CSGEF - Center for the Study of Global Economic Futures

18/05/2026

https://csgef.org/the-middle-power-headway/
The global geopolitical landscape is shifting as middle powers like United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa actively cultivate strategic autonomy. In the first episode of our "Future Take" series, titled "The Middle Power Headway: Cultivating Strategic Autonomy by 2035," we analyze four plausible scenarios for this institutionalization: Full, Defensive, Partner, and Resilient Bastion. Each path presents distinct economic, geopolitical, technological, and strategic implications that will shape the international order.
Read the full Future Take titled The Middle Power Headway: Cultivating Strategic Autonomy by 2035 to explore these strategic scenarios for 2035 and understand the trade-offs involved
To learn more about our flagship foresight publication, Future Take, visit the Future Take section on our website: https://csgef.org/future-take/
This was brought to you by the Gulf & Global Development & Security Program (GGDS)

Middle powers are pursuing greater strategic autonomy by strengthening indigenous defense capabilities, diversifying partnerships, and adopting more proactive regional roles. This will be the trajectory by 2035, where strategic autonomy becomes institutionalized, although there is evidence that it r...

19/03/2026

Eid Al Fitr - Time for Respect, Reflection, and Celebration

As the crescent moon ushers in the joy of Eid Al Fitr, the Board, Management, & Teams at CSGEF (www.csgef.org) are honored to extend our heartfelt greetings to the esteemed leaders of the United Arab Emirates.

Our warmest wishes go to His Highness Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, Ruler of Abu Dhabi.
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai.
His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister of the UAE
His Highness Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, National Security Advisor, Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi
His Highness Sheikh Hazza Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Ruler's Representative in Al Ain Region & Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi
His Highness Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi,
To His Highness Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai & Minister of Defense of the UAE, To His Highness Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai, UAE Deputy Prime Minister & Finance Minister. To His Highness Sheikh Ahmed bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Second Deputy Ruler of Dubai and Chairman of the Dubai Media Council.
And to their Highnesses, Rulers of the Emirates, and to all the distinguished members of the UAE leadership, including Deputy Rulers & Crown Princes.

Your visionary leadership and unwavering dedication to the nation's progress have been the guiding stars on our shared pathway to prosperity. This Eid, we celebrate these achievements that resonate across our community and set a standard for the global stage.

And to the UAE and its people, as well as the Arab and Islamic nations, we wish you a blessed Eid filled with peace, happiness, and prosperity.

May this auspicious occasion bring renewed hope and joy to everyone around the world.

Eid Mubarak

11/03/2026

In the latest installment of our Economic Models Analysis series, Free Market: A Spectrum of Strategic Possibilities, we analyze Norway's social democratic market economy. A successful Scandinavian Model. This framework successfully balances the free-market with a welfare state, offering a strategic blueprint for long-term national stability.

Dr. Renny Castaneda, Assistant Professor - College of Security and Global Studies at the American University of the Emirates ( https://lnkd.in/d2n5mcKZ ) and CEO of the Institute of Political Studies & Applied Sciences (EPOCA), explores how Norway's social democratic market economy presents a compelling case study of a Scandinavian success story. It’s a framework that successfully balances free-market principles with a welfare state, providing a strategic blueprint for long-term national stability.


His analysis explores the key drivers behind this model:
-Strategic Governance: The Government Pension Fund Global ensures intergenerational equity and mitigates commodity price shocks.
-Cultural Foundations: High societal trust, collective modesty, and respect for nature reinforce institutional discipline.
-Economic Diversification: A focus on STEM education and green energy, including carbon capture and offshore wind, future-proofs the economy.

Norway's example demonstrates that enduring prosperity is built on excellent governance and forward-thinking policy, not just resource abundance.

