22/09/2026
The Horn of Africa Must Act Before El Niño Becomes a Humanitarian Crisis
A strengthening El Niño is confronting the Horn of Africa with a familiar question: will governments and international partners act on early warnings, or wait until communities face hunger, displacement and disease?
The World Meteorological Organization and the United States Climate Prediction Center have warned that El Niño could become very strong. Although its effects will vary across the region, the forecasts demand immediate preparedness.
Ethiopia’s Somali Region is particularly vulnerable. Pastoral and agro-pastoral families depend on seasonal rainfall, water, pasture, livestock health and functioning markets. In water-stressed areas such as Siti and Fafan, delayed rainfall or prolonged dry spells can rapidly increase pressure on boreholes, shallow wells and grazing land. Meanwhile, intense rainfall may cause flash floods, damage roads, contaminate water sources and increase the risk of waterborne diseases.
Preparedness must therefore address drought and flooding simultaneously.
Three priorities cannot wait:
1. Release anticipatory financing early. Funding should be activated using agreed indicators for rainfall, vegetation, water availability, livestock conditions, markets and nutrition—not only after an emergency is declared.
2. Protect water systems and livelihoods. Authorities should urgently repair boreholes, shallow wells and birkads, position essential supplies near vulnerable communities, support veterinary services and protect livestock before families are forced into distress sales.
3. Strengthen locally led action. Local civil-society organizations should receive adequate funding and operational responsibilities because they possess community trust, language skills and access to remote areas. Preparedness plans, funding gaps and priority districts should also be publicly communicated.
El Niño forecasts cannot predict conditions in every district with complete certainty. But uncertainty is not an excuse for delay. Governments routinely make decisions under uncertainty in public health, security and economic policy. Climate risk deserves the same seriousness.
Success should not be measured by how many emergency meetings are held after conditions deteriorate. It should be measured by whether water systems continue functioning, livestock are protected, disease outbreaks are contained and families avoid displacement and acute hunger.
The Horn of Africa must move from warning about disasters to preventing them.
Hirsi Abdulkadir Mohamed
Executive Director, Save the Rural Society (SRS)
