30/10/2026
🚨 EMPTY POSTS. EARLY RELEASE. OVERLOADED PROBATION.
WHO IS PROTECTING THE PUBLIC?
Apparently, the answer to a prison capacity crisis is to release prisoners earlier and hand the responsibility to another service already desperately short of staff.
What could possibly go wrong?
The government’s own June 2026 figures show public sector prisons and youth custody establishments 1,892 full-time equivalent Band 3 - 5 officers below target staffing.
Among the biggest shortfalls:
🔴 Full Sutton: 108 below target
🔴 Long Lartin: 99 below target
🔴 Cookham Wood: 96 below target
🔴 Whitemoor: 90 below target
🔴 Swaleside: 69 below target
🔴 Woodhill: 64 below target
These are published staffing targets, not a count of officers available on the landings. Sickness, training and other absences affect actual deployment. Overtime and borrowed staff can help cover gaps, but they cannot substitute indefinitely for a properly staffed service.
And these shortages have causes.
The independent Prison Service Pay Review Body records concerns about pay and living costs, recruitment and retention, poor morale, increasing violence and population pressures.
You cannot keep exposing people to danger, exhausting their goodwill and losing their experience, then act surprised when filling the uniform becomes harder.
Inside prisons, shortages restrict regimes, rehabilitation and meaningful contact with staff. Pressure falls on the officers who remain, while opportunities to prepare people properly for release are squeezed.
Then comes the political solution: EARLY RELEASE!
The cell becomes available. The responsibility moves into the community.
But probation officers must still assess risk, check safeguarding information, arrange supervision, coordinate with other agencies and respond when someone’s behaviour deteriorates.
That requires time, experience and staff.
In June 2026, the Probation Service had 5,445 full-time equivalent probation officers against a target of 7,380.
A shortfall of 1,935. More than one in four of the required probation officer posts missing.
Recruiting trainees matters. But a training place today does not instantly provide an experienced practitioner ready to manage a complex, high-risk caseload tomorrow.
Inspectors have identified staffing gaps, inexperience, weaknesses in information sharing and the burden of repeated change. Their London inspection found that prison release initiatives added substantial pressure to an already stretched service.
The public protection consequences are real.
Less capacity means less time to investigate warning signs, challenge concerning behaviour, obtain crucial information and act before risk escalates.
That does not mean every person released early will reoffend. It means safe supervision needs resources, and political announcements cannot provide them.
The Conservatives must answer for the condition in which they left these services. Labour must answer for the decisions it is making now.
“Inherited problems” do not excuse today’s decisions.
Recruitment promises do not fill today’s gaps.
Moving pressure from a prison wing to a probation office does not make it disappear.
CJWU wants sustainable staffing, experienced staff retained, manageable workloads and release arrangements matched to the capacity to supervise safely.
Now look prison staff, probation staff, victims and the public in the eye and tell them the two main political parties have managed this crisis effectively.
We will wait…