To read the article, visit the Norway Golden Era article page : https://lnkd.in/g-mJsQ9z

Or visit the Economic Models Analysis — Free Market-Based Economic System: A Spectrum of Strategic Possibilities section on our webpage to learn more about the series, its purpose, and key themes: https://csgef.org/norway-golden-era/

This episode is brought to you by the GRAND (Global, Regional, and National Development) program at CSGEF, dedicated to shaping the future of development & development economics initiatives

Dr. Renny Castaneda

28/02/2026

New Analysis by CSGEF Research Unit
The global trading order is undergoing a fundamental restructuring. Pax Silica, a economic strategic initiative by the US State Department, represents a strategic departure from efficiency-driven globalization toward resilience-centered economic architecture built on alliance networks.
This framework institutionalizes AI supply chain security through coordinated governance of semiconductor inputs, critical minerals, and technology standards among trusted partner states. For the UAE, participation offers integration into high-value supply chains while maintaining diverse trade relationships—a model of strategic positioning in an era of geoeconomic segmentation.
As the IMF warns of potential output losses from rigid bloc formation, Pax Silica exemplifies the tension between supply chain resilience and systemic bifurcation.
Read the full analysis in “ANALYTICS”—CSGEF In-Depth Research and Evidence-Based Insights -to understand how this impacts global supply chain security & resilience: https://csgef.org/pax-silica/
This was brought to you by the Future of the Gulf & Global Development & Security Program (GGDS) , The Future of Global Supply Chain Program (GSC&T) , The Future of AI & Digital Economy Program (FAIDE)

CSGEF Research Unit

16/02/2026

China’s Strategic Play in U.S.–Iran Relations
Prof. Derek J. Grossman, Non-Resident Fellow at the Future of Gulf and Global Development & Security Program at CSGEF and A National security and Indo-Pacific Expert , shares a compelling analysis:
China’s public calls for peace between the U.S. and Iran mask a deeper strategy. Prolonged U.S.–Iran tensions:
• Keep Washington tied to the Middle East
• Allow China greater freedom in the Indo-Pacific (esp. Taiwan)
• Strengthen Iran’s reliance on Beijing

China’s support for Iran isn’t altruistic—it’s strategic. A genuine U.S.–Iran peace deal would actually undermine Beijing’s interests.
Prof. Derek Grossman is Founder and Chief Analyst of Indo-Pacific Solutions, LLC, Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program for the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) , Professor of the Practice of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California , and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Yusof Ishak Center in Singapore , and a former professor of policy analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy
Read the full analysis in “ANALYTICS”—CSGEF In-Depth Research and Evidence-Based Insights -to understand how this impacts global security and the Indo-Pacific: https://csgef.org/why-china-doesnt-want-the-u-s-and-iran-to-make-peace/

Dr. Derek Grossman

25/12/2025

As Christmas approaches, the Board, Management, and entire team at CSGEF extend our warmest wishes to you and your colleagues, friends, and families.
Thank you for your continued support and collaboration throughout the year. May this festive season bring you joy, peace, and cherished moments with family and friends.
Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!

Best,
CSGEF Board, Management, and Team
Center for the Study of Global Economic Future
Dubai, UAE.

24/07/2025

Visit our website to read the complete analysis.
https://csgef.org/chinas-national-security-strategy-doctrine/
CSGEF is pleased to share insights from our latest paper, "China’s National Security Strategy Doctrine: An In-Depth Examination," part of the National Security Strategy Doctrine Assessment series.

The end of the Cold War ushered in a unipolar world dominated by the United States. However, China’s rapid economic ascent and its ambitions for military parity are reshaping global power dynamics. This power tussle, predominantly in the economic arena, carries potential risks that could escalate into military confrontations if miscalculations unfold.

Understanding the security doctrines of these competing powers is vital for anticipating shifts in global relations. Our research unit at CSGEF employed the CSGEF NSS Audit framework to assess China's National Security Strategy within this complex backdrop.

This was brought to you by the Future of Gulf & Global Development & Security Program (GGDS) .

Looking forward to your thoughts on this pivotal topic

Please read the complete analysis by clicking the link below and share your thoughts

The end of Cold War ensued a unipolar world with the United States as the sole superpower. However, the rapid economic rise of China,..

