHERE we should prepare for it.
You have a pot of water on the stove. You’re boiling it to make pasta. As the water heats, it ev***rates and steams upward. You turn on the hood fan to vent some of that steam.
But our atmosphere has no hood fan. It’s going to store all of that v***r. All of that heat. No exhaust. And so dominoes start to fall.
The downhill impacts of this kind of event are staggering. Warm Pacific waters heighten the Pacific hurricane season, but horizontal shear stifles the Atlantic hurricane season. Central America is very much caught in the middle of an atmospheric argument. Small, but potentially explosive storms form in the Gulf. A southern jet stream runs west to east from California to the Carolinas, bringing floods and cooler than normal temperatures. Farther north, temperatures are hot and conditions are dry all the way into southern Canada, exacerbating wildfires. Dominoes start to fall to the east as oscillation patterns in the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean are upended completely, and flooding and drought could be just 100 miles away from each other. Ocean currents react and stop transporting water north and south, sort of going into self-preservation mode. Air quality degrades. The typical undulation of jet streams that creates seasons is no longer operational, and winter feels a whole lot like spring.
That last sentence IS the primary impact of what is about to happen. El Nino will, and always has, CHANGED JET STREAMS. Heat and water v***r navigate jet streams, and in the next 9 months, they’ll take turns we have not seen in at least 150 years.
Jet streams are everything. THEY SEPARATE AIR MASSES. They RULE everything. Temperatures, drought, flooding, famine, fire, erosion, air pressure, air quality, stress on tectonic plates, stress on volcanoes, extinction of marine life.
EVERYTHING.
You guys know me well enough to know that I’m not a particularly alarmist weather dude. So forgive me if I’m now sounding the alarm. This is serious s**t.
There’s more. Part 3 coming tomorrow.