Tim's Severe Weather

Tim's Severe Weather Tim's Severe Weather is a weather prediction centre for severe weather forecasts for Queensland & New South Wales. Get daily weather forecasts for your region.

Severe storm & cyclone forecasts and long term weather. Accurate and dedicated.

🔴Thunderstorms are expected to fire up from NW QLD and extend down through parts of central QLD, the Darling Downs and M...
07/11/2025

🔴Thunderstorms are expected to fire up from NW QLD and extend down through parts of central QLD, the Darling Downs and Maranoa and most of eastern NSW during the afternoon and evening.
These thunderstorms could also affect far SE QLD in the evening as well.
See this post: https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AK8Z4wvXQ/ for a local forecast for this region.
Some of these thunderstorms may become severe with ⚠️DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
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Images are courtesy of https://metcentre.weatherwatch.net.au/ and show CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) @ 1 PM on 08/11

07/11/2025

🔴A line of thunderstorms could move through the SE QLD and NE NSW regions tomorrow afternoon (Sat 08/11).
The thunderstorms could be severe as they develop over the Darling Downs and spread out into thundery rain in the evening as they approach the coast.
See this post for QLD and NSW statewide thunderstorm forecast: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EB2Dyqmj4/
Resources: Live weather warnings: https://timsweather.au/weather-warnings/
Radar and lightning tracker: https://timsweather.au/best-lightning-tracker/
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Video is an image sequence taken from the ACCESS C numerical weather modelling and shows possible predicted radar from 1PM - 12 AM on 08/11

How fast can I get 1000 likes & comments😎
06/11/2025

How fast can I get 1000 likes & comments😎

Australia may light up like a disco on Saturday (15/11) as a widespread thunderstorm outbreak develops across parts of t...
06/11/2025

Australia may light up like a disco on Saturday (15/11) as a widespread thunderstorm outbreak develops across parts of the country.
Keep in mind this is a snapshot in time as to where the thunderstorms may develop @ 4 PM.
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November Long-Term Rainfall ForecastThis is possible accumulated rainfall and rainfall anomaly for the month of November...
06/11/2025

November Long-Term Rainfall Forecast
This is possible accumulated rainfall and rainfall anomaly for the month of November based on the ECMWF Ensemble Mean.
The rainfall anomaly video shows slightly less rainfall for large parts of NSW and for parts of southern QLD.
If you are in the brown colored regions, it means you may get 5-10mm less than normal. It does not mean you will have no rain.

05/11/2025

🔴Possible Large-Scale Heavy Rainfall Event Developing QLD and NSW
⦿When: 16/11 - 18/11
⦿Weather Situation:
A tropical low or disturbance in the North Western Australian ocean (Timor Sea region) could develop and impact the Kimberly and the NW Northern Territory region on or about the 14/11.
This will allow Indian Ocean moisture to stream down a trough or area of broad low pressure that will develop in the wake of the tropical low. This area of low pressure will extend down into the QLD and NSW regions and sweep across both states from about 16/11 to 18/11.
Generating areas of scattered thunderstorms and ⚠️POSSIBLE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL as it draws in moisture from the NE Indian Ocean and the Coral Sea as it moves east.
(Neg IOD and weak La Nina combining - higher than normal SSTs (Sea Surface Temps) in the NE Indian Ocean and Northern Coral Sea)
I'll have more updates.
⦿Resources: AIFS Rainfall forecast map and intensities: https://timsweather.au/weather-charts-maps/rain-forecast-australia/
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Images courtesy of https://charts.ecmwf.int/ and show rainfall intensities over the rain event (14/11 - 18/11)

05/11/2025

A rain gauge in Vietnam recorded an astonishing 1.8 metres of rain in 24 hours, among the highest totals ever measured on Earth.

05/11/2025

The next major large-scale rain-bearing system for QLD and NSW is set to begin this Sat and through to Mon
⦿Sat (08/11)
A region of convective activity (thunderstorms) may develop from about NW QLD, extending down through the QLD interior and over the Maranoa and Darling Downs and into eastern NSW during the afternoon.
With some storms possibly extending into far SE QLD (Brisbane, Gold Coast) late Sat night.
⦿Sun (09/11)
A continuation of thunderstorm development, but this time over adjacent inland regions (and coastal mostly) of the coast from about Cairns down to Gympie, with some light patchy rain areas further south to the QLD border.
⦿Mon (10/11)
More thunderstorms developing over coastal regions (and adjacent inland areas) between Cooktown and Tamworth. Although it may be more thundery rain areas from about the Sunshine Coast south.
⦿Of course, this all could change slightly, with a few more days to go before the event. I'll have more updates.
⦿Resources: AIFS rain intensities forecast (14 days): https://timsweather.au/weather-charts-maps/rain-forecast-australia/
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⦿The animation shows possible 24-hour rainfall totals over the rain event period and is courtesy of https://meteologix.com/au/

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