24/07/2025

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGdYwHMs54U&t=35s&ab_channel=CSGEF
MULTILATERALISM BETWEEN HOPE AND HURDLE: INSIGHTS FROM MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE 2025: PART II THE UNITED STATES' MAGNA CARTA
In the first installment of our documentary series, “Multilateralism Between Hope and Hurdle: Insights from the Munich Security Conference 2025,” titled “I – Multi-polarization,” we probed the significant global shift towards multipolarity, with the US and China at the forefront of defense spending. The dynamics of emerging economies, Russia's actions in Ukraine, and rising European nationalism present complex challenges that require a nuanced understanding of today's geopolitical landscape.

Now, in Part II titled “The United States' Magna Carta,” the Center for the Study of Global Economic Future (CSGEF) CSGEF Documentary Unit (CDU) explores the evolving role of the US within this multipolar order. With a notable shift in foreign policy under the new administration—characterized by a selective and often unilateral approach that favors American interests—we confront critical questions about the future US engagement on the global stage. Experts suggest this transformation could usher in an increasingly multipolar world.

Also, stay tuned as we prepare to unveil the following:
Part III “China - Pole Position.”
Part IV “European Union- A Perfect Polar Storm”
Part V “Russia- The Czar’s Gambit”
Part VI “India-Modi-fied Status”
Part VII “Brazil- Lula Land”
Part VIII “Japan-A New Normal”
Part IX “South Africa-The Fate of God Hope”

CSGEF Documentary Unit (CDU) appreciates your dedication as we work together to address these critical issues. If you have any questions or feedback, don’t hesitate to contact us at [email protected].

MULTILATERALISM BETWEEN HOPE AND HURDLE: INSIGHTS FROM MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE 2025: PART II THE UNITED STATES' MAGNA CARTAIn the first installment of our...

03/06/2025

The Center for the Study of Global Economic Future (CSGEF) is pleased to share the launch of PART 1- Multilateralism of our documentary, “Multilateralism Between Hope and Hurdle: Insights from Munich Security Conference 2025.” Produced by the CSGEF Documentary Unit, this film explores the profound shift towards a multipolar world, where power dynamics are evolving, and new actors emerge globally.

As we rummage into potential "poles" in this emerging order, we confront a dual narrative. While a more just and peaceful multipolar landscape offers hope for fairer governance and reduced hegemony, it raises pivotal challenges: escalating inequalities, threats to human rights, and heightened risks of conflict.

The intricate dance between different varieties of governance models underscores this complex reality. With mixed sentiments permeating global discourse, there is an urgent call for us all to engage thoughtfully in these changes. Let us strive for inclusiveness while navigating the hurdles accompanying this unprecedented transformation.

Global leaders, Policymakers, and thought leaders, we invite you to join this vital conversation to uncover insights into our rapidly multipolar world.

This was brought to you by the Future of Gulf & Global Development & Security Program (GGDS)
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The Center for the Study of Global Economic Future (CSGEF) is pleased to share the launch of PART 1- Multilateralism of our documentary, “Multilateralism Bet...

11/03/2025

https://csgef.org/arabian-gulf-from-2025-2029/
Welcome to the CSGEF Visual Insight Series: World, Regional & National Economic Outlook. This edition investigates the economic landscape of the Arabian Gulf in the MECA region from 2025 to 2029. Visual Insights forecasts a promising and prosperous future for the Arabian Gulf region. From 2025 to 2029; the economic outlook showcases a strong tapestry of growth trajectories across the MECA area.
The UAE stands out with a robust projected growth, starting at an impressive 5.05% in 2025 and gradually stabilizing at 4.25% by 2029. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is set for a rebound, expecting to reach 4.57% in 2025 before gradually tapering to about 3.5% by 2029.
Other Gulf nations bring their own parables; Qatar is poised for remarkable growth, peaking at an exhilarating 7.8% in 2027 but then facing some decline. In contrast, Kuwait and Bahrain are anticipated to experience steadier yet more modest growth.
These economic transformations highlight the diverse development stages within our region, reflecting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The future looks promising as we continue circumnavigating these evolving economic dynamics.
What are your thoughts on these projections? Share your perspective below
Explore these data visuals by visiting the Visual Insights section at www.csgef.org/visualinsights
This series is proudly presented by the Future of Global, Regional, and National Development Plans (GRAND)